re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The problem with Crimea is that Ukraine now understands perfectly well how important Crimea is to its security. No peace deal that leaves Russia in control of Crimea will be acceptable to Ukraine.

About the best that Russia could hope for would be a deal where Crimea is given independence or something like that.

And, by the way, if Putin uses a nuclear weapon? He loses, because India, the Arab states, Africa, South America, and SE Asia all seize Russian assets and impose an economic blockade. China goes along with those restrictions, because the alternative is an economic war with Europe and the US. This causes instantaneous economic collapse in Russia, and a palace coup in Moscow removes Putin from power.

Personally, I think it very unlikely that Crimea stays in Russian hands. The only way that would happen is if Ukraine miscalculates and spectacularly fails in its offensives this year. If the war were to degenerate into a true stalemate, then both sides would be ready to negotiate.

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maybe i am wrong, i just dont see it. hopefully i am wrong

still think russia uses nukes to protect crimea

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Whatever Russia says it is doing or will do is typically not what it is actually doing or planning. I expect a massive mobilization in 2023. If its military holds to the same size as announced, that will mean that an additional 200k or more are dead on the front lines.

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I have acquaintances in both Moscow and St Petersburg and they are worried about another round of mobilization. They say that the last one avoided the major urban areas except for the jails and those arrested in protests. It also didn’t affect the highly educated. They are saying that the next mobilization will include the urban areas and the educated. They are expecting it to be larger than last year’s too. They have also told me that they are wondering how Putin will keep the Russian economy going while transitioning it to a wartime economy at same time if they start filling the military ranks with the educated. They might be able to replace a miner or laborer with forced labor from prisons and importing more North Koreans to work in labor camps, but prisoners and North Koreans are not going to be able to take the place if international businessmen. I know of one Russian whose an international businessman who has the equivalent of a mastere degree and works in Moscow and Dubai. One of the military officers who is in charge of mobilization has told him that his name is on the list for the next round. He is 38 and out of shape with a wife and 2 kids. He has been able to travel back and forth between Russia and Dubai because he has special permission due to his work. He has moved his whole family to Dubai and is refusing to go back.

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I see where Urals is back to around $50 but as told to me by a Russian CEO at lunch in 2015, breakeven was $50 for Siberian crudes. Goldman, aka Spengler, has stated $34 but I think like everything Russian his info is really bad. I used buy what he was selling but his info has been really wrong about Huawei and other things China.

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So that means Russia is making between $0-$16 per barrel instead of $30-$46 per barrel. Eventually that lost money is going to be too big for Russia to cover with accounting tricks and it’s not going to have money to pay its bills. I wonder if China will keep selling Russia computer chips, tires, etc when Russia’s checks start bouncing?

LINK

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The U.S. is gearing up to announce a major new weapons package for Ukraine on Friday, as top military leaders from around the world gather in Germany to discuss how to help Kyiv in its fight against Russia, according to three U.S. officials and another person familiar with the discussions.

While the next tranche will include additional artillery, ammunition and armor — likely Stryker armored combat vehicles — the U.S. is not expected to sign off on American M1 Abrams tanks, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks ahead of an announcement.

The package will likely include a number of Strykers, an eight-wheeled armored fighting vehicle built by General Dynamics Land Systems, as well as ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of roughly 100 miles, two of the people said. POLITICO first reported last week that the Pentagon was considering sending Strykers in the upcoming tranche of aid. Reuters first reported that Boeing-made Small Diameter Bombs were under discussion.

This package will not include the long-range Army Tactical Missile System that can reach Moscow, according to two of the people.

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Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs have a 93-mile range and will allow Ukraine to hit targets well beyond what they can currently hit with HIMARS, and with a bigger warhead. All the Russian ammo depots that they have built just out of HIMARS range? They are all vulnerable now. Russian logistics is going to massively struggle to supply troops at the front lines.

GLSDB is supposedly accurate to within a meter. From Wikipedia:

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In a 2017 demonstration, the GLSDB engaged a moving target at a distance of 62 mi (100 km). The SDB and rocket motor separated at altitude and the bomb used an SAL seeker to track and engage the target.[7] A 2019 test extended this range to 81 mi (130 km) against a target at sea.[8]

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Edit: I should add that I don't think that Boeing has GLSDB ready. I think it will be 2-3 months before these can actually be sent.

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The main point of this Ramstein conference was to organize Leopard 2 deliveries to Ukraine.

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Among other things. And remember the conference is the 20th.

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Among other things. And remember the conference is the 20th

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This is just the power struggle before the meeting. Germany is trying to placate their base that they are fighting “escalation”. They will extract something from the US and then “come around” to allowing leopards.

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This is just the power struggle before the meeting.

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Sure, posturing.

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They will extract something from the US and then “come around” to allowing leopards.

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A nice compromise would be Germany wont send any Leopards but wont prevent buyers of Leopards from sending theirs.

New York Times: US warms to helping Ukraine regain Crimea
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 19, 2023 1:19 am

Following discussions with Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration has come around to the idea that Ukraine may need the military equipment to strike Russian-occupied Crimea, regardless of the risks such a move entails, the New York Times reported, citing several unnamed U.S. officials. 

Russia invaded and occupied Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in February 2014 during the EuroMaidan Revolution that ousted pro-Russian ex-President Viktor Yanukovych. The peninsula houses Russia's Black Sea Fleet and tens of thousands of Russian troops. 

Amid Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to retake the peninsula. Ukraine has also targeted Russian air and military bases in Crimea in order to hamper Russia's war effort. 

According to the officials, the Biden administration now believes that if the Ukrainian military has what it needs to threaten Russia's occupation of Crimea, Ukraine's future negotiating position will be stronger, the New York Times reported. 

I’m firmly in support of Ukraine kicking the shite out of Putin but I just don’t see a realistic picture where they can take Crimea. Literally everything would have to go right for them and even still it would be a very tall order.