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Registered on:11/18/2008
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Zelensky: Ukraine is quite rightly responding to Russia for its attacks on our country and for prolonging the war.

Today, our long-range sanctions have reached the Saratov region, Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, the distance from the front line is about 800, 1400 and 1500 kilometers.

Also – to the Voronezh region, which is about 300 kilometers from our border.

The Saratov oil refinery was hit. The SSO soldiers hit the oil refinery in Tatarstan. Russians should feel that their state is waging this war.
Damn, 9 more tankers last night in the Sea of Azov. 21 Russian vessels hit in 72 hours including 19 shadow-fleet tankers.

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If they are attacking airfields it tells you all air defence is gone.

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Jackpot: Russia’s largest oil refinery, the Omsk Oil Refinery, has suspended operations after a Ukrainian drone attack, Reuters reported. Sources said the CDU-10 crude distillation unit was damaged, while CDU-11 was shut down after supporting infrastructure was hit, disrupting about 75% of capacity.


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Will Saudi Arabia do more damage to the Russian budget than Western sanctions:

A) Yes;

B) No?


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Bloomberg:
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Some ominous oil export numbers for Moscow caused by Urals export supply now exceeding firm demand.

With the loss of so much refining capacity, Russia is being forced to export more crude and less product. But with the expiry of the US sanctions waiver in mid June, firm demand from India and elsewhere has dropped sharply, causing Urals export volumes to once again exceeding levels of firm demand, as happened back in December-January.

Consequently, unsold on-the-water inventories of Russian crude are rising. That supply overhang, in turn, is further widening the Brent-Urals spread, which exceeded $27 in the week up to July 3.

Moscow now faces a stark choice: maintain current production levels, and accept $40 Urals FOB prices that will further widen its gaping budget deficit? Or cut production, in hopes that higher Urals price will more than offset lost volumes. Either way, it's more bad news for the Kremlin.

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Well boys, buckle up. From this afternoon in Kyiv -
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Zelensky just drew a massive, bloody target directly over Russia's elite nerve centers, warning Putin that a storm of thousands of drones is about to shatter the illusion of safety in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

In a fierce, uncompromising statement, the Ukrainian President announced a dramatic escalation of deep-theater strikes, promising to bring the full horror of the war directly to the doorsteps of Russia's ruling class. Zelensky made it clear that as long as Ukrainian strikes avoided Russia's twin capitals, Putin felt insulated from his own aggression. However, the strategy is shifting completely: Ukraine intends to rain over a thousand drones down on Moscow and St. Petersburg to force the Kremlin and its trembling elites to face reality, panic for their lives, and run for cover beyond the Ural Mountains. This is the ultimate psychological and strategic masterstroke to break the back of the Russian occupation. By turning Russia's most affluent, decision-making capitals into active war zones, Ukraine is stripping Putin of his domestic stability and hitting the elites exactly where they sleep.

When the very people funding and ordering the slaughter of Ukrainians find themselves hiding in bomb shelters, the pressure on the Kremlin will become completely unsustainable—making Putin's retreat from Moscow the literal gateway to a Ukrainian victory.


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Recruitment is cracking. It fell 20% in the first quarter versus 2025; in Moscow, the number willing to sign a contract fell by a third this spring. The reason is the drone kill zone. Up to 90% of Russian casualties now come from FPV drones. 60% to 70% of soldiers are killed or wounded before they reach Ukrainian lines—many on foot or in civilian cars.


More Russian reaction to Omsk -

A.) It's not our job;

B.) We don't have the equipment and ammunition; and

C.) We can't shoot at drones when they are over populated areas.

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[quote] As noted by other warbloggers, yesterday's attack on the Omsk oil refinery required Ukrainian drones to fly at least 2,400 km [actually 3300km]. Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev points out that air defence teams often don't bother shooting down drones that pass through their areas:

3/ "The situation with the Omsk Oil Refinery raises the awkward question of "transit" regions—regions where local anti-drone enforcement agents operate based on the objective-based defence principle: if it's not aimed at us, let it fly on, as long as we or our facilities are not in the news.

Yes, you'd be surprised, but this approach does exist, and not all that uncommon.

