doubleb

It looks like the air war and the political war is heating up; while little is happening in the ground war.

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Key Takeaways
Russian forces launched their fourth large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine since June 1 on the night of July 5 to 6. This latest strike series again heavily targeted Kyiv City and caused dozens of civilian casualties.
Russian forces are taking advantage of Ukraine’s depleted stocks of anti-ballistic missile interceptors to maximize the destructive potential of their strike packages. Russian forces have been decreasing the number of ballistic missiles in each strike package in recent weeks as Ukraine’s interception rate has declined.

Russian forces likely purposely timed this latest large-scale strike package to generate informational effects ahead of the July 7 to 8 NATO summit in Turkey.

Ukrainian forces conducted their deepest drone strike against Russia thus far in the war, striking the largest oil refinery in Russia over 2,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Russian officials are trying to present Russia as a willing negotiator and Ukraine as the obstacle to peace ahead of US President Donald Trump’s meetings with Ukraine and Europe at the July 7 to 8 NATO summit.

Russia is engaging in increasingly risky kinetic behaviors against NATO member states as part of its “Phase Zero” condition-setting campaign.

Ukrainian forces advanced in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions.

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ISW

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Don’t see any reason why a general mobilization wouldn’t increase the number of Russian infantrymen at the front by a significant percentage

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I agree. There should be a measurable difference. The big questions are how soon, how many they intend to draft, and how well will they be trained. After that how well will they be armed and supported.

There’s no argument that it would present s problem to Ukraine. Now how big of a problem remains to be seen.

After four plus years of war Ukraine has proven to be very resourceful.

We can’t build a bridge until we decide where to put it.

We are studying a plan now so that we can continue planning.

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9 square kilometers is not even a rounding error

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If you subtract the breakthrough Nate reported, it would only be 2 KM.

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Its OK little brother BR is here to help

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SG isn’t very old, but in the short time of its existence I’ve noticed more grass cutting, striping of streets, better accidents response and less vagrancy.

On the other hand, I can’t tell you one thing that’s worse now because of the change.

Long live SG and EBR Parish. At the end of the day it’s my wish that our small city becomes a bigger difference maker and we all prosper.

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Things will move extremely quick once we are near a resolution.

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Very insightful.

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I have no idea.

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We agree.

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I don’t know the future but I do put some effort into to trying to understand the present.

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So all these maps you post and predictions you present are all wishful thinking, and you really don’t know anything more than I do.

You mean you hope he doesn’t do another stupid thing, his war has been a huge disaster.

We shall see.

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Key Takeaways
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed late on July 3 that Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka, contrary to all available evidence of the true extent of Russian advances in the city. Putin likely staged the meeting with his commanders late on July 3 at least in part to influence Western media coverage of the war into the weekend, particularly the July 4 holiday in the United States.

The United States reportedly warned Poland that Russia is considering kinetic provocations against Poland and other NATO states.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating sharply fell in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline.

The Russian government continues efforts to increase domestic fuel supplies amid intensifying gasoline shortages across Russia.

Unknown actors reportedly detonated an explosive against a car carrying members of the Rylsk Raion, Kursk Oblast administration on July 3.

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces advanced on July 3.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a long-range strike against Russian energy infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast.

Russian forces launched two Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles and 105 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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ISW

Boom