re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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All Russia has to do is threaten the second front and that ties down a large portion of the Ukrainian army in the north.


Correct

Ukraine has to consider Belarus a threat. The key is diagnosing the situation through intelligence.

Could Russia sneak 100s of thousands of soldiers and equipment into Belarus? I doubt it.

But Ukraine had to plan ahead in case Russia does send divisions into Belarus. You are right about that.

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Best way to counter that threat is to have Poland line forces up at the border and subtly talk about a Northern invasion being an escalation that might require a response.

If Russia wants Ukraine to stay out of Nato for a buffer zone, Poland can say the same thing about Ukraine being a buffer from Russia

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Yes, Russia did quit in WWI. But keep in mind it took almost four years of fighting, almost two million dead soldiers, over a million and a half dead civilians, and a communist revolution before they finally quit.

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True but the Czar was much more of an institution that Putin is. The Czar was the head of the Orthodox church and religion was a much bigger factor in early 20th century Russia than it is in 21st century Russia. Also the Russian populace was much less educated and had less access to information that modern Russians do. Modern Russians especially the young can access the internet by using a VPN. So it will likely take less for Russians to revolt now than it did in WW1.

the freaking Poli board never ceases to amaze me....they post links to a RT propaganda piece where a ukrainian offical resigned because he claimed the apartment bombing was ukraines fault and they did it


google the quotes and you only get 4 or 5 hits and all go back to russian television articles

they fall for anything and literally can not think for themselves anymore. its sad

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If they are sending tanks, why aren’t they sending ATACMS. They already have the equipment, support and training to use this.

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It's coming, eventually. The Biden administration has said that they believe that they are successfully "boiling the frog.". In other words, they are escalating our arms deliveries gradually, in order not to give Putin a pretext to attack the US or NATO. The constant, ongoing destruction of Russia's conventional weapons in Ukraine means that the risk to NATO also continues to go down.

So, every time that you hear a US official say "Oh, we can't give such-and-such weapon, because we don't want to provoke the Kremlin," you need to understand that those denials are temporary.. We couldn't possibly give Ukraine HIMARS, until we did. It's the same story for Bradleys now.

Now, I personally think that this strategy is far too cautious, but I do understand the logic.

But ATACMS and F-16s will get to Ukraine eventually, if it doesn't defeat Russia soon.

In fact, the last time that the DoD was asked about ATACMS, the answer wasn't "No way," which is what it has been until now, but rather something like (my paraphrase, because I don't have time to find it now) "We are aware of Ukraine's need for longer range weapons and are in constant discussion with them about how we can best meet their needs."

Even Ukrainian foreign minister Kuleba said a month ago,

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“We fought for Patriot for more than a year, got them, and everyone is like Patriot, of course, it’s good, but what do we have there with tanks and ATACMS? When we get tanks and ATACMS, I think they will say this is good, but what about aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines when we get them?

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Now aircraft carriers and nuclear subs is obviously an exaggeration, but Kuleba's point is that the US and NATO are fully vested in Russia losing this war, and we will continue to escalate our weapons deliveries until Ukraine wins.

And he's right.

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my question is really what is the total end game for both countries?

Lets say russia secures the oblasts they have said is theirs....do they stop and try to reach a peace agreement? or do they carry on the fighting? How can they preach that Kviv is run by Nazis and Kviv is really russian etc and then stop at only the oblasts?

lets say ukraine drives russia from all ukrainian territory but crimea, do they come to an agreement?

what if they take all ukrainian territory....does russia suddenly just quit?

the longer this goes on...harder it is for me to see this stopping anytime soon so long as putin is in charge. I just dont see him giving up at any point or how he can politically.

i mean by end of the summer he is going to be at 200k dead minimum. he is going to announce full war today imo and another mobilization.....just how long can it go on?

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Russia's economy will eventually collapse. It has pissed off its main natural gas customer (Europe) which caused its natural gas exports to decrease by 46%. Russia is also selling oil at below market prices and close to their break even price. Russia ended 2022 with a 3,900,000,000 RUB budget deficit. Russia's budget deficit will continue to grow as it increases spending on the war and its energy exports are constrained. If Ukraine is able to drive Russia back to the pre-invasion borders or further it will a national embarrassment for Russia that it cannot cover up. That embarrassment plus the collapse of the Russian economy will cause Putin to succumb to complications from thyroid cancer.

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NATO needs to stay out of it. I don't know what some people are thinking.


Are you saying Poland can’t move about freely in their own country without permission from a Russian dictator? Is it 1939?

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Poland is free to aid Ukraine or attack Russia if they want. However, they better not try to invoke Article 5 when Russia attacks them in response. However, if Russia attacks Poland for moving troops inside its own borders then it's a different story.

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NATO needs to stay out of it. I don't know what some people are thinking.

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Poland isn’t NATO.

If they see Russian troops in large numbers in Belarus they will certainly ready their forces in self defense. That’s common sense.

A win for Russia means an eventual confrontation with NATO over Putin's next territorial ambition. A win for Ukraine entails a breakup of Russia. I don't see Russia not coming back again and again as long as it has the wherewithal to do so.

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Ukraine wins.


seriously what does this look like?

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Russian soldiers and tanks hauling arse and heading east as they cross the Ukrainian and Russian borders.