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StormyMcMan
| Favorite team: | Michigan |
| Location: | USA |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 4709 |
| Registered on: | 10/27/2016 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
re: Trump accounces economic "D Day" against Iran
Posted by StormyMcMan on 8/20/26 at 8:19 am to Tom288
quote:
There are two major problems with this. First, the people are still unarmed. Second, we can just look at Iraq and see how Saddam managed his people even after their economy crashed. He did anything necessary to subjugate his people, even when they were starving to death.
It turns out that Islamic fundamentalist regimes are perfectly capable of, & willing to, kill their own people to maintain power. It will be the same in Iran.
And North Korea. They've been on double secret probation for how long now?
re: Fauci and Covid Vaccine During Pregnancy
Posted by StormyMcMan on 8/18/26 at 8:20 am to STEVED00
quote:
I would like to see this data.
If you clicked on the little "1" after your quote it literally takes you to the study ( LINK
quote:
Results 435 studies were included. Overall, 9% (95% confidence interval 7% to 10%; 149 studies, 926 232 women) of pregnant and recently pregnant women attending or admitted to hospital for any reason were diagnosed as having suspected or confirmed covid-19. The most common clinical manifestations of covid-19 in pregnancy were fever and cough (both 36%). Compared with non-pregnant women of reproductive age, pregnant and recently pregnant women with covid-19 were less likely to report symptoms of fever, dyspnoea, cough, and myalgia. The odds of admission to an intensive care unit (odds ratio 2.61, 95% confidence interval 1.84 to 3.71; I2=85.6%), and invasive ventilation (2.41, 2.13 to 2.71; I2=0%) were higher in pregnant and recently pregnant than non-pregnant women of reproductive age. Overall, 970 pregnant women (0.2%, 123 studies, 179 981 women) with confirmed covid-19 died from any cause. In pregnant women with covid-19, non-white ethnicity, increased maternal age, high body mass index, any pre-existing maternal comorbidity including chronic hypertension and diabetes, and pregnancy specific complications such as gestational diabetes and pre-eclampsia, were associated with serious complications (severe covid-19, admission to an intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, and maternal death). Compared to pregnant women without covid-19, those with the disease had increased odds of maternal death (odds ratio 6.09, 95% confidence interval 1.82 to 20.38; I2=76.6%), of admission to the intensive care unit (5.41, 3.59 to 8.14; I2=57.0%), caesarean section (1.17, 1.01 to 1.36; I2=80.3%), and of preterm birth (1.57, 1.36 to 1.81; I2=49.3%). The odds of stillbirth (1.81, 1.38 to 2.37, I2=0%), and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (2.18, 1.46 to 3.26, I2=85.4%) were higher in babies born to women with covid-19 versus those without covid-19.
quote:
Conclusion Pregnant and recently pregnant women with covid-19 attending or admitted to the hospitals for any reason are less likely to manifest symptoms such as fever, cough, dyspnoea, and myalgia, but are more likely to be admitted to the intensive care unit or needing invasive ventilation than non-pregnant women of reproductive age. Pre-existing comorbidities, non-white ethnicity, chronic hypertension, pre-existing diabetes, high maternal age, and high body mass index are risk factors for severe covid-19 outcomes in pregnancy. Pregnant women with covid-19 versus without covid-19 are more likely to deliver preterm and have an increased risk of maternal death and of being admitted to the intensive care unit. Their babies are more likely to be admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit.
re: The Quiet Manufacturing Boom. Trump’s policies are working, but legacy media won’t show it
Posted by StormyMcMan on 8/17/26 at 11:33 am to loogaroo
quote:
Specifically, that ISM reading stands at 55 now, well above the 50 mark, which signals expansion. It has been rising for seven months.
Full context
quote:
The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 55.6 last month, the highest reading since May 2022, from 53.3 in June. Economists polled by ?Reuters had forecast the PMI would edge up to 54.0. The PMI this year has held above the 50 threshold, which indicates growth in the manufacturing sector.
