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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 8/15/24 at 3:28 pm to
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15665 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 3:28 pm to
FTR, I like Dom Nicholls take on things complete with tongue in cheek humor.

LINK
This post was edited on 8/15/24 at 3:40 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15665 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 3:38 pm to
Reportedly at Lgov UKR helos flying in formation.

LINK
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14806 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 3:47 pm to
quote:

Reportedly at Lgov UKR helos flying in formation.



Lgov is a town located on the E38 between Rylsk and Kursk.

This would be a major LOC cut, and you would only do this if you planned after landed air assault forces to secure ahead of drive with stronger ground forces to hold the area.

and that is 20 mi NE of Korenevo where there was supposedly still fighting,
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15665 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

and that is 20 mi NE of Korenevo where there was supposedly still fighting,


Other reports of UKR roaming almost at will behind Russian lines. No clear comms between FSB, Rosguard and Chechens in the area. Lots division still which brings lots of confusion among Russian "forces"
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 3:59 pm to
I don't think that video is legit; it almost looks like video game footage. Also, would they be flying that slow that high? In all of the videos of helicopters that have emerged during this war, they are flying fast and nape of the earth.
This post was edited on 8/15/24 at 4:00 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15665 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:01 pm to
quote:

I don't think that video is legit;


USAF Col, retired reposted it

Reports of Russia shelling this area early today as well
This post was edited on 8/15/24 at 4:04 pm
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42603 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:02 pm to
Remember how Wagner operated inside of Russia almost at will? Well on the surface it appears that Ukraine is doing the same thing.
Now we know how Wagner was stopped, but I don’t think the Ukes will be as nice as Wagner was.

The Ukes need to be smart though. They need to impact Russian infrastructure and logistics as much as they can and not get trapped.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Early reports were that there were about 1,000 Ukrainians in the raid, but it turns out that it is more like 15,000. Big surprise for Putin's minions.

This might shed light on some of the reason Putin was rather slow to respond to this "raid."


I have read that it actually started with 2000 the first day, and many more were flooded in after the initial success of breaking the lines.

If the first day had failed, it would have been a failure with 2,000 troops.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:19 pm to
quote:

Korenevo where there was supposedly still fighting,


I think Ukraine took Korenevo today. There have been several pro-Ukrainian posts saying that they have great news from the Kursk region but can't share it yet.

There's no proof yet, of course. I'm just spreading a rumor, but I think it happened.
This post was edited on 8/15/24 at 4:20 pm
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138766 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

It looks like it might be more sustainable than I thought initially.
+1

I'd agree

Notwithstanding what is likely to be a rough outcome in the end.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45549 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:33 pm to
quote:

There are many videos of himars being hit over the past 6-8 months


I could post a CGI video of me kissing Taylor Swift but that doesn’t mean that I actually kissed Taylor Swift.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45549 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:35 pm to
quote:

The Biden administration is “open” to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, a move that would give Kyiv’s F-16s greater combat punch as it seeks to gain further momentum in its fight against Russia. The White House’s willingness to give Ukraine the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile comes as Kyiv’s surprisingly successful ground assault deep inside Russia heads into its second week, embarrassing Vladimir Putin and forcing him to redirect troops from the battlefield in Ukraine.


1. Ok so that means they will be available to use this time next year. The Biden administration always drags its feet.

2. The Biden-Harris administration won’t actually let Ukraine use them against Russia.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13309 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:49 pm to
quote:

likely to be a rough outcome in the end.


How do you see this ending? And when?
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:51 pm to
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 4:54 pm to
quote:


2. The Biden-Harris administration won’t actually let Ukraine use them against Russia.


Maybe not, but remember that Crimea is not Russia. I really think that once Ukraine gets enough f-16s, if they're properly equipped, then Crimea is gettable for Ukraine.
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 5:04 pm to
There's a really clear video of one getting smoked in Sumy yesterday. What if it was a cgi video of you kissing Ru Paul
..would that be real?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138766 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

How do you see this ending? And when?
Depends on November.

If Harris wins, I'd give 80% odds the thing doesn't end while she's in office, with 5% odds the world enters mutually assured destruction.

If Trump wins, my guess is the war concludes quickly in negotiated settlement within a month of his inauguration if not before.

The settlement?
As long as Ukraine holds up for the next few months, I'd expect the settlement to roughly resemble the April 2022 drafts.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13309 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 5:16 pm to
quote:

expect the settlement to roughly resemble the April 2022 drafts.


What were the bullet points of the April 2022 drafts?
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
26468 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 5:30 pm to
quote:

Depends on November.

If Harris wins, I'd give 80% odds the thing doesn't end while she's in office, with 5% odds the world enters mutually assured destruction.

If Trump wins, my guess is the war concludes quickly in negotiated settlement within a month of his inauguration if not before.


My prediction is that Trump will offer Putin a carrot or a very big stick. I don't think Putin will go for the carrot.

Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 5:32 pm to
quote:

I could post a CGI video of me kissing Taylor Swift but that doesn’t mean that I actually kissed Taylor Swift.


Why would you want to kiss that shitlib?

It might be catching.
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