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re: Texas Early Voting Report Day 9

Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:17 am to
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90721 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:17 am to
The sentiment seems to be the Republicans just want people voting, regardless of when they are going to the polls. That statewide Republican leadership was really concerned about Republican apathy. Perhaps that is still the case, we won’t really know until election day.

Posted by Timeoday
Easter Island
Member since Aug 2020
28191 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:21 am to
quote:

Trouble brewing for Paxton, I'm officially concerned. In a normal election, I think Paxton would have been fine, but the sentiment around the republican party right now is going to pull him down.


I am an Independent and I have not ever been more proud of POTUS Trump. The GOP is not represented by Thune and McConnell.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90721 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:22 am to
quote:

How will this help Paxton? It won't. For each bkack voter who doesn't show up at the polls in Dallas, there are two white women ready, willing and able to cast a ballot for Le Freak.


Talarico needs both the black vote and the LWW in Dallas, Houston, SA, Austin to balance the red rural vote
Posted by msutiger
Houston
Member since Jul 2008
72165 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:23 am to
quote:

Fox News Poll had Talarico up 7pts weeks ago and NOW you are concerned?

Interesting


I’m not a polling guy, I think they are at best taking an educated guess. What I was hoping to see was lower voter turnout among urban black and Hispanics voters. I haven’t seen that locally or in the numbers.

I’m also concerned about the non primary voters who seem to be making up a large share of this electorate. That is where my comment about Republican sentiment comes in. I don’t know that you can trust that group reliably voting Paxton even 50% of the time.
Posted by msutiger
Houston
Member since Jul 2008
72165 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:25 am to
quote:

I am an Independent and I have not ever been more proud of POTUS Trump. The GOP is not represented by Thune and McConnell.


I’m a Republican who is absolutely sick of the Republicans including Trump.

Thankfully for them the Dems decided to run a borderline demon heretic and that outweighs my frustrations with the GOP
Posted by BearCrocs
Member since Aug 2013
8946 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:25 am to
Rural voters have to show up and vote R

The urban areas are a lost cause. I live in an urban area about 30 miles outside of houston and I see Telerico signs left and right. It’s sad
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
105172 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:29 am to
quote:

Kalshi didn't get shite right.


Kalshi doesn’t predict anything. The percentages are just based on the number of contracts/positions purchased for that outcome and it’s driven by supply and demand. You aren’t opening a position against the house (Kalshi) your opening a position against someone with opposing views. Each contract is traded in 1-99 cents and the yes and no option always equals 1 dollar on each contract. It’s why the value of your position changes as new information comes out and you can sell your position at any point to guarantee a gain or mitigate losses if you feel your position is no longer likely, if there’s a buyer willing to take it.

All the percentage shows is that regular people are putting more money on Talarico winning.
Posted by Django Unchained
Member since Sep 2025
1326 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:31 am to
It’s interesting how the Republicans are the only ones ever accused of:
* Having bad candidates
* Blamed for economic conditions
* High gas prices etc…

All the while, their candidates support trannies, men in women’s sports and are deeply flawed in almost every regard.

And Barry Obama gave is 10% unemployment and said, “This is the new normal and those jobs aren’t coming back”

While his dipshlt successor couldn’t even string 2 meaningful words together… while giving us the highest inflation in 40 plus years.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
105172 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:32 am to
quote:

Nowhere in Texas is the Black community excited about Talarico, especially Black males. Jasmine Crockett has not endorsed him at all because she hates his guts. Straight Black males are just not going to vote in large numbers for a White gay man.


Nor are Hispanic men. The only way to flip Texas is to find a moderate Hispanic Democrat man to run
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
47296 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:34 am to
Ya, but bro. None of that is as bad as high gas prices bro.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90721 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:39 am to
quote:

I’m also concerned about the non primary voters who seem to be making up a large share of this electorate. That is where my comment about Republican sentiment comes in. I don’t know that you can trust that group reliably voting Paxton even 50% of the time.


R early numbers are a little below 2022 and 2024

D early numbers are a little above 2022 and 2024

which is about right, especially with what owlie said about Texas Rep leadership asking Rs to vote early

the issue is Talarico needs Rs to be down and Ds to be more than slightly up to be the first Dem to win statewide in 30yrs and the numbers so far dont support that
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90721 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:42 am to
quote:


Ya, but bro. None of that is as bad as high gas prices bro.


are you serious? or being sarcastic?

you know gas prices are typically inelastic right? high or low, people are still going to drive

prices aren't policy, what he is talking about is policies
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90721 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:43 am to
quote:

And Barry Obama gave is 10% unemployment and said, “This is the new normal and those jobs aren’t coming back”


unemployment is 4.2% right now
Posted by Timeoday
Easter Island
Member since Aug 2020
28191 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:45 am to
In other words you will sit out or would vote dem if it were a Beto or Kamala type candidate.

Gotcha!
Posted by TigerIron
Member since Feb 2021
4202 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:45 am to
quote:

In 2024 prediction markets predicted successfully 91 of 94 elections where the candidate had +50% odds going into election day


The relevant question today would be how successful they were with their predictions 6 days before the election, right?
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
14236 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:45 am to
Those numbers are not voting results.

Those numbers reflect voting history (prev. Voted in primary or not).

Posted by mwade91383
Washington DC
Member since Mar 2010
8315 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:46 am to
What are we missing about prediction markets?
Posted by MyMardiGrasHat
Member since Sep 2026
420 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:47 am to
quote:

And Barry Obama gave is 10% unemployment and said,


The Great Recession happened under Bush. Obama inherited it

This is kinda like “interest rates” under Biden were at all time highs bc his sucessor pulled $7 trillion out of his
arse on he way out the door.
Posted by mwade91383
Washington DC
Member since Mar 2010
8315 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:47 am to
Correct but I think he’s implying most are unlikely to change (drop below 50) so I think you’re both effectively saying the same thing….
Posted by mtb010
San Antonio
Member since Sep 2009
6713 posts
Posted on 10/29/26 at 11:48 am to
quote:

We don’t have much patience with racism, anti-Semitism or really any of the tisms or ists


Tell me about it, I got banned for like 3 months because i used the term "Jew money"
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