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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

Posted on 8/22/23 at 12:19 pm to
Posted by PureBlood
The Motherland
Member since Oct 2021
5021 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

I swear Franklin has been sitting in same spot for 3 days




Got me a little nervous
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 1:12 pm to
It's probably going to erode in a few more weeks
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
12625 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 1:38 pm to
quote:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr).


The only difference is now you have high resolution satellite imagery all over the globe and buoys that send data periodically.

Before then you had to rely on ship reports and aircraft traveling in the area to pin point storms.

So no telling how many more storms could have met the requirements of a tropical storm or hurricane that did not impact land or shipping before the dawn of the satellite era of weather forecasting.

That is why I will always look at a "record breaking number of storms year" with a grain of salt.
This post was edited on 8/22/23 at 2:58 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 1:47 pm to
Franklin is either gonna have a new center reform in the convection or he is gonna be running well west of track.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

That is why I will always look at "record breaking number of storms year" with a grain of salt.




Everyone should.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
74995 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

The only difference is now you have high resolution satellite imagery all over the globe and bouys that send data periodically.

Before then you had to rely on ship reports and aircraft traveling in the area to pin point storms.

So no telling how many more storms could have met the requirements of a tropical storm or hurricand that did not impact land or shipping before the dawn of the satellite era of weather forecasting.

That's why I always argue that we need to have an asterisk beside total storm numbers in the satellite era, and it needs to be stressed and accounted for when comparisons are made.

I doubt it is as drastic a difference, but I believe it would he quite evident, as total tornado counts post-NEXRAD. The jump in confirmed tornadoes was huge when NEXRAD was implemented, an even bigger jump than what we have seen since Dual-pol was implemented.
Posted by HottyToddy7
Member since Sep 2010
15251 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

I swear Franklin has been sitting in same spot for 3 days


Yeah I have been waiting for it to turn north. It hasn't.

Or maybe it has slightly but it hasn't moved much.
This post was edited on 8/22/23 at 2:02 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
74995 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

Yeah I have been waiting for it to turn north. It hasn't.

Or maybe it has slightly but it hasn't moved much.


It is just practically stalled right now. If you look at the center point locations you can see that the northern turn has already happened.

This post was edited on 8/22/23 at 2:16 pm
Posted by purple18
Lafayette
Member since Aug 2009
1772 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 8:58 pm to
3 major global models put a storm in the gulf around August 29-31. I’d take a weak hurricane at this point
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131446 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 9:19 pm to
quote:

3 major global models put a storm in the gulf around August 29-31.


It will be gone tomorrow
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131446 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 9:22 pm to
quote:

That is why I will always look at a "record breaking number of storms year" with a grain of salt.


ACE is your friend
Posted by tketaco
Sunnyside, Houston
Member since Jan 2010
21737 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 10:21 pm to
This shite so gay. Bring a real storm damnit, to Louisiana so i can watch it on Live Stream.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
74995 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 10:25 pm to
quote:

This shite so gay. Bring a real storm damnit, to Louisiana so i can watch it on Live Stream.

Going for a downvote record, huh?
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 8/22/23 at 10:26 pm to
I want rain also but be careful what you wish for.
Posted by pwejr88
Red Stick
Member since Apr 2007
37863 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 6:55 am to
What is ACE again?

* I did a Google search and got the complicated definition.
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 6:58 am
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 7:00 am to
Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Basically, the longer the winds are strong, the higher the ACE. A weak TS will produce next to nothing. A long track CV storm that remains a major for days will produce a lot.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102534 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:19 am to



:that’s a penis:
Posted by farad
Member since Dec 2013
12479 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:31 am to
Posted by zsav77
Member since Oct 2011
6280 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

This shite so gay. Bring a real storm damnit, to Louisiana so i can watch it on Live Stream.


Maybe a storm can take your house out, no one else’s… I’d watch that on live stream.

a-hole.
Posted by TimeOutdoors
LA
Member since Sep 2014
13416 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:27 pm to
quote:

3 major global models put a storm in the gulf around August 29-31. I’d take a weak hurricane at this point


Did anyone really think we would not have a hurricane the first weekend of SEC football?
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