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What's the end game for hurricane tracking/projections?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:43 am
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:43 am
Will we ever see hurricane projections that are spot on from say a week out without landfall fluctuating more than 20 miles or so and nailing the intensity the whole time? Will there ever be that much understanding of the things that affect a hurricane? Will we ever have enough data points/computing power etc to do that or are we just trying to get incrementally better at this?
27
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:44 am to TomSpanks
No. You won’t.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:44 am to TomSpanks
The dawn of quantum computing will make them infinitely more accurate.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:45 am to TomSpanks
never, the local weather station producers and weatherman will never allow it, gotta get those clicks and live watches
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:47 am to TomSpanks
no
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:48 am to Magnus
Ahh yes, the all powerful local weather producers will prevent it. Lololol
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:49 am to TomSpanks
Hard to believe that 25 years ago we were marking an X on a newsprint hurricane tracking chart every four hours.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:49 am to TomSpanks
with so many variables, no.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:49 am to keks tadpole
And they appeared to be almost as accurate
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:50 am to TomSpanks
Yes, we know how hurricanes are formed and what affects them. Now it is just a matter of getting adequate data and having the computers with the power to model it.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:53 am to TomSpanks
Despite all the technology, weather prediction today, including hurricane forecasting, is no better than it was in the 1970s. Sometimes they’re spot on, other times they are as off as can be. Same then, same now.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 8:59 am to 62Tigerfan
Whether or not we're better at predicting these things now vs 50 years ago or not (I honestly don't know if that's the case), I have to think we at least have a better idea of what can influence these storms, and certainly have more/better data points but maybe we just don't have the computing power to crunch all the data that changes constantly.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:00 am to TomSpanks
I don't think projections will ever be able to consistently nail a landfall within 20 miles a week out. Aside from getting lucky, that's damn near impossible to do for every storm
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:01 am to TomSpanks
No. It's simply not possible, nor will it ever be.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:03 am to TomSpanks
quote:
Will we ever see hurricane projections that are spot on from say a week out
Projections by definition are an estimation, so no.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:05 am to MikeBRLA
Right, but the projection can certainly get better and more accurate.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:06 am to TomSpanks
quote:
Will we ever see hurricane projections that are spot on
Nope. Read up on chaos theory/butterfly effect to understand the whys and wherefores.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:07 am to TomSpanks
No.
Which is why climate models 5, 10,20, 100 years out are bullshite.
Which is why climate models 5, 10,20, 100 years out are bullshite.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:10 am to TomSpanks
Which begs the question, how can “scientists” expect us to believe temp changes and sea level predictions 25-50yrs out if they can’t predict it 5 days from now?
Edit:udtiger beat me to it.
Edit:udtiger beat me to it.
This post was edited on 10/7/20 at 9:11 am
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:10 am to TomSpanks
I'm certainly no weather expert but from just reading the threads here and watching the news it seems like every time a storm deviates from it's projection they can say why after the fact (dry air, warm water, etc). At some point I'd think we'd have enough data/experience/computing power to predict these things at a much higher rate. Or do we just have that little understanding of how all these work together?
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