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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:25 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:25 pm to rds dc
Looking at the 12z GFS vs. Euro and there are some pretty significant differences with a small upper level feature over FL.
The Euro has a small upper level low track westward out into the Gulf, which opens up an outflow channel for a developing system and puts the system under favorable flow.
The GFS keeps the ULL over FL, and this sets up an unfavorable flow pattern across the Gulf.
With that said, a lot would depend on when and where a system forms. Also, even on the more favorable Euro run, the ULL would work to block the system from getting any farther west. Ensembles do have a western cluster, but that seems like an unlikely scenario at this time.
The Euro has a small upper level low track westward out into the Gulf, which opens up an outflow channel for a developing system and puts the system under favorable flow.
The GFS keeps the ULL over FL, and this sets up an unfavorable flow pattern across the Gulf.
With that said, a lot would depend on when and where a system forms. Also, even on the more favorable Euro run, the ULL would work to block the system from getting any farther west. Ensembles do have a western cluster, but that seems like an unlikely scenario at this time.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:06 pm to rds dc
Gert is still out there
It hasn't moved much in days
That's the one I'm watching
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:32 pm to bayou2
quote:
Gert is still out there
It hasn't moved much in days
That's the one I'm watching
RIP GERT
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 10:33 pm
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:01 pm to bayou2
Lol are you in Bermuda? Are you watching out for ships east of Bermuda?
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:02 pm to bayou2
I hate to be the one to tell you this, but Gert died a couple lf days ago.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:03 pm to Duke
quote:
Gert died a couple lf days ago
An embarrassment to the name.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:03 pm to Duke
Gert will rise like the phoenix
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:04 pm to Cosmo
He's taking the prudent and wise approach of never trusting a lady* named Gert.
*ETA: Woman....she's no lady.
*ETA: Woman....she's no lady.
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 11:05 pm
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:07 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Gert will rise like the phoenix
From Arizona?
Posted on 8/24/23 at 1:05 am to zsav77
3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system
is possible over the weekend and early next week, and a tropical
depression could form while it moves slowly northward across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 5:55 am to bayou2
Gotta love the ones that cross from pacific
Posted on 8/24/23 at 6:49 am to Duke
quote:
hate to be the one to tell you this, but Gert died a couple lf days ago.
What is dead may never die
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:20 am to rds dc
when is it going to rain again in Hammond?
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:25 am to cgrand
Get a hurricane
Or
Never rain again
Those are your only choices in the Heat Dome Era. Long live the Heat Dome.
Or
Never rain again
Those are your only choices in the Heat Dome Era. Long live the Heat Dome.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:30 am to nicholastiger
quote:
ones that cross from pacific
Jose from Honduras, come on down!
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:33 am to RockChalkTiger
If this South American system does form, what is the timeline for it hitting the gulf coast?
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:34 am to rds dc
I just want it to flash flood for like an hour.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:44 am to notiger1997
quote:
If this South American system does form, what is the timeline for it hitting the gulf coast?
It's going to the west coast of Florida if it does form
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:46 am to tigersownall
quote:
I just want it to flash flood for like an hour.
I want rain too, but a flash flood would just cause the first 2 inches of earth to seal up and drain off. We'd be much better off with a sustained steady rain/drizzle. Like 2-3 days of off and on rain.
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