re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley

NHC track got Baton Rouge in the gun.

It’s not really warm water. It’s just warm water relative to early June.

Never seen a spaghetti model like the one you posted for this storm.

I think it’s got some big outliers

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NHC track got Baton Rouge in the gun.

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A relatively good sign for LA since the worst of the rain/wind is likely to be far removed to the E of the center.

GFS 24 hour rainfall through 6am Monday.

Cristobal downgraded to a Tropical Depression

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 041444
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 91.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and
along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Cristobal.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 91.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6
km/h), and this motion should continue through midday. A turn
toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a
subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of extreme
northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico today and tonight. The
center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico
Friday or Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...
Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Really not much change in thinking since yesterday morning. Spend the next couple of days watching the system spin over the Yucatan.

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Same. We should see the system start to slowly lift north by tomorrow sometime but it is currently under heavy shear with the deepest convection offset to the NE of the system.



This is the result of an upper level trough over the Gulf with the heaviest convection displaced from the surface low towards the area of best upper divergence.



Placement of features that will guide the future track haven't changed much over the last couple of days.

Below image is from 2 days ago for Saturday night:



vs.

06z Euro for Saturday night



We have seen the modeled track bounce around a bit but mostly just the result of noise in the model as the position and timing of the two troughs fluctuates from one run to the next.

Given the upper level setup over the Gulf and the current disorganization of the system, it is likely that the most significant weather will be well east of the track, pretty much in line with climo for June CAG systems.

The main threat will be rain and even that doesn't look too bad with the 06z Euro EPS showing widespread 3 - 4" totals with some areas picking up 5"+

THat loop it is taking is throwing a monkey wrench into the models. A bit of chaos theory is involved in forecasting how it spins out of that loop.

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A relatively good sign for LA since the worst of the rain/wind is likely to be far removed to the E of the center.

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This may be one of those weird situations where the further towards Texas the center goes, the WORSE it is for SELA.

GFS and ICON with one hell of a turn west as it approaches the coast. GFS actually brings it on a tour through the south before spitting back out into the northern gulf and across over into texas as a mess.

Didn't the 6z EURO hint at this hard west jog as well?

2-4 inches of rain predicted for most parts of south Louisiana. We are getting lucky on this one.