re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev posted a detailed call for the total elimination of the Ukrainian state and its absorption into the Russian Federation under what he euphemistically called a “peace formula.” Medvedev’s demands are not novel but rather represent the Kremlin’s actual intentions for Ukraine—intentions that leave no room for negotiations for purposes other than setting the precise terms of Ukraine’s complete capitulation.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 14 that unspecified Ukrainian units that have been deployed to frontline for a long time have started rotations.

Russian forces may be currently committing tactical and operational reserves to fighting in eastern Ukraine in an effort to maintain and potentially intensify the tempo of ongoing Russian offensive operations.

The Russian ability to make significant gains is still dependent on the level of Western support for Ukraine, however, and continued delays in Western security assistance will increase the risk of operationally significant Russian gains in the long run.

Reported Russian transfers of tactical reserves to new areas of the frontline demonstrate Russia’s likely ability to dynamically balance and reweight their offensive efforts.

British outlet The Times reported on March 14 that the British government believes that Russia deliberately jammed the satellite signal on a plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps back to the UK from Poland.

Continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russian border regions will likely force the Kremlin to choose between paying a reputational or resource cost in responding to the incursions.

The Kremlin must choose a balance between acceptable reputational and resource costs, but the Kremlin may not suffer as high a reputational cost in 2024 as it did in 2023 due to ongoing censorship efforts.

Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements across the theater on March 14.

Russian regional governments have reportedly increased economic incentives for Russian volunteers to sign contracts for military service.

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Russian forces may be currently committing tactical and operational reserves to fighting in eastern Ukraine in an effort to maintain and potentially intensify the tempo of ongoing Russian offensive operations.

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In other words culmination is near. A few more weeks and Russia will have punched itself out

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Anyone who thinks this ends in Ukraine is fooling themselves.

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This seems to objectively be becoming reality. We can talk about how much more advanced and skilled our military is, the strength of NATO, on and on. Doesn’t change that foolish decisions in war are made all through history and Russia is not unaligned, whether for mutual gain or lopsided to their partner’s favor, but they are there.

As we learned prior to WWII, it is better to nip this aggression in the bud than to appease hoping for peace, I’m afraid we’re going to learn it is better to completely and swiftly nip it in the bud when you decide to.

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Lima Whiskey

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You need to leave the thread for a while.

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Macron threw Scholz and Germany under the bus several times with his redline comments which was in reference to Scholz’s comments about Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

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Macron is preparing the ground for today's big meeting between the leaders of France, Germany and Poland.

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The most effective response to Putin's ceremonial, Tsarist elections, which began today, is for the Weimar Triangle to roll out a decisive, robust, and timely strategy to defeat Russia and support Ukraine. Germany must realize that it is in a strategic confrontation with Russia.

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This would be a good response to Putin's election, but there probably will be more and greater demonstrations of Putin's limited control during the election starting today.

If Macron really wants to put up, he could take the handcuffs off the SCALP cruise missiles donated to Ukraine. These have a longer range version of 550 km, greater than the distance between Kyiv and the Kerch Bridge. Nothing says Congrats on the Election Vlad like the Kerch Bridge blown to bits.

Ukrainian Defence Intelligence drones hit oil refinery in Russia's Kaluga Oblast – video
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Friday, 15 March 2024, 09:58

Ukrainian drones attacked the Pervyy Zavod (lit. "First Plant") oil refinery in Russia's Kaluga Oblast on the night of 14-15 March.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda's source in Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU)

Details: The source said the UAVs successfully reached their target and struck it.

Ukrainska Pravda's source also stressed that the Putin regime was using this facility for military purposes.

Ukrainska Pravda

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Ukrainian Defence Intelligence drones hit oil refinery in Russia's Kaluga Oblast – video VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Friday, 15 March 2024, 09:58

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Beat me to it.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 March 2024

Following a series of significant Russian vessel losses in the Black Sea, on 10 March 2024, the Commander in Chief of the Russian Federation Navy, Admiral Nikolay Anatolyevich Yevmenov, was highly likely removed from the position and replaced by Northern Fleet commander, Admiral Aleksandr Alekseyevich Moiseyev.

The sacking of Admiral Yevmenov comes after the removal of the second Black Sea Fleet commander since February 2022 and follows the loss of the SERGEY KOTOV corvette on 5 March 2024, the ninth major vessel to be lost to Ukrainian action since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Although a career submariner, prior to his appointment as Northern Fleet Commander, Admiral Moiseyev held command of the Black Sea Fleet between 2018 and 2019. It is likely that Admiral Moiseyev's first task as Commander in Chief of the Navy will be to stabilise the security situation in the Black Sea and implement changes designed to improve the Black Sea Fleet's combat capability in the region.

so between the USA and Canada, 2100 volunteers have gone to Ukraine and over 900 of them have been killed?

Do you even stop to consider how entirely absurd that is? Or do you just puke out any bit of Russian propaganda that you can get your hands on?

So, Wikipedia has documented 52 Americans and 5 Canadians (military and civilian) killed in Ukraine since Russia's invasion 2 years ago.

I'm sure there have been a handful more not documented or not yet reported. So I'll say maybe 100 on the top end.

But you say it's 900. And you honestly, objectively believe that's correct?