Manufacturing, which ?accounts for about 9.4% of the economy, has been supported by businesses front-loading orders to avoid higher prices and shortages stemming from the war. An artificial intelligence buildout is also driving activity in the technology sector, blunting the ?hit on manufacturing from import tariffs.
With business inventories at very low levels, there is ample room for manufacturing to expand. The Fed reported last month that factory production grew at its fastest pace in four years in the second quarter.
Business inventories have ?declined for five straight quarters, the government reported last week.
quote:
The ISM survey's new orders measure rose to 56.7 last month from 56.0 in June. Export orders surged and unfinished work piled up, prompting factories to boost employment. A ?measure of manufacturing employment rebounded to 52.8, the highest level ?since August 2022, from 49.7 in June. Sixty ?percent of respondents reported their firms were hiring, while 40% indicated they continued to manage headcounts, the ISM said.
Strong demand is, however, running into supply constraints.
The survey's supplier deliveries index increased to 58.9 from 57.4 in June. A reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The lengthening in suppliers' delivery times likely contributed to the jump in the PMI last ?month, as it is normally associated with a strong economy and high demand.
Supply constraints meant inflation at the factory gate remained elevated last month, though the pace ?of increase slowed. The survey's gauge ?of prices paid for inputs slipped to a still-high 71.1 from 73.0 in June.
LINK
re: What famous person are you told that you look like ?
Posted by StormyMcMan on 8/12/26 at 4:37 pm to meeple

re: Good Morning Thread Friday Edition
Posted by StormyMcMan on 8/7/26 at 6:38 am to LSUtoBOOT
:gmt:
re: WYHI: She's good looking but she's a literal neo-Nazi
Posted by StormyMcMan on 8/5/26 at 6:11 am to Barbellthor
Fun side note
Prior to 1942 here is how Americans saluted the flag
LINK
Prior to 1942 here is how Americans saluted the flag
quote:
The Bellamy salute is a straightened hand and palm-down salute to the flag of the United States. Created by James B. Upham as the gesture that was to accompany the Pledge of Allegiance of the United States of America, whose text had been written by Francis Bellamy, it was known as the flag salute during the period when it was used, from 1892 to 1942, with the Pledge of Allegiance. Bellamy promoted the salute and thus it was retroactively renamed after him.
LINK
re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted by StormyMcMan on 8/3/26 at 12:47 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
r are they full of shite and anyone can search the net and see vessels are indeed going through the strait......though not to or from iran.
I mean both are true. Iran is shooting at ships that use the Omani scheme and some Iranian ships are getting through (not many though I think it's around 4 documented instances). Neither is 100% sealed off because that is much easier said than done, the plan is just to make it hard enough that most don't want to try (or the insurance cost is too high)
This is from the USNI (US Naval Institute)
quote:
Traffic levels in the Strait of Hormuz last week dropped yet again, bringing the flow of ships through the Middle East passageway to levels not seen since March, shortly after the conflict between Iran and the United States began.
Transits were down 52.4 percent between July 20 and Sunday from July 13-19, according to London-based Lloyd’s List Intelligence. From July 19 to Sunday, daily transits were in the single digits, with only two transits on July 23 and on Saturday.
While transits are down, the actual number of daily passages could be slightly higher as Lloyd’s List Intelligence confirms ships that went through the strait without their automatic identification systems on, Lloyd’s List Intelligence Maritime Intelligence & Research Director Bridget Diakun said during a Thursday webinar.
Despite the continued rise in tensions between Washington and Tehran, ship owners continue to send ships through the contested passageway, Diakun said.
“Things change,” Diakun said. “Things change quite quickly. If there are any credible positive developments at a geopolitical level, this picture will change immediately, and we’ll see, not a resurgence, but more ships going through.”
quote:
“We need to remember that if you want to disrupt maritime commerce, you don’t need much,” Ralby said.
