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GOP_Tiger
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | Baton Rouge |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 21184 |
| Registered on: | 1/13/2005 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/22/26 at 6:49 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
And coincidentally, also in Samara Oblast, Wildberries competitor Ozon was hit.
I wondered when Ukraine was going to start hitting Ozon. I think they refrained for a while, because to inflict the maximum financial pressure on Wildberries, it was actually helpful to have customers and suppliers switch over to Ozon.
Before recent events, WB had just over 40% of the Russian e-commerce market, while Ozon had 32%. About 2/3 of the goods sold by these retailers is sold by both, but WB has a big advantage in the apparel sector, while Ozon sells more electronics than its competitor, so the overlap isn't complete. If you're an ordinary Muscovite who has primarily been a Wildberries customer, you can keep ordering from WB and get your items in a week or so when the postal service delivers them from some distant region, or you can order from Ozon and get your stuff next day — lots of people would switch. And every customer who switches puts even more pressure on the WB bank.
In the US, Amazon also has 40% of our e-commerce market, but its closest competitor is Walmart+ with only 9%. So, Ozon is a much larger competitor to WB than any competitor is to Amazon in the US.
1
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/19/26 at 10:34 am to Chromdome35
I mean, eventually, if current trends continue, Russia will eventually take it— probably early 2028.
quote:
What am I missing?
I don't think you're missing anything. I think someone got their wires crossed.
The idea that Ukraine is going to give up the rest of the Donbas in exchange for peace is absurd. That was the "Spirit of Anchorage"— what Putin wanted a year ago.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/16/26 at 2:39 pm to VolSquatch
Today, the Ukrainian defense ministry claimed that July was the deadliest month ever for Russian soldiers, with 42,860 ****** [Edit: should say "casualties"].
Obviously, this is from a highly biased source, but I think the circumstantial evidence does indicate that Russian casualties have been trending higher.
Obviously, this is from a highly biased source, but I think the circumstantial evidence does indicate that Russian casualties have been trending higher.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/16/26 at 12:06 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Their high casualty rate is also inherently deflationary.
Au contraire. The casualty rate requires the recruitment of 30,000 soldiers every month, which leaves Russian industry increasingly desperate to find workers, which leads to wage inflation. Russia's unemployment rate is something like 2.2%.
The more I think about the Wildberries situation, the more skeptical I am that they can pretend to stay in business after this— no matter how much money they get from the Russian government. All three of their Moscow warehouses have now been completely destroyed. If WB can't deliver in Moscow, how can it be a functioning service??
EDIT: I asked Gemini if WB will survive, and it says that they will, simply by forcing more costs onto sellers, using Russia Post more for longer range deliveries, and by increasingly decentralizing operations and storage, so that there are fewer high-value targets to take out.
But decentralizing defeats the whole point point of companies like wildberries,. It wrecks the economies of scale and imposes much higher costs for labor and shipping. And passing increased risk and cost onto sellers just means that those sellers will raise their prices.
So the real endgame here is not, by itself, trying to put WB out of business. Rather, it's to escalate the already high inflationary pressure on the Russian economy, which then forces the central bank to raise interest rates to try to keep the inflation under control.
EDIT: I asked Gemini if WB will survive, and it says that they will, simply by forcing more costs onto sellers, using Russia Post more for longer range deliveries, and by increasingly decentralizing operations and storage, so that there are fewer high-value targets to take out.
But decentralizing defeats the whole point point of companies like wildberries,. It wrecks the economies of scale and imposes much higher costs for labor and shipping. And passing increased risk and cost onto sellers just means that those sellers will raise their prices.
So the real endgame here is not, by itself, trying to put WB out of business. Rather, it's to escalate the already high inflationary pressure on the Russian economy, which then forces the central bank to raise interest rates to try to keep the inflation under control.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. The Europeans are increasingly active participants in this war, and that's why it's increasingly likely that Russia will lose. Ukraine is now too important of a partner for Europe's own defense.
re: Scientology vs Islam...or any religions shite
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/15/26 at 10:07 pm to 1loyalbamafan
quote:
My favorite author was isaac Asimov. back in the day......
Have you read another book since then? How long has it been since you read a book?
re: Tuscany/Val d' Orcia-Stay recommendations
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/15/26 at 10:06 pm to driftwoodtigerfan
In May, I stayed at the Laconda Palazzone outside Orvieto, and it was fantastic, but that's not in the Val d'Orcia (though reasonably close). We spent a day in the Val d'Orcia driving from Orvieto to Siena.
