- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:03 am to WeeWee
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:03 am to WeeWee
quote:
Russian soldiers and tanks hauling arse and heading east as they cross the Ukrainian and Russian borders.
if past Russian "strategic fallbacks" are any indications, then you would see "Russian soldiers in civilian clothes, riding in civilian vehicles hauling arse and heading east as they cross the Ukrainian and Russian borders"
0
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:09 am to WeeWee
quote:Lead poisoning is much more aggressive and how this may evolve, unfortunately with no successor, that is scary as well.
That embarrassment plus the collapse of the Russian economy will cause Putin to succumb to complications from thyroid cancer.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:09 am to WeeWee
quote:
Russian soldiers and tanks hauling arse and heading east as they cross the Ukrainian and Russian borders.
sorry i kept bringing it up, its just its hard as an american to imagine the changes a win on either side brings and right now its just hard to see a win either way
i think in the end there is some kind of peace treaty signed and i think it comes either by putin dead or russia's economy collapsing
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:10 am to Tigeralum2008
quote:
Best way to counter that threat is to have Poland line forces up at the border and subtly talk about a Northern invasion being an escalation that might require a response. If Russia wants Ukraine to stay out of Nato for a buffer zone, Poland can say the same thing about Ukraine being a buffer from Russia
Simple, yet straightforward. The constant rhetoric should be that Russia is causing the tensions, and any encroachment into Ukraine amounts to Russia removing the buffer zone.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:24 am to lsu777
There are a lot of possible scenarios as I see it:
1) Ukraine drives Russia out of Ukraine proper and regains Crimea - Unlikely
2) Ukraine drives Russia out of Ukraine proper but doesn't regain Crimea
3) Ukraine forces Russia back to the lines as they existed on Feb 23rd, 2022
4) Ukraine agrees to the current lines
5) Russia mounts a spring offensive and takes the whole of the Donbas region. Ukraine settles.
6) Russia mounts a major spring offensive and gains significant territory forcing Ukraine to ask for a cease-fire
7) Russia takes all of Ukraine
Obviously, there are variations to all of these scenarios including the deployment of tactical nukes (I think this is unlikely except in the defense of Crimea). I believe the spring offensives after the ground hardens will be the climax of the war. It is going to be brutal.
In all the scenarios where Ukraine forces Russia back and to the negotiating table, Ukraine will be left with areas of their country totally destroyed. It will take decades for them to fully recover.
No matter what scenario happens, Russia finishes this war with its military in ruins. Their economy is damaged, and their place in the world order is reduced for decades, it will be a pyrrhic victory. There is no win in this war for Russia that I can see.
1) Ukraine drives Russia out of Ukraine proper and regains Crimea - Unlikely
2) Ukraine drives Russia out of Ukraine proper but doesn't regain Crimea
3) Ukraine forces Russia back to the lines as they existed on Feb 23rd, 2022
4) Ukraine agrees to the current lines
5) Russia mounts a spring offensive and takes the whole of the Donbas region. Ukraine settles.
6) Russia mounts a major spring offensive and gains significant territory forcing Ukraine to ask for a cease-fire
7) Russia takes all of Ukraine
Obviously, there are variations to all of these scenarios including the deployment of tactical nukes (I think this is unlikely except in the defense of Crimea). I believe the spring offensives after the ground hardens will be the climax of the war. It is going to be brutal.
In all the scenarios where Ukraine forces Russia back and to the negotiating table, Ukraine will be left with areas of their country totally destroyed. It will take decades for them to fully recover.
No matter what scenario happens, Russia finishes this war with its military in ruins. Their economy is damaged, and their place in the world order is reduced for decades, it will be a pyrrhic victory. There is no win in this war for Russia that I can see.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:36 am to Chromdome35
quote:
No matter what scenario happens, Russia finishes this war with its military in ruins. Their economy is damaged, and their place in the world order is reduced for decades, it will be a pyrrhic victory. There is no win in this war for Russia that I can see.
agree and even if #1 happens....there is no win in the war for urkaine either.
like you said, no matter what happens...ukraine is in ruins
russia's military, economy and standing in the world...ruined
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:38 am to lsu777
quote:
seriously what does this look like?
Here's an interview from four days ago with retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who commanded U.S. Army forces in Europe from 2014 and 2017:
LINK
Not long after the invasion, when many "experts" were still confident of Russian victory, Hodges predicted that Ukraine would win the war by the end of 2022. As he explains, he ended up being over-optimistic because he thought that NATO weapons deliveries would have happened faster, especially ATACMS.
Gen. Hodges now predicts that Ukraine will take Crimea and win the war by the end of August of this year.
