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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by Lee B on 8/19/26 at 11:35 am to Chromdome35
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The point was that Ukraine is preparing extensive defensive lines just over the border from the Donbass. The question is why create such extensive fortifications outside of the Donbas with one POSSIBLE answer being that if they end up giving up the Donbas, they will have a good border defense in place on day 1.
It's a POSSIBLE signal that they are preparing for Russia controlling all of the Donbas. Since Russia can't take it, the only way all of the work and investment make sense is that Ukraine would end up ceding it in a peace agreement.
I'm fully aware that Ukraine has said they wouldn't give it up, but things change.
Just to be clear, you're not the someone I was referring to.
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What am I missing?
I don't think you're missing anything. I think someone got their wires crossed.
The idea that Ukraine is going to give up the rest of the Donbas in exchange for peace is absurd. That was the "Spirit of Anchorage"— what Putin wanted a year ago.
Yeah, someone used something to "confirm" that they had relinquished the Donbas that did not indicate that at all... they have dug defensive trenches outside the Donbas. "That conifrms that they have relinquished it!!!"
Ukraine will keep offering the idea of possibly ceding land in negotiations... because they know that every time they do, Putin will move the goalposts. The point is to expose Russia's dishonesty and maximalist goals. The trenches are dug on the other side of where the invaders are currently... they're not a new international marker or anything.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by Lee B on 8/16/26 at 12:57 pm to Coeur du Tigre
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Ok, here's an officer you'll fight for.
Who would downvote this?
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Their high casualty rate is also inherently deflationary.
Au contraire. The casualty rate requires the recruitment of 30,000 soldiers every month, which leaves Russian industry increasingly desperate to find workers, which leads to wage inflation. Russia's unemployment rate is something like 2.2%.
and I saw that Russia is having a problem luring foreign workers, since they just grabbed those workers and sent them to the front as troops in the very recent past...
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Never mind that Ukraine produces thousands per year at $300k each. And we make 50 Tomahawks a year at $3 million apiece.
Why do you think that is?
Tomahawks are very sophisticated and work-intensive to manufacture... they are not cranked out on an assembly line, really... they are essentially handmade.
Now, why were they designed that way, and why was the project approved if that was the case/cost?
Part of it is our beloved military-industrial complex and its partners in the Pentagon and Congress, the latter of whom are counting on executive jobs in that private sector when they leave the military/government.
Part of it is a blind spot (which should've been awakened after Vietnam, but certainly after 9/11) to asymmetrical warfare... which is ironic since the United States employed asymmetrical warfare to win its independence from Great Britain. The expectation was that Patriots would be intercepting missiles that cost 10x+ more per unit... not much cheaper Shahed-type drones. The strategy of overwhelming air defense with cheap drones so that a couple of ballistic missiles can slip through and do maximum damage wasn't considered when the platforms were designed. And our defense industry is still kind of going "uh...." while Ukraine had to come up with something fast, which could be manufactured quickly and was cost-effective, or they would be screwed. Innovation through necessity versus designing things based on guesses of how things might be used.
Edited to add: I read someone's opinion that the reason Trump did an about face on licensing Patriot manufacturing to Ukraine was the fear by the stateside manufacturer that they would make them for much less money.
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Based on what?
See, e.g, Afghanistan, Iran.
Based on U.S. invasions and occupations?
That suggests the U.S. will get sick of being involved in Iran (which has pretty much happened, already) before an invasion and attempted occupation even happen, not that collective West will get tired of helping Ukraine fight a Russian invasion.
Russia is the equivalent of the US in the Afghnistan comparison, which helped topple the Soviet Union when it was actually Russia occupying that country
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Based on what?
See, e.g, Afghanistan, Iran.
Based on U.S. invasions and occupations?
That suggests the U.S. will get sick of being involved in Iran (which has pretty much happened, already) before an invasion and attempted occupation even happen, not that collective West will get tired of helping Ukraine fight a Russian invasion.
