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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 8/27/24 at 10:14 pm to
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105276 posts
Posted on 8/27/24 at 10:14 pm to
This whole aspect of the war is surreal to me.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105276 posts
Posted on 8/27/24 at 10:16 pm to
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
12293 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 1:15 am to
Damn they are very defensive in Russia right now. I don’t know who the protagonist was, but he seemed pretty concerned about the newly developed Ukranian drone doing so much damage
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105276 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 1:39 am to
quote:

Ukraine’s ex-Danish Lockheed Martin F-16s have scored their first aerial victories. According to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, the supersonic F-16s shot down Russian cruise missiles during the Russian air raids targeting Ukrainian cities on Monday.



LINK
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 2:31 am to
quote:

Your thesis would make more sense if it were about bleeding Russia dry via US taxpayer dollars and Ukrainian lives. I think the west still actually does WANT Ukraine to win, but I don't think they expect it or truly care if they do at this point. Russia is neutered and the NATO state got expanded, weapons manufacturers will have orders coming in for the foreseeable future even if this ends tomorrow. And if Ukraine were to win they have to make sure Russia lands on pillows and not pavement when they crash.... they aren't actually worried about Putin, but rather what comes after. In a fractured Russia, the militant Islamist portion could absolutely grab power and therefore nukes.


Yes, kinda...

Zelensky likes to say "The West wants Ukraine to win, just not at the expense of Russia losing."

And he is right... the West wants Russia to lose, but in a way where they can handle how it falls apart... and most importantly account for the world's largest (on paper, anyway) nuclear arsenal. And the concern is exactly that one of the Islamist populations who are radicalized gets ahold of some, or they end up in Iran (a short boat ride down the Caspian Sea)...

The things I've read suggest "choking off" Moscow financially so that it can't afford to support the different provinces (in reality, it wasn't doing much of that, other than Police forces, before this started), and then the West steps in when those provinces have no choice but to take care of themselves and makes some deals to help them in exchange for securing the nukes. A repeat of how the Warsaw Pact disintegrated in an orderly fashion. And bear in mind they also have an eye of Russia's demographic disaster, which is no small part of the reason why Putin has expansionist designs (to both get more defensible geography for a shrinking military in the near-future but also to "reclaim" "stray" "Russians" and their babies to bolster the Western/European Russian population).

Whoever replaces Putin will probably be just as awful, but what will he inherit?

The thought of Russia, especially after this not working out the way they thought it would, going into the Baltic states and trying to snatch part of Poland up to the Wista River, and Romania makes no sense... but the reasoning apparently is "they feel they have no choice, it's an existential thing and they can be invaded and destroyed if they don't... so they will try." Which again just seems insane... but the answer to that is "you're thinking like a Westerner, who sees no reason to invade and conquer countries just to do it. If you think like a Russian... your history is shaped by centuries of different forces invading you... and the rest of that history is you invading surrounding countries. You have better memories of the second part than the first."
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 6:21 am to
ISW Update Aug 27th

quote:

Key Takeaways:

Russian forces have made significant tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction amid reports that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from select areas southeast of Pokrovsk.

Russia's most combat-capable troops are currently sustaining Russian advances towards Pokrovsk, and Russia's offensive operations are emblematic of the wider Russian theory of victory in Ukraine, premised on seemingly indefinite grinding tactical advances. Russia's continuous and complete prioritization of the Pokrovsk direction will likely impact Russia's overall combat capabilities in Ukraine in the aftermath of any Pokrovsk scenario, especially as the Kremlin tries to balance gains in Pokrovsk with defending against the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast was in part an effort to preempt a Russian offensive operation into Sumy or Chernihiv oblasts and noted that the incursion is an aspect of Ukraine's wider efforts to achieve a just and lasting diplomatic solution to the war based on the principles of international law and the inviolability of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted to advance into two areas of Belgorod Oblast on August 27 amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast.

Russian officials attempted to use International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi's visit to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) to falsely portray Ukraine as threatening a radiological incident, likely to undermine Western support for Ukraine by stoking unfounded fears about Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized India's commitment to ending the war in Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin following Modi's recent visit to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has reportedly heightened willingness among Russian citizens to sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).




Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 6:52 am to
quote:

Are you saying the eastern front is about to collapse?



