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Started By
Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/24/24 at 9:44 am to Chad504boy
Posted on 9/24/24 at 9:44 am to Chad504boy
shite you are right - I read it backwards - damn you aixelsyD
0
Posted on 9/24/24 at 9:47 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
What's a drive to Chattanooga from Louisiana on Friday going to look like?
I'd reference Atlanta for your weather, it's close enough. That area could see some nasty weather over a few days.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 9:52 am to Turnblad85
quote:
But I cannot see moving anywhere near the coastline unless its in a home I can pull behind my truck or just have f-you money
Coast life isn't for everyone but it's awesome 99.9999% of the time. Sucks if you get the big one but that's part of the game.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 9:55 am to tiger91
Not really. That part of the Yucatan is mostly mangrove swamps and low jungle scrub. Great snook fishing.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 9:57 am to cgrand
quote:
that one shows a Yucatán landfall before it heads out
Yes, but not very strong at that point.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 9:59 am to Duke
quote:
It’s not going to be a well developed storm with strong winds Thats a bold statement with the upper levels Im looking at. Not that there arent some wrenches. TD in Pac will probably provide a little shear as it moves up. Maybe it doesnt organize as fast initially. But if you see that 2PVU map, youre concerned.
Hey Duke I was WRONG
This post was edited on 9/24/24 at 10:00 am
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:01 am to redneck
quote:
Coast life isn't for everyone but it's awesome 99.9999% of the time. Sucks if you get the big one but that's part of the game.
I agree....and when that big one comes, collect your insurance and build bigger and better.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:05 am to SippyCup
Looks like she has been named.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:05 am to SippyCup
She's officially Helene.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:06 am to redneck
quote:
Coast life isn't for everyone but it's awesome 99.9999% of the time. Sucks if you get the big one but that's part of the game.
and thats fine if you can hack it. But just keep rebuilding in the same spot between you and your insurance and don't involve FEMA. I can tell you that the nation is growing less and less sympathetic toward hurricanes blowing up people gulf coast homes.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:07 am to Oates Mustache
Looks like its staring to move. The Thursday 8pm placement looks to have moved a couple hundred miles farther north.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:08 am to Oates Mustache
Major at landfall
TS approaching Atlanta
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:09 am to cgrand
quote:
TS approaching Atlanta
Could very well be hurricane on approach and maybe recently downgraded to a TS. Will be an interesting aspect to watch how quickly in 12 hours it weakens.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:15 am to rds dc
10 AM CDT Advisory.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
From the NHC forecast discussion:
Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition,
the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result
in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
From the NHC forecast discussion:
Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition,
the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result
in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:15 am to cgrand
Good chunk of Georgia including Atlanta and Athens is in the moderate flash flood risk area
This post was edited on 9/24/24 at 10:17 am
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:18 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
She's officially Helene.
That's the first win we needed. It is not an "I" storm. That in itself is a blessing.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:20 am to Roll Tide Ravens
No way it stays only a 3 for that long in the gulf
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:24 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
She's officially Helene.
Saint Helene, b/c she about to frick up Tampa and Atlanta
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:25 am to Chad504boy
quote:
i sort of understand what you're trying to say BUT... is it not simple logic .... the stronger a storm... the further inland hurricane force winds will be seen?
I assume that's right.
I don't know how to artfully put it, but my guess would be that at a certain level a storm's peak strength is more fragile. The same way a storm quickly bombs out with RI, it probably quickly loses that top end strength interacting with land. Maybe Duke can tell us if there if there is any truth there.
In my hypothesis, the structure that underlies a TS/Cat 1 storm would hold together longer than the elements that take a Cat 1 storm to a Cat 5 storm. That might be stupid idk
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