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re: What's the end game for hurricane tracking/projections?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:36 am to 62Tigerfan
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:36 am to 62Tigerfan
Hurricane Forecasting Accuracy
Well, that is incorrect. Forecasting has gotten better, but you can still see the error at even 48 hours is not approaching 20 miles very quickly. A chart at 7 days out would be considerably worse.
quote:
Despite all the technology, weather prediction today, including hurricane forecasting, is no better than it was in the 1970s. Sometimes they’re spot on, other times they are as off as can be. Same then, same now.
Well, that is incorrect. Forecasting has gotten better, but you can still see the error at even 48 hours is not approaching 20 miles very quickly. A chart at 7 days out would be considerably worse.
0
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:41 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
The dawn of quantum computing will make them infinitely more accurate.
Still only as good as the algorithms and data given.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:42 am to TomSpanks
vote for biden. he said he will end hurricanes
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:48 am to PrivatePublic
quote:
Still only as good as the algorithms and data given.
So I guess that's the question, if we had the a computer advanced enough to crunch all the data, would we be able to program that computer and input data well enough to spit out a correct prediction? Are the computers the limiting factor now or are we just not knowledgeable enough about everything to know what to input?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:20 am to TomSpanks
A lot of negative Nancys in this thread.
Before sputnik, what do you think the TD posters thought about the possibility of launching something into space that could wirelessly send images back that can be looped to show a short clip of what is going on in another part of the planet. Not to mention it being distributed across personal wireless devices instantaneously and multiple times a day.
I'd say we are well on our way to figuring out a way to be more accurate.
Before sputnik, what do you think the TD posters thought about the possibility of launching something into space that could wirelessly send images back that can be looped to show a short clip of what is going on in another part of the planet. Not to mention it being distributed across personal wireless devices instantaneously and multiple times a day.
I'd say we are well on our way to figuring out a way to be more accurate.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:21 am to TomSpanks
A computer can only crunch known data and make predictions off of unknown data. Weather especially hurricanes potentially has 1000s of variables, I really don't know.
No one wants to admit it, but hurricane projections are already pretty damn accurate. Outside of Sally they've been very accurate for the most part. Sally wouldn't have been nearly as bad if it didn't stall and go so slow.
I'm sure they will get more accurate, its not realistic to expect us to get worse...but I just don't think its ever realistic to have under say a 50-100 mile error.
No one wants to admit it, but hurricane projections are already pretty damn accurate. Outside of Sally they've been very accurate for the most part. Sally wouldn't have been nearly as bad if it didn't stall and go so slow.
I'm sure they will get more accurate, its not realistic to expect us to get worse...but I just don't think its ever realistic to have under say a 50-100 mile error.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:22 am to baldona
As we learn more, get more data, and technology improves, yes...they will get more accurate.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:27 am to Chucktown_Badger
Predictions of cold fronts a week out are rarely accurate... I would think this would be an easier prediction and that hasn't been nailed down yet.
This topic reminds me of a professor I had. He said, "If we just knew how everything was at the beginning. Then we could accurately predict the weather."
This topic reminds me of a professor I had. He said, "If we just knew how everything was at the beginning. Then we could accurately predict the weather."
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:37 am to keks tadpole
quote:
Hard to believe that 25 years ago we were marking an X on a newsprint hurricane tracking chart every four hours.
More importantly, what the frick did we think we were accomplishing?
People do weird stupid shite.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:38 am to TomSpanks
A storm that large is gonna go where it pleases
It’s like a dragon or a T-Rex.
You can try and control it or guess what it’s gonna do but in the end, it’s gonna go frick shite up wherever it wants because that’s just what it’s made to do
It’s like a dragon or a T-Rex.
You can try and control it or guess what it’s gonna do but in the end, it’s gonna go frick shite up wherever it wants because that’s just what it’s made to do
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:03 am to TomSpanks
People love to bitch and moan.
It’s a modern fricking marvel that we know where storms from Africa are coming weeks in advance and that can give us some sort of prediction on the 2nd most un-predictable thing that man has ever known- Mother Nature.
Imagine living on the gulf 100 years ago- it’s September and all of a sudden one day there’s about 6 million love bugs around your house and you have the realization that there’s a monster coming from the ocean to rip the living shite out of everything you love and own.
Also the most un-predictable thing man has ever know are women.
It’s a modern fricking marvel that we know where storms from Africa are coming weeks in advance and that can give us some sort of prediction on the 2nd most un-predictable thing that man has ever known- Mother Nature.
Imagine living on the gulf 100 years ago- it’s September and all of a sudden one day there’s about 6 million love bugs around your house and you have the realization that there’s a monster coming from the ocean to rip the living shite out of everything you love and own.
Also the most un-predictable thing man has ever know are women.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:11 am to GCTigahs
quote:
Which begs the question, how can “scientists” expect us to believe temp changes and sea level predictions 25-50yrs out if they can’t predict it 5 days from now?
It's much easier to predict global trends over decades, then it is to predict specific weather temps for specific cities, even 5 days out.
But that's trends. We know what causes rising temps, and we know that if temps rise, glaciers will melt, which call seas to rise. But, saying in 50 years, the height of Lake P will rise 2.63 feet, is garbage as well.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:13 am to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
More importantly, what the frick did we think we were accomplishing?
It was something to do before iphones, the internet, and 800 channels of tv.
Also let me say that my kids struggle with plotting in math class. None of us struggled with that.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:14 am to TomSpanks
We will likely get better at short term forecasting. Long-term? I think there will always be too many variables.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:18 am to TomSpanks
no but I am shocked by how accurate the projections are now...if the predictions improve as much as they have over last 20-30 yrs who knows
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:19 am to TomSpanks
Nope..... reason= Mother Nature.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:20 am to TomSpanks
No one fully understands cyclonic forces, and perhaps we may never will. Perhaps one day we will have quantum computing powerful enough to be more accurate, or very accurate at tracking hurricanes and, even more chaotically, tornadoes.
But by all means, let's blame the local weather guys for keeping us tied to the TVs for ratings.
But by all means, let's blame the local weather guys for keeping us tied to the TVs for ratings.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:24 am to TomSpanks
quote:
So I guess that's the question, if we had the a computer advanced enough to crunch all the data, would we be able to program that computer and input data well enough to spit out a correct prediction? Are the computers the limiting factor now or are we just not knowledgeable enough about everything to know what to input?
I think the biggest problem is the input data. “Garbage in, garbage out” applies here. Theres a finite amount of local monitoring infrastructure (weather stations, buoys, etc.) available, and all of the computing power in the world won’t help if you don’t have enough inputs.
Satellite monitoring certainly helps. But remember, weather is three-dimensional.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:29 am to TomSpanks
We'll be going full sharpie from here on out.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:38 am to Fun Bunch
quote:Maybe, but the lack of accuracy may have more to do with data input than it has to do with processing.
The dawn of quantum computing will make them infinitely more accurate.
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