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Posted on 8/22/23 at 10:04 am to Duke
Bless his heart, he really tried! Where is this thing in the Yucatan next week going?
Posted on 8/22/23 at 10:47 am to PorkSammich
quote:
. Every clump of storms over water getting named.
Do y’all realize there is an automatic threshold for tropical storms and names?
Not literally everything is a conspiracy.
Posted on 8/22/23 at 10:51 am to Motorboat
quote:
Louisiana has a force field preventing any rain whatsoever.
Until I saw every storm actively running away from LA, I didn't realize the Heat Dome was a literal dome over Louisiana
Posted on 8/22/23 at 10:57 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
Until I saw every storm actively running away from LA, I didn't realize the Heat Dome was a literal dome over Louisiana
Just need it to stick around for a few more weeks.
Posted on 8/22/23 at 10:58 am to TejasHorn
quote:
Do y’all realize there is an automatic threshold for tropical storms and names?
It’s amazing watching some of these folks with some of the stuff they come up with.
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:06 am to rds dc
Got the following e-mail at work this morning. What say the experts here? I'm not looking at you, Tarzana or Peej.
Looks like mother nature is trying to bust our defense and get some points on the board before the half!
Harold is enjoying some Tex/Mex today, so we’re already past him… but next week, we may get to see a REAL storm in the Gulf.
It’s still too far out to accurately predict but the conditions seem to be on track for either Idalia or Jose to spool up sometime next week.
As you can see from the graphics below, a low pressure system is likely to form up over the Mexican Peninsula on Sunday and move into the Gulf through the week – now, if the El Nino winds keep blowing and that high pressure heat we’ve been roasting under hangs on, that should push the storm east over to FloraBama on Thursday.
Now again… this is all a week away, so there is no need to panic or stock up on libations, batteries and toilet paper just yet! Have it on your mind (and your grocery list) but no need to rush out today. As we get closer to next week, we’ll have a better idea of what (if anything) to expect from this… and as always, I’ll keep you posted!!
I can't post the graphics but basically it looks like something cooking up in the space between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. Hopefully this is wishcasting that will go away in a few GFS runs.
Looks like mother nature is trying to bust our defense and get some points on the board before the half!
Harold is enjoying some Tex/Mex today, so we’re already past him… but next week, we may get to see a REAL storm in the Gulf.
It’s still too far out to accurately predict but the conditions seem to be on track for either Idalia or Jose to spool up sometime next week.
As you can see from the graphics below, a low pressure system is likely to form up over the Mexican Peninsula on Sunday and move into the Gulf through the week – now, if the El Nino winds keep blowing and that high pressure heat we’ve been roasting under hangs on, that should push the storm east over to FloraBama on Thursday.
Now again… this is all a week away, so there is no need to panic or stock up on libations, batteries and toilet paper just yet! Have it on your mind (and your grocery list) but no need to rush out today. As we get closer to next week, we’ll have a better idea of what (if anything) to expect from this… and as always, I’ll keep you posted!!
I can't post the graphics but basically it looks like something cooking up in the space between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. Hopefully this is wishcasting that will go away in a few GFS runs.
This post was edited on 8/22/23 at 11:07 am
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:08 am to TheFonz
Blue shed laughs at this storm
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:12 am to TejasHorn
quote:Are you saying there is no human making a decision to name a storm and it's "automatic" because some computer or algorithm assigns a name and publicizes it? I'm pretty sure that's not how it happens.
automatic threshold
You don't think government bureaucrats at the NWS are inclined to fudge naming storms just a tad so that they can bring some positive attention/publicity to their government agency? "See!! We're needed! Don't cut our budget!"
I know I've looked at some satellite photos over the years which don't even show a circulation or any hint of a "swirl" in the storm, just a straight line of clouds, and the NWS says it's a tropical storm.
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:15 am to LSURussian
quote:
Are you saying there is no human making a decision to name a storm and it's "automatic" because some computer or algorithm assigns a name and publicizes it? I'm pretty sure that's not how it happens.
Not what he is saying at all. He's saying that there is a windspeed threshold for named storms in response to this other dude saying every random storm is being named
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:26 am to Powerman
quote:You would be correct if wind speed alone is the criteria for a storm to be named. It's not.
He's saying that there is a windspeed threshold for named storms
Here is the criteria for naming a storm:
quote:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr).
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:28 am to TejasHorn
quote:
Not literally everything is a conspiracy.
Exactly what someone covering up a conspiracy would say.
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:28 am to LSURussian
For the Record A lot of insurance companies have wind/hail deductibles which do not require a storm to be named, few have Hurricane Deductibles, which require it to be a hurricane and not simply a named storm, and a few have named storms (Storm deductibles come in 3 types)
In fact, post IDA I would say in Louisiana a wind/hail deductible is the most common storm deductible making the named storm argument a moot point for many if not most of us
In fact, post IDA I would say in Louisiana a wind/hail deductible is the most common storm deductible making the named storm argument a moot point for many if not most of us
This post was edited on 8/22/23 at 11:30 am
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:32 am to LSURussian
quote:
You don't think government bureaucrats at the NWS are inclined to fudge naming storms just a tad so that they can bring some positive attention/publicity to their government agency? "See!! We're needed! Don't cut our budget!"
It’s like in baseball when the first or third base ump calls a check swing a strike. It’s in the eye of the beholder and yes I believe they are definitely naming more storms now than they once did. They definitely want the numbers up.
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:38 am to LSURussian
quote:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt
Well defined center is typically the sticking point when classifying.
All of these have met that mark.
Harold was going to pop off with another 18-24 hours over water.
ETA: ACE is all that matters for defining a busy season. I know, the media will make a big deal about named storms, but the media are full of morons.
This post was edited on 8/22/23 at 11:41 am
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:43 am to Duke
Yeah, it seems like Harold got its act together as it was making landfall. Glad it didn’t have more time over water.
This post was edited on 8/22/23 at 11:44 am
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:44 am to Duke
quote:
All of these have met that mark.
I put my foot down on Gert.
Posted on 8/22/23 at 11:48 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I put my foot down on Gert.
Meh.
It was good enough. And with these marginal cases, the lack of ACE makes it kinda moot in the big picture.
Posted on 8/22/23 at 12:06 pm to rt3
quote:
If you would like to watch the storm roll ashore today... I recommend watching NASASpaceflight's 24/7 live cameras at SpaceX's Starship R&D facility in Boca Chica on YouTube
SpaceX decided today... near a landfalling tropical storm... would be a great day to roll Super Heavy Booster 9 back out to the launch mount to prepare for the 2nd fully integrated Starship test flight
Posted on 8/22/23 at 12:18 pm to rds dc
I swear Franklin has been sitting in same spot for 3 days
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