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Started By
Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:38 pm to NorthEndZone
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:38 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
New HWRF shows 123 knots (140 mph) and 918 MB just before landfall. New HMON shows 116 knots (130 mph) just before landfall. Both stronger than previous run. ETA - HAFS-A and HAFS-B are 137 knots and 135 knots. Cat 4 or borderline Cat 4 for all four models.
I’m trying to tell myself GFS has been more accurate the entire way so far but that’s not good this close to impact.
1
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:38 pm to MrLSU
Is that showing 256 mph? Or is that in kilograms?
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:41 pm to auwaterfowler
quote:
Odds that she will still be a hurricane when she passes near Auburn, AL? We are supposed to drive down from NE AL tomorrow evening to spend the weekend with our kids. Starting to rethink this plan.
Auburn looks far enough south that you'll miss a lot of the heavy shite, but I'd expect rain for sure. The current path has it off to Auburn's east.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:42 pm to alphaandomega
Just donated to Here to Serve … I hope others do as well.
If yall are ever “somewhat” close to me I’d love to help serve.
If yall are ever “somewhat” close to me I’d love to help serve.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:43 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Is that showing 256 mph? Or is that in kilograms?
Ounces
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:43 pm to rds dc
HWRF showing Cat 4 intensity all the way up in the middle of Georgia? yikes
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:45 pm to DVinBR
Macon, we have a problem.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:46 pm to rds dc
Why does the official track have it going right over Tallahassee but the Weather Channel has it going to the east of that?
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:47 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Is that showing 256 mph? Or is that in kilograms?
Kilograms?
I think you meant kilometers/hr
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:48 pm to tide06
quote:
I’m trying to tell myself GFS has been more accurate
It started 5 MB too high and still ended up at 953 MB just before landfall.
So 948 MB would be a solid Cat 3. I think that is the low end everyone should hope for unfortunately.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:48 pm to tiger91
quote:
Just donated to Here to Serve … I hope others do as wel
Thank you
Donations are what make it possible.
quote:
If yall are ever “somewhat” close to me I’d love to help serve.
Where are you and Ill make a note to let you know? If you want to email me contact info to alphaandomegatd@gmail.com I can add it to our records.
If we end up doing back to back storms we may need some help.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:48 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Is that showing 256 mph? Or is that in kilograms?
Kilograms. 159 lbs/hr in American.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:49 pm to rds dc
12z Hurricane models seem to really like that Helene has closed off an inner core and avoided landfall on the NE Yucatan.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:49 pm to glassman
quote:
Macon, we have a problem.
If that prediction holds, Albany will get wrecked worse than when Alberto hit 30 years ago.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:50 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Is that showing 256 mph? Or is that in kilograms?
Pretty sure it's not kilograms.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:50 pm to Wally Sparks
There must be some new government projections that just came out.
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Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:51 pm to auwaterfowler
quote:
Odds that she will still be a hurricane when she passes near Auburn, AL? We are supposed to drive down from NE AL tomorrow evening to spend the weekend with our kids. Starting to rethink this plan.
I would think/hope not.
NWS shows peak winds for Auburn 24 sustained/38 gusting around 5AM Friday morning and precip chances dropping under 25% by 7AM.
But it will be very rainy starting midday and wind picking up throughout the day. Tropical storm warning is in effect as of this morning,
Unless the track really pushes west Auburn should stay on the west side.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:55 pm to rds dc
quote:
12z Hurricane models seem to really like that Helene has closed off an inner core and avoided landfall on the NE Yucatan.
Damn, that is not ideal
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:55 pm to rds dc
On another note the ghost of John has been revived
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:57 pm to MrLSU
Would think that’s simply a precaution given the crazy SLOSH storm surge modeling that is being calculated.
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