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re: Dr. Anthony Fauci now says COVID-19 mortality rate closer to "very bad flu"
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:41 am to Jake88
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:41 am to Jake88
quote:
And if they did the opposite and this thing took off to tens of millions infected in 2 months they would have been lambasted as well. They were damned either way.
Just out of curiosity, how do you know that it didn't?
The only way to know for sure is testing. This may have been the case and the vast majority of those millions may have had CV, but been asymptomatic and never known.
1
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:42 am to DollaChoppa
That’s the thing, all these hospitals are prepped and killing elective procedures and sending people home in pain because of “precautions” for corona, still no overrun facilities here in Chicago, THIS was the week you fear mongers said everything was going to hit the fan and death would be everywhere.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:42 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Link? Where did he say that?
Reading is HARD. From the second link in the OP.
quote:
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
I can hear you mouth breathing from here. "What if there are not asymptomatic multiples." Read the fricking link. Fauci and other leading epidemiologists, including the one that wrote the Imperial College report that sent the world into a panic, are finding more evidence of a legion of asymptomatic people that are not being tested.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:42 am to ashy larry
Or maybe just maybe it’s not as bad as it was hyped to be.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:42 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Seriously? You actually believe this? Tell us, how do you get to that figure? How are you accounting for all the cases that aren't "confirmed" because there are no or very minor symptoms? You can't compute the CFR by just using the serious cases in the denominator.
At the end of the day, the actual CFR is going to be well south of .5%.
LINK
In your mind why not just make the CFR zero? You clearly think everyone has it and this whole thing was over yesterday.
If you have a source for what you think the CFR should be I am all ears.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:42 am to RollTide1987
Now there is a complete surprise. This is no way affects the full on media and Democratic assault and will not temper their unbridled enthusiasm for every stock market dip and American death.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:43 am to LSU1018
quote:
Even with all the testing South Korea did, their death rate is running over 1%.
They stopped the spread in a matter of weeks and didn't shut down the country. They tested at a higher rate than anyone during their crisis and did detailed case tracking (like Singapore).
They had the benefit of getting trained with the outbreaks of the past 20 years from nearby China - that is the one thing we didn't really have that they did.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:43 am to Shepherd88
The other key here is that based on limited testing kits (I realize this isn't still as big a deal as it was a week ago), we are mostly testing people with symptoms, or those who we think are positive.
86% of people we test are negative, and we are only testing those who we think have the virus
86% of people we test are negative, and we are only testing those who we think have the virus
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:43 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Seriously? You actually believe this? Tell us, how do you get to that figure? How are you accounting for all the cases that aren't "confirmed" because there are no or very minor symptoms? You can't compute the CFR by just using the serious cases in the denominator.
At the end of the day, the actual CFR is going to be well south of .5%.
Diamond Princess and SK have the CFR around that amount and their testing is top of the world thus far.
Diamond Princess had everyone tested and SK tested a frickload of asymptomatic people in order to contain it.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:44 am to ashy larry
quote:
Maybe it's b/c people here have become more aware by practicing proper hygiene and distancing earlier than Italy. Maybe it's we acted sooner and closed down things sooner than they did for fear of becoming like them. and maybe it's b/c we really haven't seen the worst which is true until the day that these numbers peak.
Exactly, it’s not as if there has been business as usual, Millions of people in the US have made tremendous social changes. How much did all of this help? You can’t measure it, but logic says it had to help.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:44 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
Reading is HARD. From the second link in the OP.
quote:
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases,
quote:
Reading is HARD
Thats quite an assumption, chief.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 8:47 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:44 am to chitiger91
quote:
THIS was the week you fear mongers said everything was going to hit the fan and death would be everywhere.
Well, uh, it's actually next week now.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:44 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
It would be. What kind of retard comment is this?
People are saying shite like
quote:to water down any effect the measures may have had. If this gets worse than they think, that same group will shift to "It wasn't worth it, bc there was nothing that could be done, but we wrecked our economy anyway"
The argument is about to shift how this would be so much worse if we did nothing.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:49 am to jimmy the leg
quote:
Just out of curiosity, how do you know that it didn't?
The only way to know for sure is testing. This may have been the case and the vast majority of those millions may have had CV, but been asymptomatic and never known.
This would be our dream scenario
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:50 am to Number 9 Fan
quote:It's pretty disappointing to read the other side of this. We've taken all of these steps to reduce the spread of the virus, and it actually seems to be working. Certain folks dismiss that and come to the conclusion that the virus wasn't a big deal in the first place.
Exactly, it’s not as if there has been business as usual, Millions of people in the US have made tremendous social changes. How much did all of this help? You can’t measure it, but logic says it had to help.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:53 am to fitz
Or most didn’t buy into the media hype from the beginning
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:54 am to chitiger91
quote:
THIS was the week you fear mongers said everything was going to hit the fan and death would be everywhere.
You shoulda bought last week IMO
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:56 am to RollTide1987
quote:
The skinny from his report in the New England Journal of Medicine:
That article was written in February!
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:56 am to More beer please
quote:Any particular reason you didn't buy into the media hype from the beginning?
Or most didn’t buy into the media hype from the beginning
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:58 am to RollTide1987
excuse me while i wrap my head in tinfoil and take to twitter
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