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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/15/24 at 5:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 8/15/24 at 5:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
1. Ok so that means they will be available to use this time next year. The Biden administration always drags its feet.
2. The Biden-Harris administration won’t actually let Ukraine use them against Russia.
quote:
Maybe not, but remember that Crimea is not Russia. I really think that once Ukraine gets enough f-16s, if they're properly equipped, then Crimea is gettable for Ukraine.
I understand the pessimism, it is well-founded. However things are changing quickly. The White House is being dragged into the reality that neither themselves nor the Russians are in control of this war. The White House has been proven wrong on any number of red lines and they are seeing this now. I'm not criticizing them, the scenario of a collapse in the Kremlin with the Russian mafia selling nukes to the highest bidder justifies excess caution.
Right now, I believe that the White House wants to increase the heat slowly, but continually. I do believe the short range cruise missiles will first be employed against Crimea - especially the Kerch Bridge - and other occupied targets. Then targets inside Russia will follow, gradually extending further and further into Russia as needed. The 'as needed' is the important point. Don't panic Putin. Let the idea of defeat in Ukraine sink in slowly.
The goal is to show total control of Russian logistics and supply, one target at a time. Let Putin get used to the regular incremental escalation. If he hasn't done so already, let him gradually come to the conclusion that he cannot win this war and needs to negotiate on Ukrainian terms.
With putting the FSB in charge of the Kursk defense, he has shown that he is returning to his roots and asking the only people he trusts to take control. But the FSB is a police organization at its core. They have no military and especially no logistical experience. This will end badly for the Russians in Kursk as the present lack of command and control is not going to improve. The FSB does not believe in open communication of anything.
The cruise missiles will be used and they will be used against Russian targets. But as a slow, creeping escalation, showing Putin at every step that he must stop the war. On Ukrainian terms.
1
Posted on 8/15/24 at 5:52 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The White House is being dragged into the reality that neither themselves nor the Russians are in control of this war. The White House has been proven wrong on any number of red lines and they are seeing this now
I always thought a big part was the west was scared to push the red line threshold because they were afraid to rock the boat and had not stomach to risk any chance of “crossing a line”
However, I am now wondering if the the lack of military spending by nato members that they were at the realization that if Putin followed through on red line consequences there were ill equipped to respond. Now two years later they are in better position and Russia has been degraded in assets so that fear is fading. Now they are ready to force an end to this
Posted on 8/15/24 at 6:14 pm to No Colors
quote:They were as is widely reported, including in this thread
What were the bullet points of the April 2022 drafts?
Posted on 8/15/24 at 6:22 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
They were as is widely reported, including in this thread
I have seen them represented with extreme material differences, with not consensus. So I was wondering what your understanding of them is.
Posted on 8/15/24 at 6:23 pm to AU86
quote:
Why would you want to kiss that shitlib?
"We had sex with your women." Andrew Breitbart
Posted on 8/15/24 at 6:32 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 8/15/24 at 6:39 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party furthered a narrative echoing a Kremlin information operation meant to justify Russia’s violence against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states formerly colonized by the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.
What some people keep insisting is not happening?
This post was edited on 8/15/24 at 7:17 pm
Posted on 8/15/24 at 6:42 pm to No Colors
quote:
I have seen them represented with extreme material differences, with not consensus. So I was wondering what your understanding of them is.
The peace deal was whatever rumor you want to believe.
Posted on 8/15/24 at 6:43 pm to Jim Rockford
Was just coming to post this. Chaos and doubt are starting to sink in amongst even the cheerleaders. Even if the military gains of the Ukrainians have been nominal, the psychological gains have been enormous. They have changed the conversation- and that is invaluable.
This post was edited on 8/15/24 at 7:25 pm
Posted on 8/15/24 at 7:01 pm to CitizenK
quote:
quote:
Think you posted the wrong link. Not that it wasn't interesting....
Maybe a freudian slip. That is of a dude from Donaldsonville who loves Putin.
here is the proper link, and hope you laughed as hard as I did.
LINK
oh I am laughing!!!!
Posted on 8/15/24 at 7:02 pm to BigAppleTiger
Posted on 8/15/24 at 7:20 pm to BigAppleTiger
quote:
Was just coming to post this. Chaos and doubt is starting to sink in amongst even the cheerleaders. Even if the military gains of the Ukrainians have been nominal, the psychological gains have been enormous. They have changed the conversation- and that is invaluable.
I saw someone on X say "make no mistake... this is Russia's 9/11. It's one thing to live in unified paranoia about being invaded and defeated by the West, but to have someone you think of as small and inferior do it and be powerless to stop them is another thing. Which is why they keep saying 'with advanced NATO weaponry!!!'"
Posted on 8/15/24 at 7:24 pm to Lee B
quote:
I saw someone on X say "make no mistake... this is Russia's 9/11.
