Lee B

I love the "Darth Putin" account.

It should be noted, though, that Chomsky was anti-Soviet and pointed to it as an example of a dangerous Authoritarian regime.

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I think there is another avenue open to Ukraine. IF (big IF) Ukraine can continue to stalemate Russia on the ground by relying on both air and ground based drone systems, then all they have to do is sit back and wait for Russia to throw in the towel. Can they wait out Russia? I don't know, but Ukraine's drone strikes deep into Russia are having an impact on the russian economy. In that case, what matters is Russia's willingness to continue to absorb increasingly painful attacks.

1st - Russia is much closer to its tipping point today than they were 4 years ago. I don't think anyone could reasonably argue otherwise.
2nd - Even while Ukraine has been slowly bleeding out, they have been able to stop and stalemate Russia. Russia appears to be incapable of making any gains, even with Ukraine losing the attrition battle. This is due to Ukraine's dominance in the drone warfare space. I think a reasonable person would agree with this as well.

So I think Ukraine has a path to victory, but in no way is it certain that they can achieve it.

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Well I'm just glad you understand all of that...

Now, I think someone posted something here about Russian military bloggers screaming about Russian troops being sent to be instantly killed by drones everyday. So I think that might complicate things domestically inside Russia.

EDIT... robotics covered in the thread... hard to keep up

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These pardons issued by Biden were wrong and in many opinions only stand due to the fact that they have not been tested. They covered no specific illegal acts, just the possibility of arrest and conviction. Pardon law requires an established conviction, so how can they be pardons? Once tested in court, they will likely be found to have no basis in law.

On the other hand, what Trump is suggesting is pardoning known, specific criminal acts. Mostly involving corruption, some involving treason. Crimes that a future DoJ would be very motivated to prosecute. So this idea of preemtive pardoning is likely to fail. With a different President, it will certainly be tested.

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After this President, the pardon system will be reigned in... but so will the ability of the President to control the Department of Justice to this degree.

I think China looks at Imperial Japan trying to be a military empire occupying a big swath of the world and being defeated. Then they look at 60s/70s/80s Japan as a technological economic force that almost took over the world, with little resistance and almost tacit acceptance by the West, but failed because of internal economic factors. I believe Xi sees the latter as the blueprint to follow, if they can manage (and manipulate) the internal economic side of things, which seems to constantly bite them in the arse a bit.

They don't seem to have big blue water Navy ambitions... but they are cranking out patrol boats that could probably fit in our living rooms by the hundreds or thousands. The South China Sea (including Taiwan) is pretty much China's Ukraine... well along with the East China Sea...

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huge rift in the pro-Ukrainian side of the thread between the Trump supporters and the non-Trump supporters


How many Trump supporters do you know outside of TDS? Most I know are pro-Ukraine and that hasn't changed.

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I live in Louisiana, so quite a few, including in-laws.

I don't understand how that relates to my statement. Among the Ukraine supporters in this thread, there are Trump supporters and non-Trump supporters... and we end up in arguments about that as much as the pro-Ukraine vs. pro-Putin/"I'm just being realistic that Putin is going to win and won't listen to anything contradicting that though I'm not on his side" side...

Since you posted ansers to this same quote about different things after that, it's too confusing to figure out what exactly you're replying to...

I think China is way more of a mess than we even realize, but I think we might be an even bigger mess that they are...

I see them focused on being self-contained, and no longer dependent on fossil fuels as quickly as they can get there... and focused on being an export economy (which they've achieved). A few years ago their coming demographic problems and the lack of a young workforce all a sudden was what was going to slow them down, but now they're filling up the country with "dark factories" that are completely automated. I read a guy saying we'd beat them with data centers because they have a shortage of fresh water, which is needed for cooling the centers, and we have more to work with... but I just read that they're building their data centers underwater off the coast.

We're building a new Navy of battleships to fight China... I don't think China is planning on having a hot war with us. They just plan on passing us up technologically and economically, making things people want so badly they can make them use the renminbi instead of the dollar in trading for it. I think they will win the innovation game as we're fighting to cling to 19th-century energy and turning away exchange students who have helped us maintain an edge (who China will gladly take) and pushing aside science and scientists. And they delight in every ally we alienate... doing the same thing we pulled on them to lure them away from Russia in the 1960s and 70s.