July 31, 2026
re: Eye popping human population growth in the Congo
Posted by StormyMcMan on 8/1/26 at 5:18 pm to Spankum
Submitting without comment
1950 world population: 2.5 billion
2026 world population: 8.4 billion
1950 US population: 141 million
2026 US population: 349 million
1950 China population: 544 million
2026 China population: 1.5 billion
1950 Africa population: 227 million
2026 Africa population: 1.5 billion
1950 Vatican City population: 1,000
2026 Vatican City population: 850
1950 Monaco population: 19,666
2026 Monaco population: 38,050
1950 Greenland population: 23,642
2026 Greenland population: 55,629
1950 Australia population: 8.18 million
2026 Australia population: 28 million
1950 world population: 2.5 billion
2026 world population: 8.4 billion
1950 US population: 141 million
2026 US population: 349 million
1950 China population: 544 million
2026 China population: 1.5 billion
1950 Africa population: 227 million
2026 Africa population: 1.5 billion
1950 Vatican City population: 1,000
2026 Vatican City population: 850
1950 Monaco population: 19,666
2026 Monaco population: 38,050
1950 Greenland population: 23,642
2026 Greenland population: 55,629
1950 Australia population: 8.18 million
2026 Australia population: 28 million
re: COBRA health insurance
Posted by StormyMcMan on 7/26/26 at 4:58 pm to Reubaltaich
quote:
The FMLA is out of the picture due to 16 employees at my location (must have at least 20 employees for FMLA to be valid).
At your location or is that the size of the company?
It's 50 employees within 75 miles for FMLA
re: The Most Important Oval Office Address Since Cuban Missile Crisis - In Game Thread
Posted by StormyMcMan on 7/17/26 at 6:11 am to the808bass
quote:
The only reason paper ballots aren’t counted in one day is fraud.
Fun side note, Louisiana is the only state that has no paper backup to audit
re: Thoughts on food banks? This upstanding lady gets a full-service grocery haul
Posted by StormyMcMan on 7/14/26 at 9:45 am to BabyTac
quote:
Volunteered through work at a food bank one day basically loading boxes of groceries in people as they pulled through the line. I was amazed at the 100s of cars the supposedly ‘need’ the free food. 90% of them drive a nicer car than me and of course, never got out of the car or said thanks.
I know an incredibly poor family that uses food banks for their food. One of their chief complaints about it was that people with cars got first pick and those who had to walk got whatever was leftover.
re: 401(k) Hardship Withdrawal Rate - Are we concerned?
Posted by StormyMcMan on 7/8/26 at 6:14 am to MexicanBurtReynolds
quote:
I work in a plant. In every control room, folks brag about their 401k loans. Most have 2. Braces, boats, and vehicles are all the "hardships" these folks have.
One dude said he took out a loan and paid for his truck in cash
The only caveat I’d add is that a 401(k) loan is different from a hardship withdrawal.
With a loan, you’re required to pay yourself back, including interest, which is currently around 7% in many plans. So in a sense, you’re repaying your own account and partially replacing some of the market return you may have missed while the money was out of the plan which isn't the worst thing in the world (long term) so long as you are continuing normal deferrals.
That said, I’ve personally noticed an uptick in loans, especially for medical-related expenses. That’s where I really wish the IRS would issue clearer guidance on PLESAs. A properly implemented emergency savings option could help cover many of these situations before people feel forced to tap their retirement accounts.
re: EBR peeps, your Cox Cable services should be safer tonight
Posted by StormyMcMan on 7/8/26 at 6:04 am to Tarps99
quote:
There is quite a bit of copper in the old lines.
The WSJ did an article about this back in 2023 (albeit lead instead of copper)
quote:
Across the country, telecom companies have left behind more than 2,000 cables containing lead, a Wall Street Journal investigation has found, part of a decaying network installed under the old Bell System.
Reporters found cables protruding from banks, resting under bridges, snaking under water and drooping from the air at dozens of sites. Testing showed that many are leaching toxic metal into the ground and water.
