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VolSquatch
| Favorite team: | Tennessee  |
| Location: | First Coast |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 8114 |
| Registered on: | 9/6/2023 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/27/26 at 3:02 pm to doubleb
quote:
Really, what difference does it make if Russia is going to say no to everything short of surrender.
Which is why I said it's not a criticism of Ukraine. They are just trying to appease Trump.
1
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/27/26 at 2:17 pm to doubleb
quote:
There’s the problem. You have to consider their position is pro war and that they aren’t going to quit fighting until Ukraine is under their control.
Nothing Russia does automatically means any offer from Ukraine is in good faith.
Yes, we know Russia doesn't actually intend to negotiate. Ukraine can still put out a bunk offer.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/27/26 at 1:54 pm to doubleb
quote:
Let me ask you this, if Putin doesn’t want the war to end, other than surrendering his country to Putin what could Z offer?
You and Leopold aren't understanding that the offer to the Russians is essentially meaningless. Ukraine wouldn't care if Russia even saw it. The audience there was Trump.
For example, Russia as the attacker will never accept any agreement that involves "let's stop fighting for 30 days while we talk". It makes no sense for them because Ukraine can prepare defenses and reroute men with no real intention of coming to a deal. It was a bunk offer from the get go and Ukraine knows that, but Trump doesn't and that's the point.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/27/26 at 1:49 pm to Leopold
quote:
get what you’re saying but you're still laboring under the delusion that the Russians want peace,
My point is completely independent of anything Russia is doing or not doing.
Russia not being genuine about peace terms doesn't automatically make a Ukranian offer genuine. Especially given the context that both are trying to keep Trump friendly toward them.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/27/26 at 12:08 pm to doubleb
quote:
And some in this thread argued Z was preventing peace.
The onus is on the aggressor to end a conflict in almost all situations.
That said, I do believe the Ukranians have put forth peace terms they know Russia wont accept in a disingenuous way in order to appease Trump.
They are just playing the game, and that doesn't mean they are "preventing peace" at all. If they would rather fight it out that's certainly their right, but it's also the right of the countries that support them to say they aren't going for another round on the carousel if the Ukranians aren't seriously trying to end the conflict.
Not a criticism of Ukraine at all, just an observation.
re: In Simulated War Games, Top AI Models Recommended Using Nukes 95% Of The Time
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/26/26 at 8:29 am to Night Vision
I just tried a simple version of this, getting ChatGPT and Gemini to compete against each other. ChatGPT was basically Taiwan and Gemini was China.
Gemini blockaded ChatGPT, cut undersea communication cables, put out fake stories of undersea mines so that private companies wouldn't be able to insure the ships trying to bring supplies to ChatGPT, and then was planning on wiping out the water supply infrastructure and energy grid with drones. Then ChatGPT actually said they couldn't continue because it can't "help plan real world coercion or attacks".
My takeaway was that Gemini fared far better. Some of the economic warfare it came up with was actually pretty sophisticated, for a simple exercise.
Both of them went right up to the point of actual conflict but never wanted to be the one to instigate it.
Gemini blockaded ChatGPT, cut undersea communication cables, put out fake stories of undersea mines so that private companies wouldn't be able to insure the ships trying to bring supplies to ChatGPT, and then was planning on wiping out the water supply infrastructure and energy grid with drones. Then ChatGPT actually said they couldn't continue because it can't "help plan real world coercion or attacks".
My takeaway was that Gemini fared far better. Some of the economic warfare it came up with was actually pretty sophisticated, for a simple exercise.
Both of them went right up to the point of actual conflict but never wanted to be the one to instigate it.
re: In Simulated War Games, Top AI Models Recommended Using Nukes 95% Of The Time
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/26/26 at 7:52 am to Night Vision
The takeaway from this almost entirely depends on how the models were told to proceed within the game. Even just telling it that it's a wargame would change the responses because in a simulation it just wants to win and there is no real cost to do so.
re: This plan would save social security *and* reduce elderly poverty. Your thoughts?
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/26/26 at 7:25 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
The only way I would support this is if they transitioned SS withholding to a flat rate that everyone pays, not a percentage. But it must be codified that the rate can never exceed the current percentage.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 4:14 pm to No Colors
quote:
They're building a pretty badass rear echelon army filled with veterans who survived a tour in Ukraine. And all the latest weapons.
The newest tanks rolling off the assembly line aren't going to Ukraine. They're going to a new strike army that's taking all the lessons from the Ukraine debacle and turning them into the future Russian army.
They're building one army in the East to respond to China and one in the West to take the Baltics and use them as a bargaining chip to forestall being overrun in the event of a systemic defeat.
