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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:25 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21486 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:25 pm to
Looking at the 12z GFS vs. Euro and there are some pretty significant differences with a small upper level feature over FL.

The Euro has a small upper level low track westward out into the Gulf, which opens up an outflow channel for a developing system and puts the system under favorable flow.



The GFS keeps the ULL over FL, and this sets up an unfavorable flow pattern across the Gulf.



With that said, a lot would depend on when and where a system forms. Also, even on the more favorable Euro run, the ULL would work to block the system from getting any farther west. Ensembles do have a western cluster, but that seems like an unlikely scenario at this time.
Posted by bayou2
New Orleans, LA
Member since Feb 2007
3916 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:06 pm to


Gert is still out there
It hasn't moved much in days
That's the one I'm watching
Posted by BPTiger
Atlanta
Member since Oct 2011
6207 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

Gert is still out there
It hasn't moved much in days
That's the one I'm watching




RIP GERT
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 10:33 pm
Posted by bayou2
New Orleans, LA
Member since Feb 2007
3916 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:58 pm to


We'll see
Posted by BPTiger
Atlanta
Member since Oct 2011
6207 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:01 pm to
Lol are you in Bermuda? Are you watching out for ships east of Bermuda?
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 11:02 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:02 pm to
I hate to be the one to tell you this, but Gert died a couple lf days ago.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75019 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:03 pm to
quote:

Gert died a couple lf days ago

An embarrassment to the name.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131447 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:03 pm to
Gert will rise like the phoenix
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75019 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:04 pm to
He's taking the prudent and wise approach of never trusting a lady* named Gert.

*ETA: Woman....she's no lady.
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 11:05 pm
Posted by zsav77
Member since Oct 2011
6280 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:07 pm to
quote:

Gert will rise like the phoenix


From Arizona?
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43292 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 1:05 am to

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system
is possible over the weekend and early next week, and a tropical
depression could form while it moves slowly northward across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Posted by nicholastiger
Member since Jan 2004
55815 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 5:55 am to
Gotta love the ones that cross from pacific
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102538 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 6:49 am to
quote:

hate to be the one to tell you this, but Gert died a couple lf days ago.


What is dead may never die
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48752 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:20 am to
when is it going to rain again in Hammond?
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
130098 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:25 am to
Get a hurricane

Or

Never rain again


Those are your only choices in the Heat Dome Era. Long live the Heat Dome.
Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
11114 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:30 am to
quote:

ones that cross from pacific

Jose from Honduras, come on down!
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61722 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:33 am to
If this South American system does form, what is the timeline for it hitting the gulf coast?
Posted by tigersownall
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2011
16977 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:34 am to
I just want it to flash flood for like an hour.
Posted by redneck
Los Suenos, Costa Rica
Member since Dec 2003
54180 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:44 am to
quote:

If this South American system does form, what is the timeline for it hitting the gulf coast?


It's going to the west coast of Florida if it does form
Posted by PureBlood
The Motherland
Member since Oct 2021
5021 posts
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:46 am to
quote:

I just want it to flash flood for like an hour.




I want rain too, but a flash flood would just cause the first 2 inches of earth to seal up and drain off. We'd be much better off with a sustained steady rain/drizzle. Like 2-3 days of off and on rain.
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