Duke

[img]https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL282020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL282020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif[/img]...

[quote]He said there will be a lot of wind shear as it approaches landfall in the USA. I would assume that means an asymmetrical storm. So even if it hits Louisiana again most of us should be on the west side of it.[/quote] Yes it'll be an east loaded storm as it gets torn up by the approaching s...

If it can tighten up quickly here it's got that hot water to work with down there. That shear should abate as the ridge builds in east too. [quote]Still not buying a Wednesday afternoon landfall. It would have to haul arse to do that. [/quote] Well funny thing, it's going to be hauling ...

[quote]The longer this thing dicks around in the WCab the farther east it goes I’m assuming [/quote] Pretty much. Still have a weaker west and stronger east thing but yeah, all things being equal later into the Gulf should put it more east by the end. ...

[quote]I'm not sure it matters much because, either way, this thing will be racing once it nears landfall.[/quote] Doesn't matter so much here since the turn is obvious. Just that it's weird how I'm now thinking I need to check the GEFS to see the more realistic spread. [quote]I'm more concer...

[quote]Another model battle setting up with the 12z GFS taking a strong TS or weak hurricane MS/AL and the Euro taking a slopfest into SE TX/SW LA.[/quote] Per tradition. I think the weirdest model tic of the season, for me, is I'm staning the new GFS ensembles over the Euro ensembles. The la...

To give some idea on strength, especially as a function of position, let's look at the 00z HMON and HWRF. [img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020102500/hwrf_mslp_wind_28L_28.png[/img] [img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020102500/hmon_mslp_wind_28...

Well since I'm nocternal now, guess it's as good a time as any to set the table with this one. So as of 00z tonight: [img]https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_201025_00.gif[/img] Got a shortwave over SE Alabama/Georgia/FL panhandle. This feature is going to be moving out of the way toni...

I want slack back just to bother Rummy. ...

[quote]Which one am I missing? [/quote] Beta I think. ...

[quote]Duke — wth? Any chance this is really “something”? [/quote] Pretty good it's something but level of something is a function of how far east in the gulf it is. It'll be full of dry air and shear if it's coming toward LA. A hook to Florida and it would be far enough ahead to be a hurricane ...

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_gefs_latest.png[/img] Alright before I go to sleep, the GFS ensembles has a similar mean to the Euro. One thing of note, the western solutions are mostly weak (but one) for obvious reasons by the end of the forecast. Farther east, I think, the be...

I'd say not to worry too much yet. Euro and it's ensembles tend to be west biased and with the big upper low approaching by the time it's be coming, it's hard to see how the system would be fully tropical. Certainly would struggle against shear and what are now coolish water in the northern Gulf. ...

[img]https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL95_2020102400_ECENS_large.png?1603525408[/img] Good morning to everyone but Europeans. I still see a lot of shear in its future but sigh...its got my attention now. ...

It's ground clutter. The radar beam gets bent toward the ground when there's a thermal inversion (warm air above cold air). For this reason you tend to see it at night. Basically the radar beam is picking up bugs or trees or other shite near the ground instead of going up into the air. Looking at...

They are doing it by appointment now and it's pretty quick in and out because of it. I'd do anything at the OMV you've been putting off while they're still doing this. ...

Duke, currently nocturnal because his idiot baby is also nocturnal, wakes up and checks the weather: [img]https://www.meme-arsenal.com/memes/6544f76339a4a02197cea87e612ba0ac.jpg[/img] Ok. So it's late October, this thing has to get a kick out or at least get it's head cut off on an approach. R...

Sounds like HIV. Go see a urologist....

Both Haas seats will be open for 2021....

Holy hell. Has like half the basin covered. Looks like a comma shaped baroclinic cyclone look. Just with a hurricane in the middle and a puny looking cold front. ...