Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

How will my trip to Punta Gorda be?

YouTube meteorologist spins a major one up in the GOM in September. Gonna bust Texas.

Another wasted thread

Too much dry air. Nothing will happen.

Like I said, another wasted thread. Too much dry air. Now wait in about 2 -3 weeks.

quote:

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YouTube meteorologist spins a major one up in the GOM in September.

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A 3-4 week out prediction?

Thats bad even by this boards standards

Dr. Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
As we enter the peak weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, it will be interesting to see where genesis events are produced. Sometimes, El Nino's suppressive influence on the Caribbean leads to a northward shift in the favorable zone.

In a year when the Gulf of Mexico + west Atlantic warm pool is much warmer than normal, patterns such as this one in Week 2 ensemble forecasts can increase risks for genesis close to North America. Strong anticyclonic wave breaking at 200mb can lead to low to mid-level vorticity perturbations (such as from weak frontal boundaries or cutoff lows) being injected south of 30N, where warm water and deep moisture can lead to so-called "homegrown" TC genesis. Sometimes African easterly waves arrive from the east as an additional source of vorticity and moisture.

The plots of 200mb and 850mb zonal wind anomaly from the ECMWF ensemble below show an overlap of anticyclonic wave breaking over anomalous vorticity at the surface across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, which will be something to keep an eye on in late August.

Here’s my public announcement that I am not an expert.

Hold That Tiger10 mistakes my hurricane thread posts as expert opinions so I feel the need to clear the air before any subsequent posts in this or any future hurricane thread.

Carry on.

I know today one of our meterologist said an Easterly wave looks to be moving through the Gulf like 20-22 of August

Just bring some fricking rain!