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he plan was that Europe would finally do what we had been begging them to do for 30 years - pay for your own defense!

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Who was begging for this from the White House, or anyplace else in American politics, 30 years ago?

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The plan was not for Europe to be weak, but for Europe to face reality and defend Europe so we could focus on confronting the Chinese threat.

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I'm almost convinced China will prevail, because the U.S. seems too dumb to even understand what they're actually doing.

Guns and guitars... An American either owns none or owns 30.

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I haven’t really kept up as much lately with work being crazy but it looks like the lines have barely moved in either direction. I’ve also been turned off by Europe and Ukraine’s new attitude towards America like we are the enemy when without our arsenal Ukraine would have fallen years ago. Now that we are for ing Europe to pay if they want our weapons because we need to restock our own munitions as well as stay ready for China because lets face it, NATO is bullshite and its nothing without the U.S. but if we git into a war with China you can bet our “allies” in Europe wouldn’t come help us so we have to be ready to fight alone if need be. Zelensky also is really ballsy to call the USA out now because Trump won’t just hand him a free check and weapons like Biden did. The more this war goes on a d Ukraine nor Russia won’t budge over a bunch of destroyed territory and barely shifting lines, the more I think neither ever intends to compromise to stop the killing of their own people so if thats the case then let Europe supply them and see just how far that goes. I’m 100% on Ukraine’s side but this craziness about them not willing to give up any territory when they don’t have the numbers or resources to take it back is maddening. Theres a lot of ungrateful “what have you done for me lately” people in NATO and Ukrainian leadership.

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I wasn't going to post this here, because it is a huge rift in the pro-Ukrainian side of the thread between the Trump supporters and the non-Trump supporters, but it is a bit important... when the U.S. put him back in office, Europe stopped thinking he was a problematic, undependable leader of the U.S. and started thinking the U.S. is a problematic, undependable nation with a problematic, undependable population. This is an existential thing for them, so imagine it in those terms: we are on the side of Putin in their minds (just as we tend to equate any dissent with our policies as a country siding with our enemies, like China or Iran...). And the unfortunate thing is that China is far from stupid, and they have moved to exploit that quickly, just as we would've/have done in situations. China will not roll tanks into Europe, that is not the game they are playing at all. Putin wants to roll tanks (or at least fly drones) into Europe, Europe is increasingly convinced that Trump will let him or possibly help him, so China can pitch itself as a cudgel against the two of them. That is the gist of this Op Ed. WIth the U.S. abdicating its role, Europe can't be its willing lap dog and longer... so the EU, with Ukraine assuming a natural leadership position among the top states because it is fighting the continent's biggest threat to a standstill, will actually seize the position the U.S. is stepping out of... of course, Europe was not supposed to do that, they were supposed to be weakened and made irrelevant, so the U.S. under its present leadership will just be more awful to them. Trump's open hostility to European nations, individually, the EU as an entity, and NATO as an alliance, is a threat to them, not some "tough love" as many of you endlessly insist... and they think of Vance as being even worse.

Of course, criticizing Trump is akin to insulting the religion of some of you, so the ad hominem attacks will fly at me personally for being the messenger, which is lame... and the "but Europe will be full of non-white immigrants who are by default evil" posts will come, too, I'm sure.

NYT: Opinion David French - Meet the New Leader of the Free World

DW (via MSN) Russia to block Kazakh oil flows on key pipeline supplying Berlin
Germany has confirmed that Russia will block flows of Kazakh oil to a vital refinery that supplies much of Berlin's energy needs from May 1.

Russia plans to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline from May 1

Another Strait of Hormuz...

Japan has changed it's internal rules that bound it to pacifism and did not allow it to participate in the international arms market... which I never thought about, how the world's leading electronics producer in the 80s and 90s was not involved in any of that... but now they are...

UNITED24: A Ukrainian-Japanese $2,500 Drone Is About to Change the Gulf War—And Sparks Russian Fury