5/ "I'll even quote one executive of a large enterprise who asked me point-blank at a meeting about equipping mobile task forces: "How are we even going to know what's heading specifically for our facility?"

6/ "In response to my wide-eyed reaction, he said: "Well, we have a mandate to defend our own property. If we use our ammunition outside our facility, management will hold us accountable—on what grounds was it used?"

7/ "And most importantly, they will. Accounting and control are our everything. Hence the conclusion. Our land may be private, but the sky is public. Anyone who doesn't understand this can already say goodbye to the property they consider "theirs."

"I'll put it more bluntly. The model we're developing, where counter-drone defence is the responsibility of the army's air defence plus [regional] governors, has proven its inadequacy in Omsk.

11/ "The army simply doesn't have the manpower to organize zonal defence, and army air defence isn't even a branch of the armed forces (as it used to be) but part of the Aerospace Forces, and a fifth wheel at that.

12/ "And the governors lack the authority, competence, and personnel: they assemble headquarters, issue orders, and then it turns out there's simply no one to carry them out.

14/ Chadeyev also draws attention to the implications of comments by Fire Point chief designer Denis Shtilerman, whose drones were used in the Omsk attack, that the operation took "more than a week" to plan:

"What does that mean? That the enemy is well aware of the location of our air defence position areas and also knows that they are static, not being changed or moved.

18/ "If we analyze the attack itself, we see that the brunt of the interception fell on the air force, with the target mobile task forces making virtually no contribution.

19/ "And the air force simply stopped using its weapons after the drones flew directly over residential areas—and that's understandable, too. The image of an SU-57 firing missiles at its own city of a million people isn't very impressive.

20/ "They shot down quite a few during approach, but not all. Simply put, there was a lack of proper defence layering.

LINK

A long and amusing recap of the Russian blogger's reactions to the attack on the refinery at Omsk. Reality sucks I guess.

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And the route the drones took is interesting as well. Sat comms doing work -



Route explanation.
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Ukrainian leader says Donald Trump has changed his mind about the conflict.
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When not a hundred drones, but a thousand will fly towards Moscow... Putin will understand," - Zelensky in an interview Financial Times

The president's main statements about the new phase of the war:

After containing Russia on land and at sea, the decisive confrontation will take place in the sky. Ukraine has already proven that it is capable of quickly seizing the initiative in airspace.

According to Zelensky, Donald Trump believes that Ukraine "is doing very well" with the use of long-range drones.

Europe needs to more actively share technologies and develop joint defense production, as there will never be enough Patriot systems for everyone.

A critical vulnerability of Ukraine remains anti-ballistic defense - this is what the president called the main gap in defense.

"When not a hundred drones, but a thousand will fly towards Moscow... Putin will understand. His advisors will advise him to move beyond the Urals. And the further he is from Moscow - the closer the end of the war will be".


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This A-50 AWACS aircraft, one of only three or four operating still, was used against the attacking drones at Omsk yesterday. But only one out of every seven drones were shot down.

It doesn't matter where the radar platform is, these drones are undetectable.

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The reduction in carbon tax will balance the budget by itself...



LINK
Russian anger, denial, acceptance...

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But these fricking debris, you understand, will still reach their target anyway.

:lol:
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Belgorod’s airport was reportedly hit by a missile strike, with a fire breaking out on the site.
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A reported missile strike targeted energy infrastructure in Russia's Belgorod, with a thermal power plant under attack. A large fire was reported at the site.
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The Linear Production Management of Main Gas Pipelines was attacked and is on fire in Belgorod, according to OSINT analysis by ASTRA.

According to ASTRA's analysis of eyewitness footage, one of the attacked objects is the Belgorod Linear Production Management of Main Gas Pipelines (Belgorod LPM) at 89A Michurina Street in Belgorod. A fire broke out. According to public data, LPM is a branch of LLC "Gazprom Transgaz Moscow", which is part of PJSC "Gazprom". The main task of the unit is to operate gas main transport facilities in the Belgorod region and ensure reliable transportation of natural gas to consumers in the region.
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Offshore heat signatures were also recorded near Kerch
Would these be the two gasoline tankers reported as hit yesterday?

:popcorn:

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