Covingtontiger77

Good write up on X

X link


JUST IN — $NBIS NEW rough ARR-based valuation and Nebius 12 month PRICE TARGET:

CALCULATION:

Confirmed on Q3 call, next month Nebius will achieve Guidance of 1B ARR without counting the Microsoft deal. They have on the Q3 call today announced a new 3B deal with META and issued new guidance for 7-9B ARR by end of 2026. Arkady has a history of being conservative with guidance and under promising and overdelivering. Nevertheless I will assume the midpoint case of 8B. Note that this rate of growth 1B-8B ARR YoY from end of 2025 to end of 2026 would be 700% and at this scale would be unprecedented in the history of the stock market. A rate of growth this high tends to command the highest end multiple that hyperscalers/clouds have commanded such as 20X+. Per Grok with this level of growth “the implied ARR multiple for valuation would likely fall in the 18x–28x range.” But I will be more conservative and use a much lower 12X multiple here.

At 12X 8B ARR we get $96 Billion valuation.

Now to consider cash and subsidiaries:

Cash=1.68B + 1B raised via new shares + 2.75B raised conv bonds = $5.4B cash

Subsidiaries TripleTen and Toloka 1B, Avride 4B (Motional, Wayve peer comps) + 28% ClickHouse stake currently 1.7B= $6.7B (note that I believe this $6.7B to be very conservative due to new estimates of ClickHouse value as they have grown rapidly since this valuation and are now moving toward IPO.

Total value of all cash and subsidiaries: $12.1B

This is a capex intensive business so to be more conservative here, I will simply assign ZERO VALUE for all the cash and all the subsidiaries and treat all $12.1B to be future capex.

Total value = $96B with roughly 250M shares outstanding (which includes the shares sold at $92.50 from the recent equity raise) or roughly $215 per share.

To account for Future share dilution I will add roughly 22,700,000 more shares (by assuming full dilution from the recent convertible bond sale) and add another additional 25,000,000 optional shares announced on today’s Q3 call. Note that this latest 25M is optional and management indicated will only be issued as needed with respect for dilution and maximizing shareholder value. But to be more conservative here I will add all 25M.

So 96B with roughly 297,700,00 shares outstanding equates to a stock price of roughly $322 per share.

CONCLUSION:

Nebius TARGET PRICE (12 months): $322 per share, a roughly 212% upside from the current stock price of around $103 per share

But the lump some number to settle is still there.

I say it will settle for around $40m.

What about the 25m share offering?

Effect on share price?

Share dilution ?

The illegal browns really are trash fricks

Bringing their shithole tendencies to their illegal home.

Our grandparents didn’t fight for Islam to take over the West.

I mean it’s literally a statue of a white woman proclaiming herself the symbol of liberty.

How can that be?

Doesn’t seem to be very inclusive nor an accurate representation of the current demographic. Almost seems symbolic of white supremacy. This can not stand.

When do they demand it be taken down?

Need Steven Miller to chirp in MAGA’s ear that there is no upside for importing more Muslims.

He also needs to start working on revoking those on visas that are here


Additionally, the SCOTUS case on birthright citizenship is paramount to our cause (14th amendment).


What you are seeing is suicide from within. The Left and white guilted afflicted are doing this to us.

You should not have enclaves like
Dearborn, MI
Little Mogadishu, MN
Large pockets of Sharia loving Muslims in Texas


And you certainly can’t have a Muslim mayor in NYC.

quote:

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Fact - Phil is his father Fact- he is in the know on Saban deal Fact- he was born in Newark but didn't want to be NewarkTiger and give it away Fact: Shaq is saving Reebok with Allen Iverson who played professionally ...in Philly Fact: Shaq number 33- 3 x3 =9 ...Phillytiger9

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Will be sold and bright back to Seattle.

Re-branded the Sonics.

Frick doing away with the filibuster. You can’t put that back in the box once you let it out.


Keep this behemoth that is the Federal gov’t shutdown.

I need to see real examples of people starving in the streets before it’s re-opened. SNAP is being abused and is full of fraud.


KEEP IT SHUT DOWN