Russia is the equivalent of the US in the Afghnistan comparison, which helped topple the Soviet Union when it was actually Russia occupying that country
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by Lee B on 7/23/26 at 9:44 pm to Coeur du Tigre
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This guy gets it -
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Notice what Ukraine’s new command named as its targets: not cities, not territory — Russia’s revenue.
Refineries. Tankers. Export terminals. The stated doctrine is now ‘exhausting Russia’s economy.’
For most of history, armies targeted armies. Ukraine is targeting cash flow.
I run money for a living, so forgive the professional observation: this is a balance-sheet war now. Every sortie is a capital allocation decision — spend thousands, delete millions, and let the damage compound through Moscow’s subsidy bill and import costs.
Russia can replace soldiers through fraud and conscription. It cannot conscript revenue.
The front line that decides this war appears on no map.
It appears on a spreadsheet in the Russian finance ministry — and it is turning red.
YES!!!
But... is this new news?
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One thing we DON'T have is a populace used to doing without. It will take a LOT more to impact Russians than it would to impact the US.
You surely don't mean that the Russian people can't just vote Putin out of power, do you!?!
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Zelensky fires anyone that disagrees with him.
I think you mistyped Trump there, Sporto.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by Lee B on 7/23/26 at 7:45 pm to VolSquatch
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We actually suppress some pure capitalist components of our ag industry with stricter regulations and government subsidies, and still do better than Russia (and most countries FWIW). Russia has price controls on some ag products... A socialist relic of another time.
Our food policy seems nuts, but it's done to stop overproduction and a collapse of the food industry because of too much cheap food hitting the marketplace at once... which then would cause a scarcity crisis when there are no companies left in business. We pay farmers to throw away their entire season's yields, or to skip planting altogether for a year or two... or three... It's also why I laugh at any complaints about what can be bought with "Food Stamps" or whatever they're called now, because I can remember how the same stuff gets banned over and over and over... then quietly put back, because the grocers and Soda compaies have lobbyists and make campaign contributions, and they're not getting left out of this stimulus program (you think we have that because we give a shite about poor people?).
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Things seem to be going great.
Compared to your side's usual splatter beneath windows and poisonings, it actually is going real regular.
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Putin should have sent his weapon engineers to a Quality Learing Center.
This is a gun taken off of (or at the least designed, engineered, and built to be mounted on) helicopters.
They've probably taken them off of helicopters they can't find parts to keep in the air... and it never occurred to them that what happened in this vid would be the result.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by Lee B on 7/9/26 at 2:00 pm to VolSquatch
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Thus comparing success rates in wars between the systems is kind of pointless (or maybe just too obvious to matter is a better way of framing it) because democracies are more likely to pass on wars that are unfavorable and autocrats start wars they can't win more often because of inherent structures within those systems. Autocracies also suppress meritocracy so you have less qualified people in higher up positions just based on loyalty to the autocrat. WW2 Germany, especially late in the war, was rampant with that issue.
You just restated the points of the theory.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by Lee B on 7/9/26 at 1:54 pm to VolSquatch
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I'm interested to hear the logic behind the posters who believe Russia is holding Epstein stuff over Trump now. What happened with that?
Are you talking about me, because I'm not sure I believe that... though I joke about it constantly.
I don't think it's impossible that Russia has SOMETHING on Trump... at the very least, they lent him billions starting in the 90s when he was toxic and bankrupt and nobody would lend him cab fare.
And I think one reason he's uncomfortable with the prospect of Putin losing power, beyond being defeated in Ukraine, is...
well, when a regime collapses in a country run by a DIctator (Orban, for example... and he had pretty much eliminated political opposition's chances of defeating him... but he got so corrupt the challenge came from someone who was once in his party), the minute they're out of power people start trying to cover their own asses or benefit, and all the dirty laundry comes out into the open.
So if Putin falls, we might get to see that Pee tape!!!
