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elprez00
Houston Astros Fan
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2011
22923 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

My rain gauge on my patio has 1/2 inch in the last 10 days

My grass must’ve missed the memo


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00
BigBrod81
LSU Fan
Houma
Member since Sep 2010
9155 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

I don't think it correlates like that. In S.E. La the summer hasn't been that bad until this past week. We've had several cooler than normal evenings when I've actually gone out on the back patio for drinks. Anectdotal, of course.


Anyone who has been offshore in the Gulf of Mexico over the last few weeks, knows it has been brutally hot out there over that time period. The seas have slick calm, no wind, no clouds with heat indexes over 110°+. There's been a high pressure system parked over the gulf that seems to be moving eastward towards the Atlantic over the next few days.

The water temperatures off the coast of Florida where this system is headed as it moves south are really hot for waters just off the coast especially for early July. The temperatures range from upper 80s to low 90s in that area. The water temperature as far west as Eugene Island area is currently 85°.

Water Temperature Table of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico

Coastal waters of the western Gulf of Mexico are currently in the mid 80s.

Water Temperature Table of the Western Gulf of Mexico

Image: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d1.png


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is
forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Thereafter, upper-level winds support some development of this
system while it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast
through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


birdieman
Alabama Fan
NOLA
Member since Dec 2012
1637 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Awesome. Moved to MS gulf coast last week.... cant wait.


East Coast Band
Alabama Fan
Member since Nov 2010
38642 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

Moved to MS gulf coast last week

Where, Prezactly?


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30
LouisianaLonghorn
Texas Fan
Austin, Texas
Member since Jan 2006
9911 posts
 Online 

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
I’m curious to see where this thing goes once it gets into the gulf. I guess they will know more by next weekend.


OldSouth
LSU Fan
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
9596 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential


Cosmo
Houston Astros Fan
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
93856 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential


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44
lsuman25
LSU Fan
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
28945 posts
 Online 

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential


tilco
Auburn Fan
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
9042 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
So I guess I’m not fricking going fishing next weekend. Oh well at least we’ll get some rain and bust up this heat wave.


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30
lsuman25
LSU Fan
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
28945 posts
 Online 

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
I don't have access to the every 6 hours or 12 whatever it is of the Euro but the Euro must strengthen it pretty good because next frame up in North Louisiana and 992 pressure still.


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NorthEndZone
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2008
5313 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Aw Hell...This would put NOLA and much of SE LA in the heavy rainfall bands Still 5-6 days out though so things can and hopefully will change.

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019070712/ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_6.png


Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019070712/ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_7.png


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
27872 posts
 Online 

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
There's a trough that will move across the northern US through the week. The new run of the euro shows that trough stronger than before as it moves toward Minnesota/lakes.

It pumps the ridge to the south and allows our system to be trapped under it and get pushed west.


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01
Lion4Life
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2012
275 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Supposed to be headed to grand isle Friday...


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00
LSUJuice
LSU Fan
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
16367 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Meanwhile, in gfsland, it has this thing in the coastal bend of Florida at that time...

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019070712/gfs_z850_vort_seus_21.png




And then central Georgia...

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019070712/gfs_z850_vort_seus_25.png
This post was edited on 7/7 at 1:53 pm


NorthEndZone
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2008
5313 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Yeah. Based on last season the Euro and GFS tend to converge on the track about 3 to 4 days out. By Tuesday evening we should have a much better idea where this thing will be going.


TigerstuckinMS
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2005
20775 posts
 Online 

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
I wish my investment portfolio would shoot up as fast as the chances this thing develops into a headache for someone next week


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50
rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
14552 posts
 Online 

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
12z Euro has landfall near Avery Island in the low 990s
12z UK is similar strength and into the Panhandle
12z GFS and Canadian models are weak and off to the NE

So your model range at 12z is from Louisiana to SC


Roll Tide Ravens
Alabama Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
8465 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
I will take the 12z Euro or 12z GFS. Keep it away from my beach trip on the Alabama Gulf Coast.


lsuman25
LSU Fan
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
28945 posts
 Online 

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Great consensus


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lsugolfredman
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2005
1351 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Image: https://i.ibb.co/LRWN4zd/712-A4-F4-C-CA10-4552-9-FEF-E3-A999192-D00.png


Slow moving rainmaker could pose problems if the Euro solution played out
This post was edited on 7/7 at 2:37 pm


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