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bigjoe1
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| Number of Posts: | 1991 |
| Registered on: | 1/15/2024 |
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quote:Strait of Hormuz like crisis looms for Russia CNN.com
About a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports is shipped through the Sea of Azov, according to Andrey Sizov, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets analyst.
“The Black Sea for (the) wheat market is similar to what the Persian Gulf means for the crude market. (The) Black Sea is by far the biggest supplier of wheat to the global market,” he said, adding that if the situation continues, Russia’s economic losses could climb into billions of dollars.
Prices of wheat futures, a key indicator of traders’ expectations, have jumped in recent days, partly because of the Azov Sea crisis. Russia claims it can bypass the Sea of Azov and reroute all of its grain exports via other terminals in the Black Sea, but Sizov said this would not be possible during the peak season when Russia’s total grain exports far exceed the capacity of those ports.
1
quote:Ukraine strikes on Russian refineries cause chaos in diesel market Oilprice.com
Ukraine has spent 2026 moving through the Russian refining system, plant by plant.
Saratov halted operations after a March strike. Kirishi, one of the largest refineries in European Russia, lost capacity after attacks in March and May. Norsi in Kstovo suffered repeated strikes, including reported damage to a primary processing unit. The Moscow refinery was hit several times in June and may remain offline through the end of the year. Syzran, Novokuybyshevsk, Volgograd, Ryazan, Taneco, Ilsky, Afipsky and plants in the Bashneft group have all been attacked.
And overnight on July 14, Ukrainian drones struck the Afipsky refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, one of the country’s important refining centers on the Black Sea, while also targeting Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat in Bashkortostan, one of Russia’s largest integrated refining and petrochemical complexes. Ukrainian forces also claimed another 11 vessel strikes in the Sea of Azov, extending the maritime campaign that has disrupted tanker traffic through the Kerch Strait and the Volga-Don waterway.
Repeat strikes have turned repairs into a losing battle. Ukraine returned to the Moscow refinery, Norsi and Syzran after the initial attacks, hitting the same facilities again before operators could restore full output, according to Meduza documentation. Even under normal conditions, a planned refinery overhaul can take weeks or months.
Really long article
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by bigjoe1 on 7/15/26 at 6:27 am to notiger1997
quote:Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russian Black Sea shipping oilprice.com
After striking 116 vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov in recent weeks, Ukraine’s military is turning its sights on ships in the Black Sea, hitting in drone attacks as many as 20 vessels overnight on Wednesday.
Ukrainian forces struck 17 Russia-linked oil tankers, 2 gas carriers, and one tugboat early on July 15, drone unit commander Robert Brovdi said on Telegram today, adding that an official report with video evidence would follow later in the day.
“The first round of the naval battle is over,” the commander wrote, referring to the Sea of Azov, where Ukraine had focused its drone attack efforts in the past few weeks, alongside targeting refineries deep into Russian territory.
“Now, the Black Sea,” Brovdi said, hinting that Ukraine’s campaign to strike oil and gas vessels is expanding to the Black Sea, a key export route for crude and fuels from the south of Russia.
Ukraine has ramped up drone attacks against Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov and Taganrog Bay. Ukrainian officials reported striking 15 vessels in a single overnight operation on July 14, bringing their total to over 105 targeted ships within an eight-day window. These strikes have been targeting tankers and cargo ships suspected of belonging to Russia’s "shadow fleet" or transporting looted Ukrainian grain and fuel supplies.
Russia has also attacked commercial vessels near Odesa. A Tuesday attack killed five seafarers and injured 12 others in one of the deadliest single strikes on commercial shipping since the start of the war. According to Odesa authorities, a Russian drone struck a Togo-flagged general cargo ship while it was unloading fertilizer, sparking a major fire, while the Russian defense ministry claims the strikes were targeting military cargo.
