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"They [Russians] see our lines - our interceptor lines, which we are using quite effectively - and they are trying to bypass them. They are doing it, by the way, with the help of Belarus - Belarusian territory - and technically with the assistance from Belarus as well."

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Ukraine's General Staff says Storm Shadow missiles hit Novoshakhtinsk oil products plant

STANISLAV POHORILOV — 25 December, 14:10

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has confirmed that Air Force units have carried out a successful strike with Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles on the Novoshakhtinsk oil products plant in Russia's Rostov Oblast on 25 December.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Details: The Ukrainian military said that multiple explosions have been recorded. The target has been hit and the scale of the damage is being confirmed.

The Novoshakhtinsk plant is one of the largest suppliers of petroleum products in southern Russia and is directly involved in supporting the armed forces of the Russian Federation. The facility supplies the Russian troops with diesel fuel and aviation kerosene.

Ukrainska Pravda
Russian attack on Ukraine leaves three oblasts almost completely without power

Andrii Muravskyi — 23 December, 10:49

Consumers in Ukraine's Rivne, Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi oblasts have been almost completely cut off from power as a result of a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine's power grid on the morning of 23 December.

Source: Ukraine's Ministry of Energy

Quote: "Over the course of the night and in the morning, Russia launched another large-scale attack on Ukraine's power grid, the ninth since the beginning of the year. As a result, consumers in Rivne, Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi oblasts have been almost completely without electricity as of this morning."

Details: There are also outages caused by the attacks in Vinnytsia, Chernihiv and Zhytomyr oblasts and in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts.

Emergency repair work will begin as soon as the security situation allows.

The ministry added that in Odesa Oblast, efforts are ongoing to deal with the aftermath of several consecutive large-scale strikes on the region's energy infrastructure, and a significant number of consumers remain without power. The energy companies are doing everything possible to bring damaged equipment back into operation as quickly as they can.

Ukrainska Pravda
quote:

But he can't cross borders with a classic invasion. It will be a hybrid war against Ukraine's supporters - a hybrid war that has already started. The grey area that exists for attacks that don't fully trigger Article 5 responses is the sweet spot for this campaign. The goal will be to stop the equipment supplied to Ukraine by 'anonymously' attacking European defense manufacturing and the logistics to Ukraine. Particularly in Poland but every European country supplying Ukraine will be hit.


I think this is the most likely near term scenario for the most part. However, I do think there is a realistic possibility that Putin will eventually test NATO Article 5 to try and determine if western Europe and the US will defend the Baltics.
Update: Caspian Sea front

Ukrainian military confirms hit on Russian ship in Caspian Sea

December 20, 2025, 03:00 AM

Ukraine’s defense forces successfully struck a Russian Project 22460 Okhotnik patrol ship with drones as it was operating near an oil and gas extraction platform in the Caspian Sea, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces confirmed on Dec. 20.

Several drones struck the vessel. The extent of the damage and the hull number are being clarified.

NV

Hybrid war provocations and threats are already affecting Ukraine's defense.

MilitaryNewsUA
@front_ukrainian
·
4h
Some partners are delaying the supply of air defense missiles to Ukraine. In particular, because intimidation from Russia and provocations in Europe have worked on the Europeans, – Zelenskyy.
US intelligence indicates Putin's war aims in Ukraine are unchanged
By Jonathan Landay, Erin Banco and John Irish

December 19, 20252:13 PM CSTUpdated 16 hours ago

Summary

US intelligence reports contradict Putin's denials of being threat to Europe
Assessments of Russia's intentions similar to those shared by British and other European security services
US officials plan to meet Russian representatives in Miami this weekend to continue talks

WASHINGTON/PARIS, Dec 19 (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to capture all of Ukraine and reclaim parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire, six sources familiar with U.S. intelligence said, even as negotiators seek an end to the war that would leave Russia with far less territory.
The reports present a starkly different picture from that painted by U.S. President Donald Trump and his Ukraine peace negotiators, who have said Putin wants to end the conflict. The most recent of the reports dates from late September, according to one of the sources.

