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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/25/24 at 1:56 pm to
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Bayou Chico
Member since Feb 2009
57299 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

its a beautiful day here (Pcola), 85 degrees, puffy white clouds dotting blue skies, plenty of sunshine



You must not be in north Pensacola. The bottom fell out here about an hour ago for about 15-20 minutes. But yea now its sunshining again and humid as shite.

quote:

imagine something like this happening 100 years or so ago, where in the span of <30 hours you would go from a tranquil fall day to 130 mph winds and 18 foot storm surges with absolutely no warning



Its wild to look at the map and see just how close this behemoth is to us, yet we SHOULD be relatively unscathed.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14607 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 1:57 pm to
That 1896 hurricane tracked ~100 miles east of the current center of cone. That's the closest (besides Michael and Idalia) Cat 3+ in the database. It tracked from Cedar Key to Lake City to Savannah. A storm in 1852 matches the projected Helene track better but was only 90 kts landfall and was also moving NE instead of the N track projected for Helene.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 1:58 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
76010 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 1:58 pm to
I thought the 1896 Cedar Keys Hurricane could give some clues as to surge potential for Western Florida, but it seems to have been a small, compact storm. Though, it did have a very fast forward speed (~35mph). That led to considerable damage inland.
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
40762 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:03 pm to
dumb question: with the storm moving fast, is the surge worse in terms of damage?

i don't ever plan to see 15' of surge in person. I have no idea what that looks like or how fast the water comes
Posted by LSUneaux
Metairie and MAGA AF
Member since Mar 2014
5044 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:10 pm to
Tallahassee is in serious trouble. It doesn’t have a comparable system to this one since the 1850s. It’s only 30-40 miles inland.
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
84810 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:12 pm to
quote:

Tallahassee is in serious trouble. It doesn’t have a comparable system to this one since the 1850s. It’s only 30-40 miles inland.


The Curse of DJ U. is real.
Posted by purple18
Lafayette
Member since Aug 2009
1816 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:12 pm to
quote:

dumb question: with the storm moving fast, is the surge worse in terms of damage?


Im not sure about surge but i know the faster the motion it does increase wind speed and the storm will remain stronger further inland
Posted by HogX
Madison, WI
Member since Dec 2012
5665 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

dumb question: with the storm moving fast, is the surge worse in terms of damage?


My understanding is that slower storm generally means a larger surge.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 2:15 pm
Posted by PJinAtl
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2007
14695 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

imagine something like this happening 100 years or so ago, where in the span of <30 hours you would go from a tranquil fall day to 130 mph winds and 18 foot storm surges with absolutely no warning

This pretty much happened with the 1900 Galveston hurricane, and the 1875/1886 Indianola hurricanes.

Erik Larson has a great book, Issac's Storm, about the 1900 Galveston storm.
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
45503 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:14 pm to
You know Mike Norvell is hoping it cancels the rest of the season.
Posted by Adajax
Member since Nov 2015
8794 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:19 pm to
We flew out of Atlanta the day after Gordon. We're returning the day after Helene (I hope). Hurricane bookends to our vacation.
Posted by Mr. Hangover
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2003
34932 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:20 pm to
quote:

was sitting outside just now eating lunch when a thought struck me its a beautiful day here (Pcola), 85 degrees, puffy white clouds dotting blue skies, plenty of sunshine indications are its pretty similar weather along the Big Bend area right now imagine something like this happening 100 years or so ago, where in the span of <30 hours you would go from a tranquil fall day to 130 mph winds and 18 foot storm surges with absolutely no warning


I had this same thought for Francine


Crazy to think about. I’d imagine that back in the day they had subtle signs that eventually led to them figuring out bad shite was on the way
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14607 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:24 pm to
The animals probably started reacting to it first, and most people had some kind of animals - chickens, pigs, horses, cows, etc. I guess that's all they had until the skies changed.
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
23565 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:25 pm to
I know this is the hurricane thread but we're getting some gnarly gusts on the Northshore right now
Posted by Turnblad85
Member since Sep 2022
5956 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

subtle signs that eventually led to them figuring out bad shite was on the way



By the same token, I wonder how many times they shite themselves over a peculiar thunderstorm thinking another hurricane was coming?

Kinda like in the 1800s when kids were dying left and right from yellow fever. How many mothers' heart stopped if a kid started randomly coughing?
Posted by CarolinaGamecock99
Member since Apr 2015
24892 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:26 pm to

Ian had some insane surge
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 2:27 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
76010 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:27 pm to
quote:

I know this is the hurricane thread but we're getting some gnarly gusts on the Northshore right now

There's some broad rotation in that storm, too.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
103799 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:28 pm to



Looks like a slot of dry air is keeping her check?
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59570 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:33 pm to
That is terrifying
Posted by Antib551
Houma, LA
Member since Dec 2018
1421 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

Crazy to think about. I’d imagine that back in the day they had subtle signs that eventually led to them figuring out bad shite was on the way
There are plenty signs. But back then the mode of transportation was too slow to outrun. It's pretty easy to tell the difference in rain and the low level circulation in not just the core, but the bands also. Granted, this only gives you hours to prepare instead of days, but back then there wasn't much prep to actually do. Secure the animals, maybe board the windows. Not like they had toys and furniture and all kinds of shite laying around like we do now. Most homes were pretty well stocked with generic, easy to cook things like meat, beans, rice. Life was a heck of a lot simpler.

Steamships in the gulf also gave a little heads up of approaching storms.
Another good book from this time frame is Last Days of Last Island about the 1856 storm that is regarded as Lousianas first great storm, in recorded history of course...

Of course there was still incredible deaths. Things got exponentially better in the early 1900s with technology and mechanical advances.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 2:37 pm
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