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re: I'm going to make a wild prediction: We will not see self-driving 18-wheelers for 50 years
Posted on 1/23/19 at 2:54 pm to Mr Perfect
Posted on 1/23/19 at 2:54 pm to Mr Perfect
quote:
10 years max
Agreed. Especially on non-hazardous cargo. Oil, LPGs, gasoline, diesel, etc might be a bit longer.
0
Posted on 1/23/19 at 2:55 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
LSUdumbass
FIFY
Posted on 1/23/19 at 2:59 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
What gives you insight over all the major car manufacturers developing said technology?
The fact that there is not one driverless car on the road doing right now in the US, at least legally, and you expect to go from zero cars to many 18 wheelers in a spam of10 years?
Posted on 1/23/19 at 2:59 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
At least 50 years...it's not going to happen. No way companies will be willing to take on that responsibilities and if a few are there is no way insurance companies take on the risk. There is no way to program for every little scenario that might pop up out on the open road.
I heard a keynote speech by head of CEO Toyota USA the other week. He said the technology is here but its still too expensive to market self-driving vehicles. It would cost $140K to $150K on average today to manufacturer and sell. Further, Toyota at least doesn't see the demand in the near term for self-driving passenger vehicles and trucks and share riding isn't chipping away at demand like you might think.
His opinion is that AI in vehicles will be more in industrial type devices and medical (think wheelchairs) and will gradually work its way into vehicles in the form of more advanced safety features. Self driving passenger vehicles while technically possible is still a long way off.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:01 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
The fact that there is not one driverless car on the road doing right now in the US, at least legally, and you expect to go from zero cars to many 18 wheelers in a spam of10 years?
Yes because we have the technology, but not the economies of scale now.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:04 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
The fact that there is not one driverless car on the road doing right now in the US
Yea, you really have no clue what you're talking about.
quote:Maybe do the slightest bit of research
Headlines abound about self-driving cars, but there’s a big difference between reading about them and seeing one, replete with all its sensors, on the street. Or, for that matter, taking a ride in one. Uber is back on the road with its self-driving cars—scroll to the blurb on them below for the full update—but plenty of other outfits are making progress and running their cars in states like California, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:04 pm to 14&Counting
quote:
Self driving passenger vehicles while technically possible is still a long way off.
well yeah, but to say there is no way it's used in 50 years is hilarious
OP would have had a chance if his thread subject was centered around a ten year mark
This post was edited on 1/23/19 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:05 pm to LSUsmartass
It's 2019. It's time for self driving drones.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:07 pm to Ed Osteen
quote:
OP would have had a chance if his thread subject was centered around a ten year mark
No shite. Look at technological advancements we've made in the last 50 years, then realize that technology does not grow on a linear curve.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:07 pm to LNCHBOX
Uber doesn't count...isn't there still a human employee in the car?
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:08 pm to LSUsmartass
Lol you're nuts.
Computers have been doing shite more complex than driving a car or truck for decades.
I'd rather be on the road surrounded by self driving cars over the drunk, texting, internet surfing morons we are surrounded by now.
Do you know how long 50 years is?
Computers have been doing shite more complex than driving a car or truck for decades.
I'd rather be on the road surrounded by self driving cars over the drunk, texting, internet surfing morons we are surrounded by now.
Do you know how long 50 years is?
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:08 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
Uber doesn't count...
It's not a car?
quote:
.isn't there still a human employee in the car?
Nope
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:08 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
Uber doesn't count...isn't there still a human employee in the car?
Just take the L.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:10 pm to LSUsmartass
So wrong. You couldn't be more wrong. Self driving trucks are coming here much quicker than you can possibly imagine. The first wave will be long haul... highway type runs. Can self driving trucks be used in the city? That is much much much more difficult so this could be a long ways off.
Very soon going down I-10 E or W you will see them.
Very soon going down I-10 E or W you will see them.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:10 pm to LSUsmartass
You win the L of the day even beating oweo
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:11 pm to Ed Osteen
quote:
well yeah, but to say there is no way it's used in 50 years is hilarious
They are here now and they work. The technology works but its going to take a massive shift in consumer perception to make the economically feasible to produce on a mass scale. It's going to have to work its way into the market via other means such as industrial and medical applications. I think it will have a huge impact in industry in the medium term as opposed to being a consumer product people are willing to pay for. It will soon be in passenger vehicles/trucks in the form of better safety features.....i.e. you take a turn to quick and instead of crashing the vehicle self corrects. Or you are backing up and the vehicle stops before you hit something you didn't see.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:11 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:Let's see. 50 years, huh?
I'm going to make a wild prediction: We will not see self-driving 18-wheelers for 50 years
If we go back 50 years to 1969, what didn't we have . . .
Yeah, that would be a lot of shite that no one predicted.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:13 pm to theCrusher
quote:
USPS, FEDEX and UPS will be the first to implement.
beg to differ.
Usps will be last.
They use contractors for long haul as it is. They don't care how, as long as it is.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:15 pm to Mr Perfect
No there is no L...as of today we are closer to self driver trucks not happening then happening
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:15 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
No there is no L...as of today we are closer to self driver trucks not happening then happening
I've sat in several presentations that would beg to differ.
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