We loved Pienza for a few hours, and we also liked the Pecorino and wine tasting at Podere il Casale, if you want to tour a sheep dairy and see the cheese production process.
We loved Pienza for a few hours, and we also liked the Pecorino and wine tasting at Podere il Casale, if you want to tour a sheep dairy and see the cheese production process.
Another Wildberries taken off the map. This is the first one in a while to completely go up in smoke. Recently, Wildberries has had more success in containing those fires and putting them out. Not this time.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/15/26 at 8:25 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The two FP-5 Flamingos being launched.
Five were launched. Russian air defense took out the other three.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/13/26 at 12:07 pm to LARancher1991
The reason it's happening this way, of course, is that the Russian concept of victory involves the conquest of the rest of Donetsk Oblast, so their effort is concentrated in the East.
Ukraine is pushing hard in the South, because every kilometer that they are closer to Russian roads linking to Crimea makes it easier for their drones to hunt those logistics vehicles. The Ukrainian theory of victory very much involves consistently increasing the pressure on Crimea.
Ukraine is pushing hard in the South, because every kilometer that they are closer to Russian roads linking to Crimea makes it easier for their drones to hunt those logistics vehicles. The Ukrainian theory of victory very much involves consistently increasing the pressure on Crimea.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/13/26 at 11:16 am to LARancher1991
quote:
Russia is currently making a big push to take Kostiantynivka. This is what I meant when I said towards the south.
Yes, I would personally say Kostiantynivka is "East".
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/12/26 at 7:43 pm to LARancher1991
quote:
Russia's big push in the South
Wat?
Ukraine has made steady progress in the southern front this summer. A lot of it was just recently announced (though obvious for a while by geolocations of strike videos).
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If tweet fails to load, click here.quote:
The referendum was for independence from the Soviet Union, not the Russian Federation, which did not exist yet.
We all know that Comrade Nate doesn't care, But I will say this for everyone else: when Ukraine had its independence referendum, every other Soviet republic had already declared independence, with the one exception of Kazakhstan.
The USSR was only going to be Russia and Kazakhstan, and 92% of Ukrainians wanted out of that arrangement, including majorities in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.
quote:
They are.
Then why did they vote for independence from Russia? After the collapse of the USSR, they all voted in favor of leaving Russia and becoming part of an independent Ukraine. Even Crimea.
The fact that most people in Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk wanted to be Ukrainian obviously doesn't refute the fact that a lot of them still wanted to be Russian, and so of course Russia has found many willing collaborators in those regions.
But there's absolutely zero basis for your statement, and you know it.
Trey bulking up
Posted by GOP_Tiger on 8/11/26 at 9:02 pm
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If tweet fails to load, click here. This should really help with rebounding in defense. Trey has consistently added to his game each year. Is this the year that he becomes an All-Star?
I mean, maps are extremely relevant to the Russian theory of victory. They are not particularly relevant to the Ukrainian theory of victory.
So yeah, how important you think maps are is, at some level, a reflection of who you think is going to win.
So yeah, how important you think maps are is, at some level, a reflection of who you think is going to win.
Wow, this would be absolutely stunning if the encirclement is confirmed.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.I haven't been to Auckland, but I spent a week in the Queenstown area in 2019 with girls 14 and 13 years old, and we had an awesome time hiking the Routeburn Trek and also to the Mueller Hut near Mt. Cook. Milford Sound is spectacular, and the glowworm cave at Te Anau was great. Great trip.
I haven't been southern Spain or Portugal since 1992, but I was in Lisbon and the Azores twice in the last 10 years. The Azores might be my favorite place on Planet Earth (and I've traveled to 46 countries), but the weather is terrible in January and I can't recommend it. I just, in general, don't think that January is a good time to go anywhere in Spain or Portugal. The average low temp in Grenada in January is 35 degrees.
I haven't been southern Spain or Portugal since 1992, but I was in Lisbon and the Azores twice in the last 10 years. The Azores might be my favorite place on Planet Earth (and I've traveled to 46 countries), but the weather is terrible in January and I can't recommend it. I just, in general, don't think that January is a good time to go anywhere in Spain or Portugal. The average low temp in Grenada in January is 35 degrees.
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