Zero reports of citizens picking up arms to fight the invaders like Ukraine had en masse. St. Petersburg and Moscow could care less unless their lives are impacted directly. Family daughter was in Moscow working on her master degree during the 1st Chechen war and pretty much the same thing. "Oh those Chechens are just troublemakers"
Posted on 8/15/24 at 7:52 pm to CitizenK
I can’t help but wonder what this would look like in the setting of the 2A.
Baws from the south would be fricking this shite up
Baws from the south would be fricking this shite up
Posted on 8/15/24 at 8:05 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Baws from the south would be fricking this shite up
Enough would. The big talkers would likely run or surrender. Way more long guns in PA, MI and WI. I've seen many a deer tied over the trunk of a car traveling between Detroit and Midland MI. More than I ever have in Louisiana, and that was just in 2 trips.
Posted on 8/15/24 at 8:11 pm to Jim Rockford
This is just a crazy excerpt from a CNN article today: LINK
The article reaffirms that Russia is still not treating the incursion seriously. They are still dedicated to the fantasy that a few more half-trained, 18-year-old kids thrown together under a dodgy command structure overseen by the FSB are going to be able to stop Ukraine's elite brigades equipped with NATO equipment.
And then the article turns right around and quotes "multiple US sources familiar with the intelligence" saying that Ukraine is not going to be able to hold the territory for long.
The craziest part is that I think CNN is reporting that accurately! That really is what a bunch of idiots in the Pentagon and the NSC actually think.
There have been so many things in this war that just make me so skeptical of our own ability to wage war, because the Pentagon is chock-full of total imbeciles. But then, I calm down when I remember that our enemies are led by even bigger idiots.
UPDATE: The article now says that Russia is pulling multiple brigades away from attacking Ukraine to help defend Kursk. It's going to be too little, too late.
The article reaffirms that Russia is still not treating the incursion seriously. They are still dedicated to the fantasy that a few more half-trained, 18-year-old kids thrown together under a dodgy command structure overseen by the FSB are going to be able to stop Ukraine's elite brigades equipped with NATO equipment.
And then the article turns right around and quotes "multiple US sources familiar with the intelligence" saying that Ukraine is not going to be able to hold the territory for long.
The craziest part is that I think CNN is reporting that accurately! That really is what a bunch of idiots in the Pentagon and the NSC actually think.
There have been so many things in this war that just make me so skeptical of our own ability to wage war, because the Pentagon is chock-full of total imbeciles. But then, I calm down when I remember that our enemies are led by even bigger idiots.
UPDATE: The article now says that Russia is pulling multiple brigades away from attacking Ukraine to help defend Kursk. It's going to be too little, too late.
This post was edited on 8/15/24 at 8:17 pm
Posted on 8/15/24 at 8:16 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Zero reports of citizens picking up arms to fight the invaders like Ukraine had en masse. St. Petersburg and Moscow could care less unless their lives are impacted directly.
more running away and bitching about it... but I dunno, dude could've been wrong. To clarify, he wasn't saying it was some big national uniting thing... just that it made them feel vulnerable and drove home that things impact them, too. As for St. Petersberg and Moscow... I can't say I'm equipped to understand those people, really...
Posted on 8/15/24 at 8:20 pm to CitizenK
I’m probably projecting a bit but this is my home. I love my country, my state and my city. I have a palmetto state armory semi-auto and 500 rounds of 5.56.
I’d probably get murked, but I’d take one with me.
I’d probably get murked, but I’d take one with me.
Posted on 8/15/24 at 8:21 pm to Jim Rockford
After watching that I thought about asking when Andrey Vladimirovich's base jump attempt from the 5th floor was scheduled for but then I remembered Viktor Olevich (guy in the beige T and blue sport coat) has somehow lived for 2.5 year speaking truth.
I keep waiting for Vlad Solovyov to lose his mind on TV about the counter-invasion but it hasn't fully happened yet. I want to see him flip out so bad they cut the the weatherman to calm him down.
I have watched so much Russian State TV in the last 900 days, and there are times I begin to think I can understand Russian. I do know when ole Vlad Solo and Margarita are losing their shite though. I gotta say Marg is a bad bitch I would not be surprised if she has dropped more people than the average D-Boy operator.
I keep waiting for Vlad Solovyov to lose his mind on TV about the counter-invasion but it hasn't fully happened yet. I want to see him flip out so bad they cut the the weatherman to calm him down.
I have watched so much Russian State TV in the last 900 days, and there are times I begin to think I can understand Russian. I do know when ole Vlad Solo and Margarita are losing their shite though. I gotta say Marg is a bad bitch I would not be surprised if she has dropped more people than the average D-Boy operator.
Posted on 8/15/24 at 8:29 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
guy in the beige T and blue sport coat)
These guys must have gotten their fashion sense from binge watching pirated Sopranos episodes.
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