The ramp-up of the naval strikes comes alongside a months-long Ukrainian campaign to hit Russian refineries to cripple fuel supply and deepen the fuel crisis in Russia.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
quote:
But Ukraine won’t strike this refinery because the US won’t authorize a strike inside Belarus.
Probably not but, the gas has to get to Russia by railcar or convoys of tanker trucks. Once in Russia those are in play.
Given Russia's treatment of Ukraine in the past, the Ukrainians were likely looking at an extinction event had Russia steamrolled.
I also believe had Russian won in a walkover the Baltic states were next.
I also believe had Russian won in a walkover the Baltic states were next.
quote:Russian banking crisis? Yahoo Finance
An energy crisis is already ravaging Russia's economy, and a banking crisis may soon erupt as a mountain of debt weighs on consumers and businesses.
According to a European intelligence report seen by Reuters, the Kremlin has relied on banks to pump up the economy with massive liquidity, as its own budget comes under growing strain from Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine.
What measures might Russia take to access funds?
State programs even encouraged millions of Russians to take out three or more loans simultaneously. But lenders are now vulnerable amid the soaring indebtedness and deteriorating loans, while consumers buckle under high inflation.
The June report, which was prepared as the European Union eyes another round of Russia sanctions, estimated that 10% of corporate ?loans may not be repaid, up sharply from 2024, while 15% of retail loans at some top banks may be non-performing.
In addition, the number of Russians who declared bankruptcy last year jumped by almost a third to more than 500,000. But state-backed credit programs, loan restructurings and government aid ?are obscuring how bad conditions are.
"The situation creates the illusion of a dynamic economy ?that, in reality, conceals an explosive situation which an economic shock, such as an ambitious package of sanctions against banks … could trigger," the report said, according to Reuters.
The worsening state of Russia's financial sector mirrors its performance on the battlefield. New Ukrainian tactics and drones have halted Russia's advance, pushed casualties above the replacement rate, and decimated the country's oil infrastructure.
Damage to Russian refineries has created dire fuel shortages across the countries. Meanwhile, lower oil prices and Ukrainian attacks on exports have slashed the Kremlin's energy revenue.
As a result, Russia's federal budget deficit ballooned to 6 trillion rubles ($83 billion) by the end of May, more than double 2025's level, blowing past the 3.8 trillion rubles that was projected for all of this year.
The government has been drawing down reserves in its sovereign wealth fund to close the gap, but that well is almost dry.
With few other sources to tap to pay for the Ukraine war, the Kremlin could set its sights on the general population's nest eggs.
The finance ministry is preparing legislation that could let it gain access to $40 billion in pension savings held in privately managed funds.
Similarly, the leader of Russia's Communist Party told parliament recently that 130 trillion rubles held in bank accounts should be "mobilized" to address the country's economic and budget woes.
Such talk has sparked panic in Russia's business community, which is already grappling with onerous interest rates and expansive Western sanctions.
"The government could try to take money by any means," a Moscow executive told the Washington Post. "Everyone is thinking about how to get their money out and leave."
Warnings about Russia's finances have been building for months. Last June, Russian banks raised red flags on a potential debt crisis as high interest rates weighed on borrowers' ability to pay off loans. Also that month, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs warned many companies were in "a pre-default situation."
The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, a state-backed Russian think tank, said in December the country could face a banking crisis by October if loan troubles worsen and depositors pull out their funds.
Earlier this year, Russian officials told Putin that a financial crisis could hit by the summer amid spiraling inflation. In fact, Russian statistics show that nonpayments of commercial bills hit $109 billion in January.
And in May, sources told the Russian newspaper Izvestia that nearly 25% of the bond market is now at risk of default as businesses that borrowed at low rates must refinance at much higher ones.
The volume of debt that needs to be rolled over this year is about double from last year, adding pressure on cash flows and raising competition for liquidity, according to the report, which cited a source that called the default problem a systemic trend.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
quote:Russian fuel crisis threatens grain harvest Reuters
Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian fuel production
Most Russian regions have imposed restrictions
Drivers crowdsource tips on where and when to fill up
July 2 (Reuters) - In Russia's grain belt, farmers fret they will be unable to harvest their crops as a fuel crisis ?sparked by Ukraine's drone attacks on oil refineries and depots disrupts daily life.
