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re: Dr. Anthony Fauci now says COVID-19 mortality rate closer to "very bad flu"
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:11 am to MikeD
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:11 am to MikeD
quote:
This editorial was published on February 28, 2020, at NEJM.org.
All of you idiots arguing over something written a month ago! Nobody clearly read the article!
Yep. Damn few cases outside of China at that point. In that context this statement in the paper makes more sense.
quote:
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.
I don't think anyone who seriously looks at the numbers we've seen in March believes this anymore.
1
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:11 am to SabiDojo
quote:
It’s baffling to me how many people are okay with the overreaction.
It's baffling to me how people can already assume this is an "overreaction". We don't fricking know despite the misleading headline of this thread.
quote:
“Well, better safe than sorry.” What we did was not responsible policy.
There are a lot of bad decisions that have been made over the past few months. I'll take a little 'better safe than sorry' over "oh shite, why didn't we do something about this sooner?" This isn't a partisan thing. It isn't like the US is the only place taken measures.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:17 am to ashy larry
Going to be a lot of "hindsight 20/20" posts moving forward.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:22 am to cave canem
quote:quote:A bad case of the flu is the all time world champion pandemic.
So After closing down everything, we are battling a bad case of the flu?
In terms of numbers, probably. In terms of percentages, the Black death in the 1300s killed 1/3 of Europe in 10 years, over 20 million people. The world population dropped from an estimated 443 million in 1340 to an estimated 360 million in 1400.
Estimates for the Spanish Flu range from 17 and 100 million with most estimates in the 20 million range. World population at the time was between 1.8 and 2 billion
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:34 am to tom
quote:
Same song and dance from the chicken littles. It could not be clearer to reasonable people that this whole thing was a massive overreaction to what is basically the flu. But of course you clowns are happy wrecking the economy as long as you don't have to admit you were wrong.
Absolutely. There will be nimrods on here when the summer comes who will be clamoring for the shutdown to continue despite numbers dropping through the floor. "It's too early to go back to business as usual! Just wait for the winter flu season to arrive. Numbers will jump back up! We're not out of the woods yet!"
I just know that come Nov 4th we will never hear mention of Covid again.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:37 am to SoFla Tideroller
quote:
I just know that come Nov 4th we will never hear mention of Covid again.
How do the situations in Iran, Italy, and Spain tie into this election year hoax theory you seem to be advancing?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:39 am to SoFla Tideroller
quote:
I just know that come Nov 4th we will never hear mention of Covid again.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:42 am to RollTide1987
quote:
US flu TFR (CDC stat) = 0.14%
Gonna need to see a source for this. The stat I saw on the CDC website said the flu fatality rate was 2 per 100,000, which is FAR less than 0.14%
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:44 am to RollTide1987
quote:
COVID-19 TFR = 2x regular flu
So twice as bad with no vaccine in sight?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:44 am to The Spleen
Never said it was a hoax. The media-driven panic is what is an embarrassment. I have no doubt people with compromised immunity systems, diabetics, extreme elderly are at risk. To completely shutdown society because of that is unwarranted. The numbers don’t support an action like this when we aren’t orders of magnitude worse than the other “pandemics” we’ve made it through the last decade or so. If we had this hysteria at the beginning of the H1N1 and the like the same posters would have been predicting the sky was going to fall then, too. Didn’t happen then. Not going to happen now.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:45 am to RollTide1987
quote:
- US case fatality rate now = 1.4% (deaths/confirmed cases)
What so many people ignore (or intentionally disregarding it to create their own little fake news) is that the 1.4% fatality rate applies when patients get treatment.
However, it seems that 5-8% more will recover only if they're put on a respirator for multiple days.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:47 am to RollTide1987
Fauci is only saying that so a deranged Trump doesn't fire him for exposing Trump's idiocy every day.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:04 am to Tigris
quote:
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.
I don't think anyone who seriously looks at the numbers we've seen in March believes this anymore.
Actually, Dr. Birx said that yesterday.
She also said that this will be able to be controlled through test and trace.
Dr. Fauci said we will have therapies that mitigate covid in a month or month and a half. But we need to keep using social distancing for a few more weeks to give us time to get there.
The UK model that came out yesterday from the world's top viral modeler said 1/2 the people in the UK already had or have it and estimated up to 20k uk deaths before herd immunity.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 11:07 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:31 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
Fauci is only saying that so a deranged Trump doesn't fire him for exposing Trump's idiocy every day.
Here is Fauci saying that the mortality rate is likely about 10 times that of a typical flu
LINK
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:34 am to chitiger91
quote:
That’s the thing, all these hospitals are prepped and killing elective procedures and sending people home in pain because of “precautions” for corona, still no overrun facilities here in Chicago, THIS was the week you fear mongers said everything was going to hit the fan and death would be everywhere.
Hell we have like 14 confirmed cases in savannah(I think half are in ICU), but the city, schools are shutdown and I'm having to push patients back a month for Corona.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:39 am to Pandy Fackler
quote:This is mainly because all ED traffic for other medical issues are down.
However and this is a big "however". I work at a prominent GNO acute care hospital and as of Tuesday, suspected and confirmed covid diagnosis out number all other diagnosis combined.
We are seeing half the numbers daily than we normally do.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 12:05 pm to RollTide1987
Sometimes the stupidity on here makes my head hurt. Need to isolate from these forums for a bit.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 12:25 pm to Pilot Tiger
quote:
we're in the first inning of this and people are acting like it's time to bring the closer in
Mid week game. Do not care.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 12:26 pm to RollTide1987
where the frick have I heard that before?
oh, yeah...me and a bunch of others here for the last fricking month.
oh, yeah...me and a bunch of others here for the last fricking month.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 12:27 pm to udtiger
Fauci claims the mortality rate is likely 10 times that of the average flu
I wouldn't listen to too many morons around here that don't have the faintest clue of what they're talking about
I wouldn't listen to too many morons around here that don't have the faintest clue of what they're talking about
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