That's one of many possibilities. Its hard to say exactly what the next couple of weeks/months looks like because hundreds of small decisions along the front and a few larger macro decisions combined together will determine how this ultimately goes. I would say that it definitely feels like the extremely small gains we were seeing Russia making will become larger, but that's not really a prediction because its already happening in some areas.

Another possibility is that either by the west letting Ukraine fully off the leash or Ukraine taking itself off and then asking forgiveness later they actually turn the tide of the conflict. In general though Ukraine is using the resources available, they've struck inside Russia and taken Russian soil, and the west has already been loosening the reigns over the past several months..... I'm not sure that this sudden "OH MAN, UKRAINE IS REALLY TAKING THE GLOVES OFF NOW" narrative/cope from the hardcore Ukraine supporters is as significant as they think it is or will make that much of a difference in the end.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 6:56 am to
quote:

Russia's continuous and complete prioritization of the Pokrovsk direction will likely impact Russia's overall combat capabilities in Ukraine in the aftermath of any Pokrovsk scenario, especially as the Kremlin tries to balance gains in Pokrovsk with defending against the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.


While this is obviously true, this portion highlights one of my issues with the ISW updates.... they don't call balls and strikes. Or they just omit the full story like they did here. Losing Pokrovsk has catastrophic potential for Ukraine largely because of its role in the supply chain. It doesn't matter if your own combat capabilities are diminished if you diminish your opponent's more than your own.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 7:05 am to
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 28 August 2024

On 17 August 2024, Russian media reported that President Vladimir Putin had promoted the daughter of his cousin (often referred to as his niece) Anna Tsivileva to be State Secretary of the Ministry of Defence. Tsivileva was previously appointed a Deputy Defence Minister, a role which she retains, in June 2024. As State Secretary Tsivileva is elevated above ordinary Deputy Defence Minister (of whom there are an additional seven) and is responsible for the MOD's relationship with the legislature and other government bodies.

Before 2023, Tsivileva had no known background or relationship to defence matters. She trained as a psychiatrist before making money in a number of medical supply companies. In 2023 she became Chairperson of the State Foundation for Support for Participants in the "Defenders of the Fatherland" Special Military Operation, which organised voluntary donations in support of the War in Ukraine. Tsivileva is married to Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev.

• Tsivileva's original appointment in June drew muted criticism from the Russian press for the nepotism that tested even Russian tolerance for corrupt practice. There is a realistic possibility that her further elevation is indicative of the increasing insularity of the Russian elite.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 7:09 am to
Oil depot in Russia's Rostov Oblast attacked by drones of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence and Special Operation Forces – videos

VALENTYNA ROMANENKO, Roman Petrenko — Wednesday, 28 August 2024, 11:41

Ukrainian-made attack UAVs have hit an oil depot in Russia’s Rostov Oblast as a result of a joint operation by Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) and the Special Operation Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (SOF).

Source: an Ukrainska Pravda source in DIU

Details: This facility is part of the Russian defence industrial base and is directly involved in supplying Russian forces.

Eyewitnesses report that the oil depot’s tanks are still on fire.

For reference: The Atlas plant of the Federal Agency for State Reserves in the Southern Federal District specialises in the supply of petroleum products to the Russian Armed Forces.

Russian media reports indicate that in August 2020, the plant hosted joint exercises by the Russian Ministry of Defence and Rosrezerv as part of the Caucasus 2020 exercise.

The demonstration exercises on the supply of petroleum products for the needs of the army involved three methods – road, rail and pipeline.

Ukrainska Pravda
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 7:51 am to
Random tweets

quote:

?????????? For almost two years now, Germany has been feeling the consequences of the disruption of the Nord Stream gas pipelines and the destruction of the solid foundation of Russian-German energy cooperation.

However, only a few have the courage to recognize this. Only the current opposition parties - Alternative for Germany, the Left and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance - are talking about giving a more or less clear answer. In turn, the leaders of the ruling Traffic light coalition are eager to erase any mention of Anglo-Saxon sabotage from the media field.

Therefore, a reasonable question arises: why do the Western media publish materials with new details of gas pipeline bombings time after time?

It is obvious that systematic work is being carried out to strengthen the rivalry in the European Union, emphasizing the Eastern European countries. The traditional “locomotives” of the united Europe represented by France and Germany are gradually deflating on all fronts.