As Kyiv tries to pressure Moscow into making peace ?with strikes on the country's energy infrastructure, the resulting damage has squeezed oil-rich Russia's fuel supplies, leading to restrictions in most regions and growing public disquiet.
This has pushed drivers to crowdsource maps and trade tips about which stations have fuel and shorter lines. The shortage has also frayed tempers, with drivers shown in footage on social media getting into ?fights as they wait to refuel.
In one video, titled 'The Ultimate Luxury 2026,' a man slowly pours petrol into his lawnmower from a ?jerry can and jokes: "What riches. Who can afford this now?"
Meanwhile, online searches for "how to siphon fuel" rose to more than ?9,300 by June 21 from 697 a month earlier, website iPhones.ru said, citing Yandex data.
In some regions, retail gasoline prices have risen to some of the ?highest levels in Europe, Reuters calculations show.
Gasoline prices in Sevastopol, the largest city in Russian-controlled Crimea, jumped 30% in the last week alone, state statistical ?agency Rosstat said on Wednesday.
While average gasoline prices in Russia stood at 72.38 roubles ($0.9256) per litre as recently as last week, Rosstat said, some stations in regions hit by shortages showed prices of $2.42 per litre, according to Reuters witnesses.
Evidence of the widening impact of Kyiv's campaign is uncomfortable for authorities in Russia, which has repeatedly attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure since ?launching what it calls its special military operation in 2022, leaving large numbers of Ukrainians without power or heating during winter.
Moscow initially played down fuel ?shortages as localised bottlenecks, but on Sunday President Vladimir Putin acknowledged there were issues and promised measures to stabilise the market.
00:05
He said it was particularly important to maintain supplies ?to the ?agricultural sector "because the harvest depends on it".
One social media post highlights farmers in the fertile Black Earth region struggling to afford fuel for harvest, while another describes a farmer having to drive his combine harvester to a regular gas station after he was not allowed to fill a can.
Reuters could not independently verify the accounts.
MOSCOW SAYS PROBLEMS ARE BEING ADDRESSED
Putin's point man on energy, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, said on Wednesday that the problems were being addressed.
Reuters reported ?exclusively that Russia had begun seaborne ?gasoline imports from India and that Kazakhstan had ?agreed to supply 50,000 metric tons to Russia in July and August.
Even before the shortages escalated last month, Russians were feeling more pessimistic about economic conditions than at any time in the past 20 years, a poll showed this ?week.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
As strikes continue, prolonged fuel shortages could erode public support for the war, which began in February 2022 with ?Russia's invasion of Ukraine ?and is now in its fifth year.
Some areas are seeing basic services cut back. In the Zabaikalsky region, bordering China and Mongolia, authorities cancelled some bus routes and a waste-collection firm suspended services in four districts, citing fuel constraints.
"More scary is how much groceries will cost. All deliveries are done by road," one person ?posted on ?an article about the cuts on the website of regional news outlet Chita.ru.
More than 100 ?people "liked" the comment.
Waiting in line at a filling station in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don on Monday, Tatiana Sedykh told Reuters she was glad she used diesel. "The line for gasoline is just ?insane ... I'm starting to think maybe I should begin walking to work."
($1 = 78.2000 roubles)
quote:
If proven Russia or Ukraine poisoned him what does the US do in response?
He was a huge supporter of Ukraine. Guarantee they didn't do it.
re: Djt new statement on Iran’s rumored assassination plans
Posted by bigjoe1 on 7/11/26 at 7:10 am to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
The Secret Service protects him the rest of his life.
I doubt Iran gets to him but, his extended family will need protection for years andyears.
re: Huge trade on the NASDQ 100
Posted by bigjoe1 on 7/10/26 at 6:51 am to Billy Blanks
quote:
What sparked this? That's a lot of money.
