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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:58 am to RB10
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:58 am to RB10
There's a crowd that downplays the death numbers because of the size of general populations.
Some numbers to think about.
Italy averages 1690 deaths per day. Now add 712 or 42.5% to that number every day.
Spain averages 1127 deaths per day. Add 498 or 43% to that number.
Anyone that thinks that adding those numbers to a normal day in either of those countries is no big deal or insignificant in the grand scheme of things is an idiot.
Some numbers to think about.
Italy averages 1690 deaths per day. Now add 712 or 42.5% to that number every day.
Spain averages 1127 deaths per day. Add 498 or 43% to that number.
Anyone that thinks that adding those numbers to a normal day in either of those countries is no big deal or insignificant in the grand scheme of things is an idiot.
4
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:58 am to TigerstuckinMS
he was driven off by the wackjobs
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:03 am to VABuckeye
quote:
Some numbers to think about.
Italy averages 1690 deaths per day. Now add 712 or 42.5% to that number every day.
Spain averages 1127 deaths per day. Add 498 or 43% to that number.
Anyone that thinks that adding those numbers to a normal day in either of those countries is no big deal or insignificant in the grand scheme of things is an idiot.
I don't think you can just simply add the COVID related deaths to the average deaths per day.
When Italy's average age of death for COVID related deaths is in the 80s, you have to think there is some crossover/double counting as some of those folks would have died of other causes in the very near term, but I'm not a mathematician or actuary.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 8:04 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:05 am to Teddy Ruxpin
That's a fair point.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:06 am to Korkstand
quote:
Few things are more powerful than the us-vs-them mentality to rally the troops.
It IS us(U.S.) vs. them(China). Wake the frick up.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:10 am to Korkstand
quote:That was the view as to why we pushed for opening China’s borders in the first place.
So, if we have a desire to rid the world of yet another oppressive regime, do you think it best to support their people and give them a reason and the knowledge to come together and replace their government, or to alienate those people from the rest of the world?
That method is not working.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:10 am to VABuckeye
I guess I'll give a little update on that original patient but honestly there probably won't be much info in the future
we cant really wean them off the vent, theyre not getting worse but theyre not getting better. we are in limbo
I read an article yesterday where the average time a covid patient was on a vent (if intubated) was 11-20 days.
this particular patient didnt present to us until they had already tanked, I think.
what we are seeing and hearing from other institutions is early intubation (before you really need it) with sporadic paralysis just to sync you to the vent is having better outcomes than waiting for the patient to actually need intubation because at that point the damage has been done.
we cant really wean them off the vent, theyre not getting worse but theyre not getting better. we are in limbo
I read an article yesterday where the average time a covid patient was on a vent (if intubated) was 11-20 days.
this particular patient didnt present to us until they had already tanked, I think.
what we are seeing and hearing from other institutions is early intubation (before you really need it) with sporadic paralysis just to sync you to the vent is having better outcomes than waiting for the patient to actually need intubation because at that point the damage has been done.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 8:11 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:17 am to Tiguar
quote:
read an article yesterday where the average time a covid patient was on a vent (if intubated) was 11-20 days.
Wife is seeing the same thing. She says you'll be on vent for 2-3 weeks if it comes to that.
Said this week has been a shitshow and they aren't seeing much improvement of the patients in ICU. Quote from one of the docs yesterday “nothing we’ve done this week seems to be working”.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:20 am to Capt ST
its a viral pneumonia so it probably follows a similar path the flu does in that the earlier you start treatment, the better
for flu, you have to treat within 48h~ of symptom onset for the meds to really have an effect
this is one reason I don't really agree with waiting 3 days for a positive result before starting hydroxychloroquine for covid. it would be nice if we had an ubiquitous rapid diagnostic for this
for flu, you have to treat within 48h~ of symptom onset for the meds to really have an effect
this is one reason I don't really agree with waiting 3 days for a positive result before starting hydroxychloroquine for covid. it would be nice if we had an ubiquitous rapid diagnostic for this
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:21 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
When Italy's average age of death for COVID related deaths is in the 80s, you have to think there is some crossover/double counting as some of those folks would have died of other causes in the very near term, but I'm not a mathematician or actuary.
Louisiana is currently counting a kid that died from an undetected heart condition but also had asymptomatic COVID19. So he counts as a Corona death.
Ridiculous.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 9:37 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:28 am to fightin tigers
quote:
Um. Well. The cell service was interrupted when the tallest tower in the city fell down that day?
Great point, I forgot about that. Most folks never got the chance to call, not to mention not nearly as many people had cell phones in 2001 compared to 2020.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:29 am to QJenk
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:31 am to Tiguar
Trach and peg.
Yikes
Yikes
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:58 am to escatawpabuckeye
quote:
escatawpabuckeye
Please explain your Escatawpa/OSU connection because I'm fascinated.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:02 am to escatawpabuckeye
quote:
Trach and peg.
Yikes
Yep. A great combo to need.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:14 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
When Italy's average age of death for COVID related deaths is in the 80s, you have to think there is some crossover/double counting as some of those folks would have died of other causes in the very near term, but I'm not a mathematician or actuary.
I've heard on some science podcasts that people say that the delta between normal and current is actually the better way to attribute deaths to the virus.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:14 am to VABuckeye
quote:
averages
Do you know how averages work?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:15 am to MikeD
That's the data I want to see when this is over.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:16 am to Tiguar
quote:
his is one reason I don't really agree with waiting 3 days for a positive result before starting hydroxychloroquine for covid
They are starting the plaquenil as soon as they are deemed test worthy, not waiting on results. Floor and ICU. They did get approval to use LSU vet school to run tests.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:18 am to VABuckeye
I’d like a study on how only 20% of the Diamond Princess ever picked up the virus (which was present on the ship 17 days after everyone left).
If the total number of possible cases due to some inherent immunity is 20% of the population and not 100%, the models would shift. (Both good and bad: maximum impact much lower but much higher R0 for those susceptible).
AIDS was novel when it was introduced, however there are people who were immune to it due to leftover genetic mutations from a prior era.
If the total number of possible cases due to some inherent immunity is 20% of the population and not 100%, the models would shift. (Both good and bad: maximum impact much lower but much higher R0 for those susceptible).
AIDS was novel when it was introduced, however there are people who were immune to it due to leftover genetic mutations from a prior era.
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