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re: Dr. Anthony Fauci now says COVID-19 mortality rate closer to "very bad flu"
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:06 am to Centinel
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:06 am to Centinel
quote:
A covid cfr of ~1% is still several times deadlier than the flu
And still not worth wrecking our economy over.
And it is not anywhere close to 1% anyway.
0
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:06 am to Pilot Tiger
quote:
The bad shite hasnt even started yet
There it is. The fear-mongerung, sensational emoting we’ve come to expect. It’s always...”wait till
Next week” or “the bad shite hasn’t even started yet”.
Or maybe we’re past the bad shite! Maybe the “horrific” conditions your wife are seeing is the bad shite. But don’t let that stop you from being dramatic and foreboding as possible.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:07 am to cave canem
quote:
Why dont we wait till the daily death rate stops climbing before declaring victory, a lot of folks in Italy were spouting the same thing a few weeks ago and it did not turn out so well for them.
FYI thus far there is nothing to indicate we will be any different.
Their fatality rate is much higher though
But I tend to agree that maybe we shouldn't be spiking the football while the daily deaths are still climbing
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:07 am to Jake88
quote:
Some deaths would happen from COVID, but if a hospital isn't overwhelmed, some can be prevented.
So, this is just a threshold issue then.
Couldn't more lives be saved from Covid a true quarantine where no one is allowed to leave the house for anything?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:08 am to Scruffy
I think we can go 3-4 more weeks, then we have to start opening back up, and continuing to apply social distancing measures. If not, the economy is going to take much longer to recover.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:08 am to Pilot Tiger
quote:
we're in the first inning of this
If it’s actually as contagious as they say, we aren’t in the first inning. This was widespread in a major Chinese city in November.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:10 am to Scruffy
quote:It's not possible to make sound predictions with a new virus and the country where it originated providing unreliable data.
The public trust in the ability of those to make sound predictions is unraveling and unraveling fast.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:12 am to Scruffy
Scruffy you have converted me over the past 2 weeks. I think the miss on testing from the CDC will go down as one of the biggest blunders on a total dollars cost in US history. South Korea gave us the playbook that didn't include shutting down their economy, and we totally screwed it up.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:12 am to Jake88
quote:Then they shouldn’t be making definitive predictions that have life altering and widespread effects.
It's not possible to make sound predictions with a new virus and the country where it originated providing unreliable data.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:13 am to DollaChoppa
quote:
Can we just not downplay this so we can all take it seriously, get this under control, and go about our lives sooner?
Downplaying it?
Well let’s see. We’ve killed our economy. We’ve shut down schools, airlines, cruises, international travel, the borders, much of our commerce, bars, gyms, restaurants, dental offices (except for emergencies), all sports, entertainment venues, just about all social events of any sort, barber shops, beauty salons, banks (lobbies) most retailers, and most people are sheltering and working from home,
If they still have a job.
How much more seriously would you like us to take it?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:14 am to CivilTiger83
quote:
I think the miss on testing from the CDC will go down as one of the biggest blunders on a total dollars cost in US history.
The strategy of using tests only on your likeliest and sickest patients has seriously hindered the US and other countries’ ability to make good risk/reward decisions. That is true no matter how this COVID thing unfolds from here.
It’s a complete failure to understand statistics and sampling.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:15 am to Jake88
]
My point is what would have happen if we did nothing like many here advocate. What happened now could have been much worse.
Call it what you want. My point is the major steps taken are helping.
quote:
That's not what it says. Again, as others have said, the problem is that this spreads more widely than than the flu
My point is what would have happen if we did nothing like many here advocate. What happened now could have been much worse.
Call it what you want. My point is the major steps taken are helping.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:15 am to Scruffy
quote:And if they did the opposite and this thing took off to tens of millions infected in 2 months they would have been lambasted as well. They were damned either way.
Then they shouldn’t be making definitive predictions that have life altering and widespread effects.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 8:16 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:16 am to Pilot Tiger
quote:
we're in the first inning of this and people are acting like it's time to bring the closer in
Well...can the closer go 9?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:16 am to Number 9 Fan
You can’t quantify that though. You have no tangible proof either way.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:19 am to Number 9 Fan
quote:I'm agreeing with you. They've helped but others are hurting with the fallout. Again, I dont have a strong opinion on this either way because I don't know enough. None of us do, really.
My point is the major steps taken are helping
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:19 am to Jake88
If it’s not as bad, why is the whole world pretty much shut down? It seems like someone would have figured it out by now. Spain and Italy are both getting destroyed. Even with all the testing South Korea did, their death rate is running over 1%.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:19 am to Number 9 Fan
quote:
What happened now could have been much worse.
How much worse? It’s impossible to know because data collection was so amateur.
quote:
My point is the major steps taken are helping.
They are helping with the spread at an enormous societal cost.
This is a balancing act, and the US made a very poor attempt to understand the costs associated with both sides before making massive decisions.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:19 am to Powerman
The OG H1N1 still with the win. To dominate like it did back to back 1918-1919 is impressive. In the same division as “polio with no vaccine”, “measles with no vaccine” and “Type1 diabetes with no insulin” and yet the Spanish flu is still the modern GOAT (Fans of the Black Plague will try to make a claim here, but it’s well known that pre-medical pandemics don’t count in the stats).
COVID will end winning the 2020 overall disease impact season (with room to spare), but it benefits from having weak competition as the only respiratory contagious disease currently in the conference, now that vaccines and treatment leave the others struggling to claim victories. Other big hitters (obesity, diabetes, cancer) simply can’t compete due to their non-contagious nature.
COVID will end winning the 2020 overall disease impact season (with room to spare), but it benefits from having weak competition as the only respiratory contagious disease currently in the conference, now that vaccines and treatment leave the others struggling to claim victories. Other big hitters (obesity, diabetes, cancer) simply can’t compete due to their non-contagious nature.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:20 am to More beer please
quote:
You can’t quantify that though. You have no tangible proof either way.
I agree you can’t.
All you can do is take examples of other places and try and analyze what went right or what went wrong. It’s Monday morning QBing in stetoids.
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