Get a hunch-bet a bunch! :lol:
Huge trade on the NASDQ 100
Posted by bigjoe1 on 7/9/26 at 8:54 pm
quote:CNBC
Tech bulls may not have to wait much longer for fresh highs, if the single-biggest trade in the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF
on Thursday is any indication.
The trader spent $24 million on a three-part call spread that needs the Nasdaq-100 index to make an all-time high by the end of this month, a high-conviction directional bet and the third-biggest trade among all options exchanged on Thursday.
Despite recent volatility, the Nasdaq 100
has been effectively flat since May 14. The index last made a high on June 3, with most options volume centering around the $710 level, according to data from ThinkOrSwim. At the same time, the S&P 500
has been trading in a roughly 200-point range since early May.
The main piece of the bullish position, executed about 90 minutes after the opening bell, was a $30 million purchase of 28,000 736-strike calls expiring July 31. At the same time, the person sold $6 million worth of the 730/740-strike call spread expiring the same date, lowering the cost of the trade, but pushing the breakeven up to about $750 – less than $2 above the QQQ high from early June
re: Iran will not let up until they have financial interest over the Strait
Posted by bigjoe1 on 7/8/26 at 10:59 pm to RollingwiththeTide
quote:
The IRGC could be completely out of weapons but it doesn’t matter because the threats and claims they make backs them up because no knows what they have or don’t have left so what they say must be taken seriously.
Problem is, they're not out of missiles and mines. They keep popping them off.
What else should and insurance carrier of shipping carrier do?Sail right into an active combat zone?
re: Home prices up 30% because of Biden era illegal immigration
Posted by bigjoe1 on 7/5/26 at 10:46 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Without those terrible policies from Trump and Biden we probably don't even notice the impact of the illegals on the market
With 25mm or more illegals I'm pretty sure we would notice. Accounting for 30% of home price inflation is significant.
re: Attended My First Jewish Funeral
Posted by bigjoe1 on 7/5/26 at 10:57 am to Aubie Spr96
Why would it be disturbing?
Sounds like he lived a good full life.
Sounds like he lived a good full life.
Honest to God-never even noticed the couch. Just thought those baws couldn't count! :cheers:
Or, "undocumented".
Just a damn shame it's to the point where picking up 10K is a drop in the bucket.
Just a damn shame it's to the point where picking up 10K is a drop in the bucket.
Sophie Cunningham reacts to the viral meme's
Posted by bigjoe1 on 7/4/26 at 7:28 am
quote:Yahoo Sports
In her “Show Me Something” podcast on Monday,Cunningham shared how things escalated.
“I was literally talking to the refs. … I was like, ‘Now, Caitlin got (a technical foul), but why didn’t (Bonner) get one?’ I was just pointing and (Bonner’s) like, ‘Don’t you point at me!’ And I was like, ‘Aw, (you) shouldn’t have said that.’ And I didn’t say a word.”
Cunningham added what she thought of her action:
“So stupid. That is the stupidest thing I’ve ever done. Everyone’s like, ‘That is so dumb.’ I think it’s dumb! But, like, it was pissing her off, and, like, I couldn’t help myself.”
This girl just might become the face of the WNBA :bow:
Trump has said repeatedly Iran and Oman will not be allowed to charge tolls.
quote:
You would have shot him?
Had he done that at the Baptist church in this little town there is no doubt in my mind he would not have made it to the sanctuary.
In the video she first claps her hands. Catlain Clark got a technical for clapping.
WNBA has got to fix their officiating
WNBA has got to fix their officiating
quote:
I am part of the security detail at our church and I conceal carry every Sunday. We plan and train for various scenarios.
In my little hometown in NE. Al. the FBC, Methodist and Church of Christ all have security details on duty during services. Had Don Lemon tried that stunt at one of these churches the outcome woud have been way different than in Minneapolis .
Just a damn shame it's come to this.
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