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At what point do we stop focusing on the flattening curve idea
Posted on 3/16/20 at 7:57 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 7:57 am
If we flatten the curve enough, and there isn't a cure for 18 months, what point do we return to normal?
The idea with flattening the curve is to spread out the virus long enough so the hospitals can keep up. Do we want that to take 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, etc.? Some say a cure is 18 months away.
So far 69 people have died from the Coronavirus in the US, 11 people on the highest day. If the curve flattens at 40 people per day for a month, do we return to normal?
The idea with flattening the curve is to spread out the virus long enough so the hospitals can keep up. Do we want that to take 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, etc.? Some say a cure is 18 months away.
So far 69 people have died from the Coronavirus in the US, 11 people on the highest day. If the curve flattens at 40 people per day for a month, do we return to normal?
21
Posted on 3/16/20 at 7:58 am to Pintail
Italy
Posted on 3/16/20 at 7:59 am to Pintail
We’ll see it flatten soon, but it will be 1000 per day or more
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:00 am to Pintail
this is the macro issue and why i find the UK's strategy so interesting
flattening the curve with an incredibly contagious disease in a country this big seems like we're just going to have rolling crises
flattening the curve with an incredibly contagious disease in a country this big seems like we're just going to have rolling crises
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:00 am to Pintail
30 Pics of the Curve Flattening
(And You Won’t Believe Some of Them!)
(And You Won’t Believe Some of Them!)
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:01 am to Pintail
I don't think you are correct. It's to prevent a sharp peak that overwhelms health care services. By flattening the curve not as many people need care but importantly not as many people get the disease because of distancing. It is not the intent to spread the disease contraction out for many months. Virologists on the Board can explain this better than I can. And given the transmission means of the virus I don't even know if we can spread out the time of transmission the outbreak.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:01 am to hombreman9
quote:
We’ll see it flatten soon, but it will be 1000 per day or more
It needs to be more than that to build up herd immunity within a reasonable timeframe.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:01 am to Pintail
quote:
69
Nice
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:02 am to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
By flattening the curve not as many people need care but importantly not as many people get the disease because of distancing. It is not the intent to spread the disease contraction out for many months.
it is literally the intent
the "curve" remains the same, but we "flatten" it by having lower rates of cases over a longer period of time
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:04 am to Pintail
The logic of the last week, if carried out, will have us almost constantly in fear of viruses.
Watch what happens with flu season in the fall. I expect far more fear-mongering than normal.
Watch what happens with flu season in the fall. I expect far more fear-mongering than normal.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:05 am to Pintail
Ruining the economy to "flatten the curve" for a virus that is basically the flu is going to go down as one of the dumbest ideas in history.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:06 am to Crowknowsbest
quote:
It needs to be more than that to build up herd immunity within a reasonable timeframe.
I don't think they have shown that immunity results after Covid-19 recovery. In fact, there are some cases that suggest you can contract it a second time.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:07 am to Pintail
quote:
The idea with flattening the curve is to spread out the virus long enough so the hospitals can keep up.
You’re looking for a completely different answer beyond flattening the curve. There’s only one alternative to flattening the curve and that’s to let it spike and that’s what we’re trying to avoid. The people in charge are trying to get out ahead of all of this. It disturbs the daily routine shin in turns make people act the way they are now.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:07 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
the "curve" remains the same, but we "flatten" it by having lower rates of cases over a longer period of time
So you say the area under the curve is identical? By the way I don't believe you. It's almost a fatalistic view. If we can reduce the peak of the curve, we can reduce the number of cases. So again, I don't buy what you say.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:08 am to tom
quote:
Ruining the economy to "flatten the curve" for a virus that is basically the flu is going to go down as one of the dumbest ideas in history.
It's not "basically the flu" for a number of reasons
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:08 am to Obtuse1
quote:
I don't think they have shown that immunity results after Covid-19 recovery.
We’re just fricked in that case.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:08 am to tom
Nah. Bernie and biden have some pretty dumb ideas.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:09 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
flattening the curve with an incredibly contagious disease in a country this big seems like we're just going to have rolling crises
This is something that concerns me also.
How is this not going to be a yearly event? Are we still banking on developing herd immunity over time even with all the quarantines?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:10 am to Ingeniero
quote:
It's not "basically the flu" for a number of reasons
At what death rate can we say that it is?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 8:10 am to Pintail
quote:
flattening curve idea
If we aren’t 100% back to normal in 2 weeks maximum we will see Great Depression Style misery and panic.
Something like 75% of this country doesn’t have to savings to cover a week of bills much less a month of everything without a paycheck.
We’re headed for a terribly dark time if we don’t turn this around soon and social media ha idiots pretending this is no big deal
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 8:11 am
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