I personally believe that Ukraine will get ATACMS by March, in time for the upcoming spring offensive. They only need two or three dozen to make a critical difference in the South. Ukraine will use them to hit the Kerch bridges, the ferries that run the Kerch Strait, the key railroad junctions, Russian bases in Crimea, any submarines or ships docked at those bases, any ship that docks in Berdyansk, and some key road bridges coming from Mariupol.
All of that will completely isolate Russian forces in Southern Ukraine. Ukraine will then use all this shiny new Western equipment to break the Russian line somewhere (it's a really long line, and there are many places this could happen) and drive to the sea, cutting Russian forces completely in two and collapsing the rest of the Russian lines, with the result that vast numbers of Russian tanks and heavy weapons are taken or captured.
I honestly see that happening by the end of April. After that, Ukraine has the clear initiative, and Russian forces will be in disarray -- they are not a disciplined force. That's why Hodges still sees Ukraine with a complete victory by the end of August.
I'm not personally any kind of military expert, but I can obviously read stuff from Gen. Hodges and others who clearly are.
This post was edited on 1/18/23 at 11:44 am
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:41 am to GOP_Tiger
I hope that is what happens but I'm skeptical because I think Russia will use nukes to defend Crimea.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:45 am to GOP_Tiger
Ukraine has to go on the offensive somewhere, otherwise Russia just grinds them down. I was expecting a winter offensive when the ground froze and I'm a little concerned it hasn't happened yet.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:47 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Gen. Hodges now predicts that Ukraine will take Crimea and win the war by the end of August of this year.
This seems quite optimistic to me...
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:53 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I hope that is what happens but I'm skeptical because I think Russia will use nukes to defend Crimea.
I think that the status of Crimea and the Russian-occupied cities of Luhansk and Donetsk is subject to negotiation. But I find it difficult to imagine that, by the end of this year, Ukraine will not recover the territory that Russia captured in 2022.
Ukraine's military is constantly getting so much stronger, and Russia is constantly pulling more ancient Soviet equipment out of storage in response.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:54 am to WeeWee
quote:
Russia ended 2022 with a 3,900,000,000 RUB budget deficit.
To be fair, that's like 50 or 60 million USD. It amounts to the seizure of one very, very low hanging oligarch.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:56 am to Jim Rockford
I was surprised when Ukraine didn't follow up on any of its gains in the east. I think the reality is that Ukraine probably doesn't have enough troops or equipment to build the necessary combat power for a sustained offensive. The best they can hope for is to make a breakthrough, push the Russians back, and then stop to reconsolidate and rearm.
When the Russians were in disarray after the 2nd eastern offensive, or the Kherson advance, would have been the prime time to punch hard towards Melitopol, but alas they didn't...why? Because they simply don't have that much combat power.
When the Russians were in disarray after the 2nd eastern offensive, or the Kherson advance, would have been the prime time to punch hard towards Melitopol, but alas they didn't...why? Because they simply don't have that much combat power.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 11:59 am to GOP_Tiger
Sweden appears to be preparing its Ramstein gift. There's a key government meeting tomorrow, and this is on the agenda.
quote:
Task to the armed forces to transfer Archer to Ukraine.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 12:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I personally believe that Ukraine will get ATACMS by March, in time for the upcoming spring offensive. They only need two or three dozen to make a critical difference in the South. Ukraine will use them to hit the Kerch bridges, the ferries that run the Kerch Strait, the key railroad junctions, Russian bases in Crimea, any submarines or ships docked at those bases, any ship that docks in Berdyansk, and some key road bridges coming from Mariupol.
agree with this but not sure of it being in the field by march. thats really aggressive timeline
quote:
Gen. Hodges now predicts that Ukraine will take Crimea and win the war by the end of August of this year.
no chance in hell. not even under the best circumstances
quote:
All of that will completely isolate Russian forces in Southern Ukraine. Ukraine will then use all this shiny new Western equipment to break the Russian line somewhere (it's a really long line, and there are many places this could happen) and drive to the sea, cutting Russian forces completely in two and collapsing the rest of the Russian lines, with the result that vast numbers of Russian tanks and heavy weapons are taken or captured.
agree
quote:
I honestly see that happening by the end of April. After that, Ukraine has the clear initiative, and Russian forces will be in disarray -- they are not a disciplined force. That's why Hodges still sees Ukraine with a complete victory by the end of August.
no way, more like end of august at best and victory by the end of the year at best
quote:
I hope that is what happens but I'm skeptical because I think Russia will use nukes to defend Crimea.
i am almost 100% sure they will. I dont beleive they have a lot of them that actually work like they claim, but they do have some and I am about 99% sure they will use them in defense of crimea. not sure it will be enough though
quote:
I think that the status of Crimea and the Russian-occupied cities of Luhansk and Donetsk is subject to negotiation. But I find it difficult to imagine that, by the end of this year, Ukraine will not recover the territory that Russia captured in 2022.