In this case, too, an excuse was created to publicly demonstrate Berlin's political failure time after time. Poles, Czechs and others see this, and no longer hide the mockery.

??The era of Scholz, Habeck, Berbock and Lindner is coming to its inglorious end. Posterity will remember them as gutless, faded politicians who betrayed their people. And the first nail in their coffin will probably be the elections in the three eastern federal states this September.

Rybar

quote:

In the Russian city of Novomichurinsk, Ryazan region, a local resident captured an explosion and fire at a power plant.

LINK

quote:

Hungarian National Arrested on Charges of Conspiring to Export U.S. Military-Grade Radios to Russian Government End Users


LINK

quote:

??russia is forced to review its air defense strategy due to the successful strikes of Ukraine, — Business Insider.

russia now has to decide where to place its air defense assets, which creates new opportunities for Ukrainian attacks on less protected areas.

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that russia does not have enough air defense equipment to protect all the necessary facilities, even in supposedly safe areas.

LINK

quote:

There is no support in NATO for the idea of shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine, - Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz has said

According to him, there is "a lot of skepticism" among the alliance countries and no state will make such a decision alone.

LINK

quote:

Employees at the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery are currently being evacuated due to the threat of a potential UAV attack. Security forces received information about a possible drone strike, prompting the evacuation of Slavneft-YANOS Oil Refinery personnel to a safe location.

LINK

quote:

At least five drones attacked an oil depot in the Kirov region. Astra publishes the moment of the attack.

This is the first attack on the Kirov region since the beginning of the war.

LINK

Posted by bigjoe1
Member since Jan 2024
1861 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:01 am to
quote:

This is the first attack on the Kirov region since the beginning of the war.


Saw another report that says this is about 1500km from Ukraine. Really reached out and touched them.
Posted by trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
19963 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:03 am to
quote:

Losing Pokrovsk has catastrophic potential for Ukraine largely because of its role in the supply chain.


Bingo.

Those folks up there who "invaded" a bunch of trees, are gonna find themselves, hungry and cold without ammo. And the whole front will be compromised when they lose that rail hub.

In addition Russia is bombarded power infrastructure throughout the country, for a second day in a row, in a magnitude not see in quite a while. An infrastructure that was already running at 50% capacity.

Cargo pants better stop wasting precious resources on these publicity stunts like capturing trees and blowing up gas stations, and start defending his people.

What kind of leader would waste precious resources hundreds of miles from the front while the center line is crumbling quicker than their economy did.

And he needs to stfu about the west "unleashing" the weapons. The amount of money, weapons and "support" we have given him, the friggin mandeville sheriff's department could have routed Europe......and this sorry excuse just keeps losing ground.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13312 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:20 am to
You're melting
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42606 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:22 am to
Did it upset you to see Ukraine rampaging in your homeland?
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150128 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:28 am to
Now this is a melt
Posted by REG861
Ocelot, Iowa
Member since Oct 2011
38159 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:40 am to
Guys , according to Lima on the PT, the Russians have broken through and Kyiv is falling imminently ! This time it’s for real!
This post was edited on 8/28/24 at 8:42 am
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13312 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:48 am to

quote:

according to Lima on the PT, the Russians have broken through and Kyiv is falling imminently ! This time it’s for real!


This is an actual quote from the first page of that thread:

quote:

This war doesn’t seem real. How has Russia not destroyed them yet? All we see is a short clip a few times a month of some drone dropping a grenade in a cowering Russian. I don’t believe it’s really happening.


This is the standard mentality of a PT board poster. Everything is a conspiracy. Nothing is real. No one knows the truth. If it's something that is widely reported in the media, then it's deliberate misinformation. And you're a sheeple sleeping through your fake life if you believe it.

But back room message boards full of anonymous posters from basements all over the world? That's where the real facts get teased to the surface. You just have to put in the work!!!! (All hail Q!).
Posted by REG861
Ocelot, Iowa
Member since Oct 2011
38159 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:49 am to
Can we start doing a daily “bat shite crazy PT post of the day?”
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61723 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:55 am to
quote:

Can we start doing a daily “bat shite crazy PT post of the day?”


LOL
The problem with that is we would need a separate board for that because the options for picking out crazy PT post are endless.
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