OutsideObserver

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Agreed, to me that has been the biggest eye opener of this conflict. Wars drive technological advancement and the rise of small drones on the battlefield have been the biggest technological advancement from this war.

It's redefining warfare. When this war started, the use of FPV drones was very limited and only then in reconnaissance roles. Now they are a major weapon that is creating all kinds of problems for defence planning.

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Aye, the changes will force current military powers to face a genuine hurdle to overcome in a time when their entrenched systems and platforms are prohibitively cost intensive against the backdrop of cheap options such as drones.

The follow on from there as seeing drones, and by extant the human element, as merely another cog in the machine is a throw back in some regards to WW1. The attrition style warfare seen over the last 2 or so years is for me due in part to the growing use of drones and how much they have impacted movement style warfare.

It also makes me think of the film "Toys" with Robin Williams and the human disconnect we are seeing currently in combat.

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Its crazy that it legitimately seems like this site attracted paid posters from Ukraine and Russia

Hey Ukes and Ruskis. frick both of you.

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If I could find a way to monetize posting on a random forum I sure wouldn't take 2 years off.

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Good to see you checking in

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Thanks, while I have not posted I have followed the threat relatively closely on a day to day basis ( thought admittedly in the last several months it has been weekly due to the garbage spam).

It has been interesting to see how the posting has changed over the last 2 or so years since I was a regular poster. Unfortunately it has become severely political as opposed to actually looking at the ebbs and flows of the war from a strategic sense.

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Or more like you forgot you had the wrong tab open. Two years of not posting at all, and suddenly here you are. Okay.....

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Bizarre as it may sound for those who live on TD, yes I had other things to attend to than post messages on a board I joined to examine a war in Europe.

Especially if you do your due diligence and look beyond the immediate source, it takes too much time.

Edit: Grammar

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Forgot to log out your alt?

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No.

Good thread from Tartarigami looking at the vehicle losses Russia has sustained around Avdiivka.

While in and of itself it is a small part of the overall war it is interesting to see Russia again expending significant resources to take a relatively small area over the winter months.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1735769036611281296

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They have painted Putin to be the devil for such a reason.

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Interesting choice of syntax.

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If that were to happen, I don’t think Ukraine could sustain the war for long. They’d be forced to sue for peace pretty quickly. Ukraine has the will, they have the bodies, what they lack is the hardware and the logistics to support the hardware.

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There has been a noticeable shift in Russian propaganda efforts, at least from what I have seen in recent months, with them taking aim at AFU morale through various surrender campaigns on a far greater scale.

This has coincided with a ramping up in the dissemination of footage claimed as strikes on AFU personnel doing evacs or clearing trenches, and deeper strikes on logistic networks.

This may be because Russia believes they have sufficiently muddied the water along with the current slow roll counter offensive that Ukraine has maintained so that Western support is slowing and they can now focus on Ukraine's will.

At the moment however I am looking at it from the opposite angle. With a worsening economy, Russia is struggling to keep things afloat in an increasing number of areas and they are facing a protracted conflict.

It is likely they will not have the capacity to maintain the levels of combat they have sustained thus far in the near future without significant internal pressures increasing so they are shifting to targeting Ukrainian will as it is the surest way to end the conflict sooner rather than later if successful which would go a long way to abating these pressures.

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Having just caught up on the ousting on McCarthy as speaker, what are your opinions on the effect this will have on the war in terms of U.S. commitment and its ability to send further aid in the short term?

Given that one of the main narratives for Russia is that a Biden led U.S. is using Ukraine to fight a proxy war it seems at odds that McCarthy who seemed relatively committed to helping Ukraine was ousted by the Democratic party plus some intransigent Republicans. - Not looking to make this political just interested in getting insight.

After seeing various claims of Ukraine stepping up operations around Verbove I have still not seen much regarding this from either side which is unusual - the side on the receiving end usually quickly refutes that it has been successful.


The only substantial thing I have found has been from Tartarigami which is uses satellite imagery to note how artillery fire appears to have shifted in that direction, indicating Ukraine has moved forward.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1707058241396408743

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Given recent talks in russian Telegram groups about supposed increased pressure from Ukrainian forces, I conducted a visual comparison of images taken on the 24th and 27th of September. Here, I noted distinctions and identified clear patterns.

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As you can see, a number of fresh scorch marks have emerged in recent days. It appears that new visible alterations have occurred to the east and southeast of Novoprokopivka. This aligns with recent reports of Ukrainian Forces activity in the vicinity of Novoprokopivka.

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Another important development is taking place in the Nove-Solodka Balka-Pshenychne triangle. Numerous recent marks in the region suggest that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have substantially intensified their pressure on more remote defenses.

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Scorch marks themselves don't confirm the presence or absence of troops; instead, they indicate areas affected by shelling or hostilities. September, being the driest period in the region, makes grass susceptible to catching fire.

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In summary, while occasional anomalies may arise in the imagery analysis, a clear trend shows fires shifting toward Ocheretuvate and Nove. However, this pattern only shows a progression of fires and should not be used as an indicator of territorial control or a breakthrough.

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Also it looks like Tatarigami is starting his own analysis group. While he is in AFU which means most of his efforts focus from the perspective, he has generally been fairly objective in reporting this information through the war. I will be interested to see what his new group does as it sounds like they are looking at conflicts in general rather than Ukraine specific (though this will of course still feature).

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1707419976406028356

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Ok. Just wondering if you would expound on exactly how you know which statements are lies and which are the truth.

For instance, you show the video of the Cmdr of the BSL that was published today as proof he is still alive. But how do you know that video is recent? Media reports? The same media reports that said he was dead, and others say he was alive. And you use the ones saying he was alive as proof that the ones saying he was dead are lies?

Remember when the Moskva sank and Russia immediately published video of the crew all lined up to get medals? And the Mothers group was saying: "The Navy is telling us our sons were all rescued, and showed us this video. But none of them are answering their cell phones...."

I mean, it sounds like you are just choosing to believe the ones you want to believe. Just like most other posters on here.

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Both sides (and those supporting them) have been guilty of false claims and incorrect statements and it isn't a situation that is going to change since it is part of any conflict. How pervasive disinformation has been in this conflict though is something that needs to be considered seriously by both society and the relevant institutions, the division it is creating is a necessary ingredient to undermine much of the progress made over much of the last century.

Traditional news media are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They are fighting to stay relevant in the age of social and digital media but have a legacy of fact checking to live up to. When they don't do this adequately they quickly get howled down (though in honesty they did create the trial by public opinion over the last several decades).

On the social media side fluidity of the war in terms of information access (despite being a slow grind for significant portions) is unprecedented and everyone races to get their story out first regardless of their motivations. Better OSINT communities for both sides make this somewhat easier by providing quick and adequate fact checking on some sectors of the conflict, usually strike locations, however these are not the easiest to find though unless you know where, or have the desire, to search for them. This puts much of the onus for fact checking on consumers rather than the institutions or reporters.

Problematically many consumers tune out the broader picture and patterns that emerge though to focus on the latest sound bite story. This can be due to information overload, time constraints, confirmation bias, or just not wanting to bother because they don't think it is relevant enough.