The intelligence also contradicts the Russian leader’s denials that he is a threat to Europe.
The U.S. findings have been consistent since Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022. They largely align with the views of European leaders and spy agencies that he covets all of Ukraine and territories of former Soviet bloc states, including members of the NATO alliance, according to the sources.
"The intelligence has always been that Putin wants more," Mike Quigley, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, said in a Reuters interview. "The Europeans are convinced of it. The Poles are absolutely convinced of it. The Baltics think they're first.”

Reuters

MilitaryNewsUA?????
?@militarynewsua.bsky.social?
· 13m
Ukrainian kamikaze drone moments before hitting a Russian Rubin-class patrol boat.

Ukrainian drones strike Belbek airfield in Crimea, hitting equipment worth hundreds of millions – photos

VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — 18 December, 12:58

Long-range drones operated by Special Group Alpha of the Security Service of Ukraine struck Russian air defence assets at the Belbek military airfield in temporarily occupied Crimea on the night of 17-18 December.

Source: press service for the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU)

Details: The SSU said precision strikes by Ukrainian drones had hit the following assets:

two Nebo-SVU long-range radar detection systems, with the price of one estimated by the SSU at about US$60-100 million

a 92N6 radar station, which is a component of the S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft missile system, with an estimated domestic price of US$30 million and an export price of US$60 million

a Pantsir-S2 anti-aircraft missile system, with an estimated domestic price of US$12 million and an export price of US$19 million

a MiG-31 aircraft with a full combat load, with an estimated price of US$30-50 million depending on configuration and armament.

Ukrainska Pravda
potentially good news for Ukraine and the EU in general

?SPRAVDI - Stratcom Centre?
?@stratcomcentre.bsky.social?
· 8m
Despite their month's long propaganda barrage, and following last week's massive anti-government protests, Victor Orban's Russian-backed Fidesz party continues to be absolutely destroyed in the polls, sinkling further against opposition leader Péter Magyar’s TISZA.

quote:

First Combat Use of Underwater Kamikaze Drones: Russian Kilo class Submarine Disabled in Novorossiysk


Ukes just dropped another card. Great video.

SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre
@StratcomCentre
·
34m
Ukraine again makes military history.

For the first time ever, underwater kamikaze drones have been used in combat.

In a special operation carried out in the port of Novorossiysk, the Security Service of Ukraine disabled a Russian Navy Project 636.3 submarine (Varshavyanka class, NATO: Kilo). SBU-operated Sub Sea Baby underwater drones struck the vessel, causing critical damage and putting it out of action.

This submarine was equipped with four Kalibr cruise missile launchers—weapons Russia has repeatedly used to strike Ukrainian cities.

The operation was conducted jointly by the SBU’s 13th Main Directorate of Military Counterintelligence and the Ukrainian Navy.

A Varshavyanka-class submarine is valued at approximately $400 million. Under current sanctions, replacing it could cost Russia up to $500 million. Known as the “Black Hole” for its low acoustic signature, this class was designed to evade detection. It did not evade Ukraine.

The submarine had been redeployed to Novorossiysk after earlier Sea Baby surface-drone operations forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to abandon Sevastopol Bay in temporarily occupied Crimea.

Ukraine continues to redefine modern naval warfare.
75% of Ukrainians oppose "peace plan" that would include troop withdrawal from Donbas

Iryna Balachuk — 15 December, 09:48

Three-quarters of Ukrainians are opposed to a "peace plan" which, among other things, would include the withdrawal of troops from Donbas, limits on the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a lack of specific security guarantees.

Source: a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from 26 November to 13 December

Quote: "The Russian plan remains categorically unacceptable – 75% of Ukrainians consider it completely unacceptable (the same number was in September 2025). Only 17% of Ukrainians are ready for the Russian version of peace (the same number as before)."

Details: Meanwhile, 72% of Ukrainians (KIIS noted that mostly without enthusiasm) are ready to approve a plan proposed by Europe and Ukraine. Only 14% categorically reject it.



methodology, details of the plans presented to the respondents...

Ukrainska Pravda
unconfirmed by russian officials, but there are numerous reports...appears to be fake news...

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