Southern Louisiana’s 125-mile-long Bayou Teche flows through a region particularly dense with cables. Southern Bell filed permits with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers starting in the 1930s to place more than a dozen cables across the bayou.
Journal reporters, with the assistance of environmental researchers, tested the water in nine places along the bayou and the sediment in three of them. Of those 12 tests, eight showed elevated levels of lead. A sediment sample near the cable in New Iberia exceeded the safety recommendation set by the Environmental Protection Agency for areas where children play.
WSJ link (should be free)
re: DOJ and FTC press states to target any illegal activity contributing to high gas prices
Posted by StormyMcMan on 7/8/26 at 5:57 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Current spot market for gasoline (RBOB) is ~$2.95. Why use oil price to figure out gasoline prices when there is a spot market for the actual product?
Just to confirm that while WTI and RBOB tend to directionally move together RBOB is a much better gauge on actual gas prices. We started bombing Iran again and WTI goes up ~5%, RBOB only went up ~3%
Or in dollar terms
WTI -> ~$69 -> peaked at about $75 this morning -> currently at about $74
RBOB -> $2.96 -> peaked at about $3.02 this morning -> currently at about $2.98
re: New A/C System - Pay in Full or Finance?
Posted by StormyMcMan on 7/8/26 at 5:45 am to TheMagicMan
quote:
More importantly, I have the money to pay for the new A/C system outright. Would it be better to pay off in full at installation or finance?
This is actually a "simple" way to get this answer yourself.
Compare the interest rate to what you expect the market to return. If the interest rate is higher, buy it out right. If the market returns are higher, invest the money and finance.
re: DOJ and FTC press states to target any illegal activity contributing to high gas prices
Posted by StormyMcMan on 7/6/26 at 7:43 am to weskarl
Current spot market for gasoline (RBOB) is ~$2.95. Why use oil price to figure out gasoline prices when there is a spot market for the actual product?
re: Stopped by the Grand opening of Dolly Parton gas station
Posted by StormyMcMan on 6/26/26 at 1:13 pm to OWLFAN86
quote:
Dolly's Beaver would make a great mascot

re: 11 sick, 2 hospitalized in Louisiana after drinking raw milk
Posted by StormyMcMan on 6/24/26 at 8:55 am to Missouri Waltz
quote:
It never caused me any problems
quote:
Survivorship bias or survivor bias is a statistical error that results from concentrating on entities that passed a selection process while overlooking those that did not. This can lead to incorrect conclusions because of incomplete data.
Survivorship bias is a form of sampling bias that can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because multiple failures are overlooked, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than just a coincidence, as in correlation "proves" causality.
re: Obama was OK with enrichment for civilian purposes
Posted by StormyMcMan on 6/17/26 at 7:26 pm to Stidham8

re: I respect Trump doing the right thing now in Iran even though the war was a mistake.
Posted by StormyMcMan on 6/17/26 at 3:17 pm to MMauler
quote:
quote:
We're paying at least $300 billion to rebuild Iran.......
You just can't be THIS F*CKING STUPID.
Of course, given the rest of your post, it’s clear you are.
Per the released MOU:
quote:
United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develope a definite, mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permission needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America
So it may not be *solely* the US, but Iran is going to receive at least $300B if they get to a deal within 60 days.
re: Israel cannot stop bombing Lebanon
Posted by StormyMcMan on 6/15/26 at 6:51 am to joshnorris14
IMO Israel will cause the ceasefire to fail. I'm sure there will be lively debates on whether that was the plan all along or not, but it's my take that Trump just wants out
quote:
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich:
The agreement with Iran is bad for Israel and for the entire free world. Period.
The joint campaign had many achievements in weakening Iran, and they will not go to waste.
We will have to continue the campaign to topple the regime ourselves and in creative ways, and ensure that Iran will never have nuclear weapons.
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