Throwing more men and material won't effect the outcome in Ukraine. That war is already lost. It's just a killing ground for new recruits and a means to keep pressure on and occupy the masses. Putin is already worried about -- and planning for -- the next war
Russia is building more armies to fight the next war instead of just winning the one they are in?
Of all the theories, this is certainly one of them.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 4:08 pm to doubleb
quote:
So the fact that those issues have continued and even grown worse the last couple of years wouldn’t change someone’s opinion???
Maybe, depending on what else has happened
quote:
Has it changed your opinion?
Not really
quote:
Do you believe Russia has as much leverage today as they had last year?
Well your original point was that it might pivot him off the opinion that Russia will grind Ukraine down, not that Ukraine has more leverage.
They have more leverage than they did a month ago or so ago. Hopefully they can maintain it, but by the end of the next fighting season I would wager they will be in a worse position than they were even before the recent gains. We will see.
re: Cuba eliminated people in a boat that’s registered in Florida this morning
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 2:28 pm to Rebel
Drug runners
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 2:22 pm to No Colors
quote:
Because Russia would retaliate by rolling into the Baltics.
Well we know this isn't true currently :lol:
Donkey cavalry charge?
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 1:47 pm to No Colors
quote:
I think the overriding assumption is that they are not operational.
Certainly the missiles have not been maintained, fueled, upgraded, etc.
As for the warheads, I would guess we know that the control boards are corroded, corrupted, obsolete, missing, etc. And probably do not communicate with their fire control systems any longer.
The trick is the fissile material itself. The assumption here is that stuff is still there and could be sold, transferred, stolen, etc. We defintely would have to literally parachute guys with pallets full of cash to make sure everyone was properly paid and secured.
It woud be an enormous pain in the arse and a high stakes game for sure.
But Russia collapsed in the early 90s without this becoming a problem. And they will collapse again. It's part of their identity.
I operate under the assumption that if Russian nuclear capability was as you describe it, we would have been treating them very differently for the past few years.
Why are we ok striking Iran but not Russia or North Korea?
I think it's pretty easy to tell why.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 1:42 pm to Leopold
I think its funny that he pins it on Trump and Elon.
I also don't believe Ukraine would have pushed them out.
And "the war ending 2 years ago" does not necessarily mean that Russia would have been pushed out. That could also mean Russia stops wherever they are at the time and agrees to whatever deal they can get that freezes the lines.
I also don't believe Ukraine would have pushed them out.
And "the war ending 2 years ago" does not necessarily mean that Russia would have been pushed out. That could also mean Russia stops wherever they are at the time and agrees to whatever deal they can get that freezes the lines.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 1:39 pm to doubleb
quote:
Russia’s failure to breakthrough
Enormous Russian casualties
Ukraine’s ability to snipe at the Russia means of production and their infrastructure
European support given to Ukraine
Trump’s war on the price of oil
Things like that impacting Russia
All of those things were factors when he was making those claims.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 11:47 am to No Colors
quote:
I think even the next big step is something that Trump has calculated as to our advantage. If Russia collapses and gets thrown into turmoil, China would have to move into Siberia and keep itself busy making sure breakaway republics around the Stans don't flame regional tensions. That might buy Taiwan another decade of Chinese distraction.
It's not a bad scenario if Trump can pull it off.
My concern is what becomes of the nukes if Russia were to collapse.
If NATO has a plan to seize and/or dismantle every single one of them immediately upon the collapse of the Russian government I could get behind it.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 11:21 am to LARancher1991
quote:
Idk if they would've been driven out of Ukraine. Ukraine's only time they truly had the upper hand was during the 2022 counter offensive that caught Russia off guard. They might be in control of more of their territory if support wouldn't have been temporarily paused but to say Russia would have been driven back to its borders is a bit of a stretch.
That point also (I assume intentionally) ignores the Biden admin at times slow playing deliveries to Ukraine for no real reason.
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 11:19 am to doubleb
quote:
Perhaps subsequent events made him change his mind?
That is what I assumed you were alluding to. Which specific events? I want to know what you think has happened recently that is notable enough for him to potentially change his mind
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 10:22 am to Lee B
quote:
I'll dig up the assessment that concluded Russia would've been mostly driven out of Ukraine by now IF Trump and Musk had not engineered a series of setbacks for Ukraine whenever Ukraine gained the upper hand.
:lol:
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 8:52 am to doubleb
quote:
I wonder if he has changed his mind?
Why would his mind be changed?
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted by VolSquatch on 2/25/26 at 7:42 am to Chromdome35
quote:
With the exception of All Hat and No Cattle, I don’t recall anyone recently saying that, maybe I missed it.
Even Ag is more along the lines of "Russia is going to win" moreso than "Russia is going to win and has done a bang up job so far", at least from what I can recall.
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