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re: I'm going to make a wild prediction: We will not see self-driving 18-wheelers for 50 years

Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:38 pm to
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82755 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:38 pm to
You're full of shite
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
31114 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:39 pm to
quote:

No, like my car from the 60s.

Sounds like i am going to have to go through an extensive process just to drive my own car


I would imagine there will be accommodations made with significant restrictions on what roads they can be driven on, just like you can't drive a horse and buggy on an interstate highway. They could also be required to meet certain criteria for high visibility based on the sensors of the autonomous vehicles.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
131654 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:39 pm to
quote:

So all of our classic cars are just going to sit there and rot?


People who can afford classic cars will likely be able to get the license to drive in limited settings.

quote:

Or what about all the people that cant afford the self driving cars?


By the time that the vast majority of people aren't even able to drive, self driving cars will have been ubiquitous for 20 years. 20 year old vehicles will have been self driving.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
131654 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:40 pm to
quote:

You're full of shite


K. They don't have CLEs all the time on this topic
Posted by MojoGuyPan
Intercession City, Florida
Member since Jun 2018
2797 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:40 pm to
quote:

There is no way to program for every little scenario that might pop up out on the open road.





What I don't get is why not start with self driving locomotives? Damn things are on rails. AI doesn't get any easier than that.




This post was edited on 1/23/19 at 4:43 pm
Posted by LSU fan 246
Member since Oct 2005
90567 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:41 pm to
quote:

People who can afford classic cars will likely be able to get the license to drive in limited settings.



Word.

Appreciate the non-cocksucker response
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:42 pm to
quote:


What I don't get is why not start with self driving locomotives? Damn things are on rails. AI doesn't get any easier than that.



Unions
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:42 pm to
quote:

I'll just say that I'm a lawyer

BURN HIM!
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
131654 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:43 pm to
I don’t disagree.

Lawyers are the fricking worst.
This post was edited on 1/23/19 at 4:44 pm
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82755 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:44 pm to
I simply stated a technology that has not hit the market, will not hit the market because the technology isn't there yet...you're speaking in absolutes and given multiple time frames of when various things will go into effect, as if you're reading a press release. You're making leaps and claims that frankly are not verifiable
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:45 pm to
quote:

You'd think we're debating health care law or assisted suicide

Ehh. At this point, I'd be willing to assist you. How do you want to do it?
This post was edited on 1/23/19 at 4:51 pm
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:46 pm to
quote:

I simply stated a technology that has not hit the market, will not hit the market because the technology isn't there yet...you're speaking in absolutes and given multiple time frames of when various things will go into effect, as if you're reading a press release. You're making leaps and claims that frankly are not verifiable



This is really funny considering you made a completely asinine claim with absolutely nothing to back it up other than its your opinion based in zero evidence
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
14616 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:46 pm to
50 years and you will probably lose that bet. But I agree with your overall sentiment. It will take a while. I’m thinking it will take 30+ years.

I could probably pull up threads from tigerdroppings as far back as 2011-2012 where people claimed self driving cars would be here in “10 years.” Well, it’s 2019 now and we aren’t even close.

It’s going to take much longer than most people think. And personal vehicle ownership will NEVER go away. At least not in our lifetimes..
Posted by cyarrr
Prairieville
Member since Jun 2017
4342 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:46 pm to
quote:

You're full of shite


He is either a troll or should change his sig name to LSUdumbass.
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82755 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:47 pm to
You know, I've been posting for 15 years and I've never heard that one
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
31114 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

You're making leaps and claims that frankly are not verifiable


Yet you are all in on even bigger leaps and claims.

The tech is too far along with too much money behind it to take 50 years to become reality. Just look at the timeline for any highly profitable tech once the basic science is known.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

I’m thinking it will take 30+ years.


Disagree

quote:

Well, it’s 2019 now and we aren’t even close.


Yes we are, it's more of a cost issue than technology issue at this point
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
131654 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:49 pm to
Youre right in saying it’s not verifiable.

The time frames are simply based on things I’ve heard based on thinking In the industry.

There’s no way to know the exact time frame. I don’t think it’ll be the technology holding the timeframe back but my end of the deal, ie the law.

But regardless, it’s coming man. There’s no doubt at all.
This post was edited on 1/23/19 at 5:12 pm
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82755 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:50 pm to
It's a big leap to say that something that has not happened yet may take longer than expected?
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82755 posts
Posted on 1/23/19 at 4:51 pm to
bullshite, it's very much a technology issue
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