Ukraine's military is constantly getting so much stronger, and Russia is constantly pulling more ancient Soviet equipment out of storage in response.
i agree to an extent....i think we get a peace treaty before it gets to a fight for crimea and crimea is formally and forever given to russia and maybe small parts of the donbas etc before russia uses tact nukes.
the issue really becomes though that Putin has backed himself into a real corner and is almost a caged animal and im not sure he has the politcal ability to give any kind of concessions.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 12:13 pm to Chromdome35
R E Lee had the same issues early on in the Civil War. He’d win a big battle, but he didn’t have the reserves or the resources to follow up and take advantage of the big win.
And when he lost, he was devastated and had to retreat and rebuild and even then it got to the point where he couldn’t compete.
And when he lost, he was devastated and had to retreat and rebuild and even then it got to the point where he couldn’t compete.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 12:54 pm to klrstix
quote:WSJ
On Tuesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu provided a timetable for the troop increase the Kremlin outlined in December following a string of setbacks on the battlefield and criticism from Russian nationalists. The country’s army will increase to 1.5 million military personnel between 2023 and 2026—compared with its current level of 1.15 million and one million at the start of 2022, Mr. Shoigu said, according to state newswire TASS.
Russia has pushed its military buildup back by 18 months. I wonder if this is a result of Russia realizing it can’t fulfill Putin’s demands in time, or if it’s a sign that Russia is hoping to get Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and it will try again in 2026.
This post was edited on 1/18/23 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 1/18/23 at 12:59 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
1) Ukraine drives Russia out of Ukraine proper and regains Crimea - Unlikely 2) Ukraine drives Russia out of Ukraine proper but doesn't regain Crimea 3) Ukraine forces Russia back to the lines as they existed on Feb 23rd, 2022 4) Ukraine agrees to the current lines 5) Russia mounts a spring offensive and takes the whole of the Donbas region. Ukraine settles. 6) Russia mounts a major spring offensive and gains significant territory forcing Ukraine to ask for a cease-fire 7) Russia takes all of Ukraine
I think that scenario 3 is the most likely. That would be a significant victory for Ukraine and a major failure for Russia. Ukraine would have the upper hand in negotiations especially if the west continues to supply Ukraine with NATO standard equipment during the peace talks. It’s also not that far from a reality. Ukrainian forces are less than 100 kilometers from pre-invasion line of demarcation.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 1:11 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Russia has pushed its military buildup back by 18 months. I wonder if this is a result of Russia realizing it can’t fulfill Putin’s demands in time, or if it’s a sign that Russia is hoping to get Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and it will try again in 2026.
Whatever Russia says it is doing or will do is typically not what it is actually doing or planning. I expect a massive mobilization in 2023. If its military holds to the same size as announced, that will mean that an additional 200k or more are dead on the front lines.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 1:17 pm to TigerFanatic99
He missed a few 0's, it's RU$3,900,000,000,000.
Reuters
Still "only" US$55,380,000,000 but it is about 2.6% of their nominal 2022 GDP of US$2,133,092,000,000.
Realistically the cost of sanctions and the war will start showing more readily this year as it becomes harder to fudge the figures.
They only have about $551,000,000,000 in non gold foreign reserves, though how much of this is frozen I am unsure.
Lost European exports alone account for about US$252,358,000,000 (Just under 12% of above GDP) so I would highly expect any ability to prop things up with their reserves has run out.
Wikipedia
It also begs the question on how the claimed military reforms will happen by 2025 without any money in the bank and any short term way of funds generation will further damage their economy.
Sure they could start seizing remaining Oligarch assets to keep floating things but historically pissing off your enabling "nobility" doesn't play well as you generally find yourself on the wrong side of sharp blades or open 3rd story windows.
Edit for blind links, apologies
Reuters
Still "only" US$55,380,000,000 but it is about 2.6% of their nominal 2022 GDP of US$2,133,092,000,000.
Realistically the cost of sanctions and the war will start showing more readily this year as it becomes harder to fudge the figures.
They only have about $551,000,000,000 in non gold foreign reserves, though how much of this is frozen I am unsure.
Lost European exports alone account for about US$252,358,000,000 (Just under 12% of above GDP) so I would highly expect any ability to prop things up with their reserves has run out.
Wikipedia
It also begs the question on how the claimed military reforms will happen by 2025 without any money in the bank and any short term way of funds generation will further damage their economy.
Sure they could start seizing remaining Oligarch assets to keep floating things but historically pissing off your enabling "nobility" doesn't play well as you generally find yourself on the wrong side of sharp blades or open 3rd story windows.
Edit for blind links, apologies
This post was edited on 1/18/23 at 1:19 pm
Page 2319 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News