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Message
re: Texas Early Voting Report Day 9
Posted on 10/29/26 at 10:59 am to MyMardiGrasHat
Posted on 10/29/26 at 10:59 am to MyMardiGrasHat
quote:
Prediction markets have Talarico winning in a landslide
68% according to Polymarket
How'd they do for the Israeli election? Kalshi didn't get shite right.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 10:59 am to cajunangelle
Those numbers are only good for Ds if Rs are either abstaining or flipping in the Senate race. I think Abbott is pretty safe.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:01 am to MyMardiGrasHat
quote:
Maybe, maybe not. Please tell me how prediction markets work?
The prediction markets are relying on this
1. The party model overstates the Republican candidate’s actual support.
2. Unaffiliated voters break clearly Democratic.
3. A portion of Republican voters split their tickets against the Republican nominee.
4. Urban and suburban Democratic ballots are undercounted or delayed in the current reporting.
5. The remaining electorate is more Democratic than the ballots already cast.
Number 2 and 3 are probably most key, but 3 does not align with most polling with how Rs feel. They are thinking R votes are going to align with Bush and not Trump.
2 is probably all that is in play really.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:01 am to supatigah
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:03 am to cajunangelle
I'll buy you and Owlie one of these if Talarico wins.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:03 am to supatigah
quote:
Seems like most of the pendants were expecting for greater D enthusiasm dominating the R’s lack of enthusiasm
All of the negative polling and talk of a blue wave may have had the opposite effect and pushed more Republicans to get out and vote.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:04 am to supatigah
I would like to see a comparison with past early voting in a general election. Are Democrat numbers up or down vs. that. Given it seems that Democrats prefer early voting while Republians prefer Election day.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:05 am to Dawgsontop34
In 2024 prediction markets predicted successfully 91 of 94 elections where the candidate had +50% odds going into election day
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:07 am to MyMardiGrasHat
Prediction markets and polls did poorly in the primaries.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:07 am to DarthRebel
No Primary numbers are huge.
That’s where all the concern is…
That’s where all the concern is…
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:07 am to Django Unchained
quote:
What is the sentiment around the Republican Party?
High gas prices bro.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:08 am to MyMardiGrasHat
Trump like Husted's butt more than he likes Paxton's
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:08 am to cajunangelle
Nowhere in Texas is the Black community excited about Talarico, especially Black males. Jasmine Crockett has not endorsed him at all because she hates his guts. Straight Black males are just not going to vote in large numbers for a White gay man. This is what the liberal media absolutely refuses to acknowledge in any way or form publicly but it is heavily discussed behind closed doors.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:09 am to JimEverett
Republicans in the past have waited till Election Day because they were told to wait till Election Day so the Democrats don't know how many fake ballots to stuff the ballot box with
This time around, Trump and Republicans are urging Republicans to vote early
So the increase in Republican numbers early on is explained away by saying Trump and Republicans are telling their voters to vote early and not to wait for Election Day
This time around, Trump and Republicans are urging Republicans to vote early
So the increase in Republican numbers early on is explained away by saying Trump and Republicans are telling their voters to vote early and not to wait for Election Day
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:11 am to DarthRebel
My thought would be the Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande valley are moving back to Democrats - that would be a big reason for thinking Talarico will win
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:12 am to cajunangelle
Talarico has real problems with the independent/Dem leaning black and Hispanic voters
Seems like they probably won’t vote at all if they had to lean R because Talarico is too left for them
Being all in on voting on Election Day in the big cities is risky business for Dems when a voter lacking enthusiasm sees a line at the polling center.
Dems usually counteract the long lines later in the evening with buses and shuttles taking people to the polls during the day.
If they don’t have the money for the ground game, they don’t have the ability to get people voting in the morning and in the afternoon.
Early voting numbers being relatively close doesn’t look good for Dems counting on enthusiasm against DJT and Abbott and Paxton to cover their candidates weaknesses
Seems like they probably won’t vote at all if they had to lean R because Talarico is too left for them
Being all in on voting on Election Day in the big cities is risky business for Dems when a voter lacking enthusiasm sees a line at the polling center.
Dems usually counteract the long lines later in the evening with buses and shuttles taking people to the polls during the day.
If they don’t have the money for the ground game, they don’t have the ability to get people voting in the morning and in the afternoon.
Early voting numbers being relatively close doesn’t look good for Dems counting on enthusiasm against DJT and Abbott and Paxton to cover their candidates weaknesses
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:14 am to cajunangelle
quote:
weak Bkack turnout in Dallas
How will this help Paxton? It won't. For each bkack voter who doesn't show up at the polls in Dallas, there are two white women ready, willing and able to cast a ballot for Le Freak.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:14 am to supatigah
If these numbers are right than the turnout on election day would have to be very bad for the GOP to lose this.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:15 am to KCTBoneTiger
I didn’t have Iran making a catchy AI rap song with Lego characters as propaganda as something I’d ever see
Oh what a clown world we live in these days
Oh what a clown world we live in these days
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:16 am to MyMardiGrasHat
quote:
Prediction markets have Talarico winning in a landslide 68% according to Polymarket
You don’t have any idea how these markets work
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