re: I'm going to make a wild prediction: We will not see self-driving 18-wheelers for 50 years

Self driving truck delivers from LA to Jacksonville

Look. I’m telling you guys. Lawyers en masse don’t waste their time on things that aren’t going to make them money.

And trust me...lawyers are spending a substantial amount of time preparing for this.

I think you'll see remote piloting and more a drone concept first. Drivers could drive in shorter shifts remotely and swap out until truck needs refulling with fuel.

How is this different than any other car?

quote:

---

Put markers down a boat launch and measure the depth of the water. That is a very controlled environment,

---

Many variables just at a boat launch. I won't go into all the other problems a driverless truck will face.
At a boat launch there can be high and low tides that vary, new potholes that will swallow your trailer tires, drop-offs that will yank your axles off when exiting, and dangerous cross currents at times. Launching a boat will for the foreseeable future require drivers.
Obviously you have never been to a busy boat launch in the early predawn hours. Best examples would be Venice or the Atchafalaya Basin or, Bayside Marina, etc. If you see what really goes on, and the lack of patience often involved, you wouldn't believe for one minute what you are espousing.
I won't even address the multitude of problems of the vehicle backing in by itself to allow me to put my boat back on the trailer.

quote:

---

No way companies will be willing to take on that responsibilities and if a few are there is no way insurance companies take on the risk.

---

there are 500,000 accidents a year involving 18 wheelers, 5,000 of which result in death.

Not a whole lot of downside risk

Let's see, Charles Lindbergh made the first trans Atlantic flight in 1927. 42 years later they landed on the moon.

Yeah, I'm guessing in 50 years, humans may not even be able to manually drive their own cars. You will more than likely speak to it like you speak to Alexa and just tell it where you want to go.

quote:

---

i concur. i was having this internal debate with myself last night when i was trying to fall asleep.

---

You're over thinking it.

To fall asleep, just have no thoughts in your mind. Don't think to yourself at all. Limit all mental chatter to 0 and just focus on your breath. Inhaling slowly, then exhaling slowly. Do this while not thinking any thoughts. Don't even try to think about not thinking about thinking about something.

If you are able to get to that point of no mental chatter, you will start to feel some vibrations at certain spots (or even overall) on your body. Just try and then focus in on those spots, all while not thinking. You may even hear a loud ringing noise in your ear. Focus in on this.

But yes, sleep will happen. Just need to clear your thoughts completely.

quote:

---

if you seriously think people won’t be allowed to drive in our lifetimes! Good luck to the robot truck to trailering my pontoon and backing it down the boat launch.

---

He covered this by saying you would just need an advanced license.

10 years from now most new cars will be capable of autonomous driving. Maybe 5 years. Eventually someone will create a 3rd party suite to give autonomous capability to any vehicle.

quote:

---

Many variables just at a boat launch. I won't go into all the other problems a driverless truck will face. At a boat launch there can be high and low tides that vary, new potholes that will swallow your trailer tires, drop-offs that will yank your axles off when exiting, and dangerous cross currents at times. Launching a boat will for the foreseeable future require drivers

---

The Navy is using automated carrier landing systems to land jets doing 150 MPH on a 300 foot pitching deck with varying wind speed and direction, and it is being done with technology that is already several years old. In comparison launching a boat with a pickup would be pretty simple.