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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
I'm starting to get truly concerned, we aren't that far away from some ugly numbers and I don't see anything slowing down at this point. The math on the growth rate is very straightforward and is perfectly described by the "Give me 1 cent the first day, 2 the next, 4 the third and on the 30th day...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. [link=(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17R0Z5T063iqskP--0VXYtbnJqtkhU8RJ-5jL5_V1OZM/edit#gid=679997437)]Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker[/link] The source for the data is [link=(https://www.worldometers.info/co...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
I agree Bass, the weekend numbers seem to get a little screwy, interested to see if that is true this week....
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Serious question to those who feel this is being overblown - Chromdome35
If you are in the group of people who thinks this is being overblown and it is no worse than the flu, what threshold has to be crossed for you to change your mind? I'm seriously interested in hearing legitimate answers. If more people die from this than a bad flu season would that change your ...
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re: Italy CV numbers just updated - another 969 deaths - Chromdome35
I would, how much?...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. [link=(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17R0Z5T063iqskP--0VXYtbnJqtkhU8RJ-5jL5_V1OZM/edit#gid=679997437)]Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker[/link] The source for the data is [link=(https://www.worldometers.info/co...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
You double posted one of those. I love that site, I subscribed to it after you started posting stuff from it....
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
Powerman, You can find the model on the "Predictive Model as of 3/24/20" tab in my tracker which you can access here. [link=(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17R0Z5T063iqskP--0VXYtbnJqtkhU8RJ-5jL5_V1OZM/edit?pli=1#gid=864157221)]https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17R0Z5T063iqskP--0VX...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. [link=(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17R0Z5T063iqskP--0VXYtbnJqtkhU8RJ-5jL5_V1OZM/edit#gid=679997437)]Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker[/link] The source for the data is [link=(https://www.worldometers.info/co...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
It has been going up and down for a couple of hours, probably getting hammered with traffic....
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
The death rate is based on the number of deaths / number of cases to date. So far that works out to 1.48% to date. So if we have 100K deaths we should have 1,480 deaths, pretty simple math. Now we know the number of cases is WAY undercounted at the moment, so the actual mortality rate is lowe...
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re: Italy CV numbers just updated - another 969 deaths - Chromdome35
As I'm sure you will as well if you are wrong???...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
Yea...you are right. Like I said this model is simple. I have to adjust it every few days for the growth and mortality rates. The Predicted deaths for the day are calculated by taking the predicted cases for the day (107K) and applying the Mortality rate of (1.43%) in the model, it's pretty bas...
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re: Italy CV numbers just updated - another 969 deaths - Chromdome35
Just an FYI, at the current growth rate, we're about 5 days away from 900 deaths a day. So I guess it depends on the definition of close....
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
Augie, also check out the predictive model tab. It's a simple model, but it's doing fairly good at predicting the # of cases. Yesterday it was 99.4% accurate on # cases and 94.6% accurate on deaths. It says that at the end of today we should have 107K cases and 1,539 Deaths. ...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
Check this out, It was linked on Drudge. This shows the movement of the cell phones from the spring breakers on one beach in Ft. Lauderdale after they left. Very interesting [link=(https://twitter.com/MikaelThalen/status/1243281598037913600)]https://twitter.com/MikaelThalen/status/124328159...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
Augie, In my linked sheet, there is a tab called weighted averages. On there I show a 3 and 7 day weighted average of the growth rate in cases and deaths. The graphs show the declines you are talking about. Cases [img]https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRxUVG24AQHh5nvoR-tcz8kRu22...
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 9:18 PM CST 3/27/20 Final Numbers for the day - Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. [link=(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17R0Z5T063iqskP--0VXYtbnJqtkhU8RJ-5jL5_V1OZM/edit#gid=679997437)]Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker[/link] The source for the data is [link=(https://www.worldometers.info/co...
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