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Would someone in Russia please just push the midget off a building already. How delusional does Putin have to be to actually believe his own propaganda that Russia has not been trying its hardest to capture the Donbas for the past 4 years?
I've mentioned that I know a guy who is a Poli Sci teacher and his specialty is Russia...
We were talking about the current state of things, and how Ukraine has the upper hand... and how Putin will never back down, until he's dead. And my buddy says "well, he can't... someone under him would use that as an example of weakness and make a plot with a few people to kill him. There is no retirement home for Dictators. Which is why Maduro is so strangely calm and jolly being taken to an American prison, because this is the best possible ending he could ever hope for... eventually he was going to be overthrown and kicked to death or something. But Putin can never stop... and actually, he's going to do something even dumber the more desperate he gets... he will probably attack Poland or the Baltic States... what does he have to lose if he's losing. But he also doesn't believe he can lose if he keeps at it, because he's never lived in a Democracy. He thinks if you just inconvenience people in countries that are first world Democracies enough, they capitulate and will even surrender to him rather than have to fight. And... Democracies do not lose existential defensive wars. I'm not talking about Vietnam, that was not existential for the US... Democracies do not lose wars when their own existence and freedom are on the line. Putin thought the Ukrainians would just surrender, but they didn't and they aren't going to..."
I thought for a second and offered France in WWII, he said "they were outmaneuvered and screwed, they surrendered and kind of colluded, but the people waged a insurgency in little ways that helped the allies a lot.
I'd never considered or heard anyone offer up his theory... but it makes sense... and looking it up:
Success Rate of Democracies in Wars
Democracies have a remarkable track record when it comes to warfare.
Research indicates that they rarely lose wars they initiate, achieving a victory rate of approximately 93%. This high success rate is attributed to several factors that enhance their effectiveness in military conflicts.
Factors Contributing to Success
Reelection Anxiety: Elected leaders are motivated to avoid losing wars due to the potential political consequences, which encourages them to engage in conflicts they are likely to win.
Superior Information Flow: Democracies benefit from independent media that promote open debate, allowing for better decision-making regarding military actions.
Public Support: Democratic leaders often rely on public backing, which can influence their military strategies and choices.
Comparison of War Outcomes
Type of Regime / Win Rate in Wars
Democracies / 93%
Autocracies / 46%
This table illustrates the stark contrast in war outcomes between democracies and autocracies, highlighting the effectiveness of democratic regimes in military engagements.
In summary, while no regime type is immune to failure, democracies have proven to be highly successful in the wars they choose to fight.
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How much ammo can the Russians there have?
An army runs on its stomach.
The Russian Army runs on its Vodka...
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Ukraine advancing in Kostyantynivka?
How much ammo can the Russians there have?
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Published by Foreign Policy, June 3
The New Weapon Behind Ukraine’s Battlefield Success
Spoiler... It's mid range drones.
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Ukraine’s mid-range attack drones force Russia to either take expensive or time-wasting security precautions in how it delivers troops, food, munitions, and fuel, or else risk further losses. “It’s going to make it more difficult for Russia to advance, because it’s going to increase the cost for them,” Lee said.
Ukraine is doubling down on the tactic. Strikes targeting Russians 12 miles or more from the front line have quadrupled since February, Zelensky said in May, calling it a “priority.”
So I guess that's the "focus on the front" and "not just droning a gas station in Russia" thing people have screamed they should be doing!
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by Lee B on 7/9/26 at 10:26 am to VolSquatch
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Trump sat in on the case, which will be one of the things throughout history that will be remembered about his presidency.
It will... he believes he can make the SCOTUS make the decision he wants... they "owe him."
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by Lee B on 7/9/26 at 10:25 am to VolSquatch
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If he just flip flopped on things so he isn't on the losing side he could have easily changed his tune on Birthright citizenship since it was clear he was going to lose that one.
Trump's screaming at the SCOTUS to reverse their ruling on Birthright Citizenship.
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