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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:27 am to
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:27 am to
Here are the NHC Flood/Surge Maps for Tampa/St.Pete area

CAT 3



CAT 4

Posted by Le Tenia
Member since Feb 2015
4964 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:29 am to
quote:

You can't convince me this "parking" feature isn't the result of a changing climate.
.
GTFO, I’d like to change your climate
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6988 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:30 am to
quote:

I heard that impact point has changed from Tampa to Port Charlotte. Any truth to that? Pretty sure it was wxman


The models are tending ever so slightly to the south. While there will still be massive devastation, this is better news , especially if the trend continues.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21486 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:32 am to
quote:




Looks poised to make a run at CAT5 if it comes off Cuba clean.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178829 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:33 am to
It’s stupid how quick storms blow up now. It’s like they found a cheat code
Posted by Wally Sparks
Atlanta
Member since Feb 2013
32710 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:34 am to
quote:

Here are the NHC Flood/Surge Maps for Tampa/St.Pete area


Looks like all of the barrier islands are cooked.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
33461 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:35 am to
quote:

Looks poised to make a run at CAT5 if it comes off Cuba clean.



I was afraid of hearing that this morning.
Posted by Tigernation1290
Member since Aug 2022
130 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:37 am to
Minimum high end cat 4 at this point. Will most likely be a 5 at some point
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:40 am to
quote:

cat 4

What happened to the shear?
Posted by paperwasp
2x HRV 2025 Poster of the Year
Member since Sep 2014
29953 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:41 am to
quote:

Here are the NHC Flood/Surge Maps for Tampa/St.Pete area

Yikes
Posted by paperwasp
2x HRV 2025 Poster of the Year
Member since Sep 2014
29953 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:44 am to
quote:

Looks poised to make a run at CAT5 if it comes off Cuba clean

Still expected to weaken prior to landfall though, right?

Haven't looked since yesterday, but it appeared to be losing oceanic heat as it moved northeastward from there.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51685 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:44 am to
quote:

What happened to the shear?

It’s still expected to impact Ian, but that won’t happen until closer to landfall, after it reaches peak intensity.

NHC still has it as a Category 3, major hurricane at landfall, though.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 7:52 am
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
42410 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:44 am to
quote:

Still expected to weaken prior to landfall though, right?


Even if it does weaken if it got to CAT 5 it’s taking that surge with it.
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93585 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:48 am to
quote:

Still expected to weaken prior to landfall though, right?


Eh, not much according to NHC - Major hurricane at landfall. That said, I guess "weaken" is relative at this point.

I mean, if it ramps to a 5, and then "weakens" to a 4 or 3...I guess it still weakens, but it's horrible for Tampa.
Posted by WHATASHAME
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2009
717 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:50 am to
You should leave. Weathering a strong hurricane is a horrific experience, especially for young children…


Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93585 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:50 am to
quote:

Even if it does weaken if it got to CAT 5 it’s taking that surge with it.


Katrina...

A lot of people forget she was a 3 when she made landfall, but she had all that water with her.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21486 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:50 am to
quote:



Looks poised to make a run at CAT5 if it comes off Cuba clean.


One thing to watch for today is an ERC triggered by land interaction. That could keep things in check.
Posted by Tyga Woods
South Central Jupiter Island, FL
Member since Sep 2016
42251 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:52 am to
quote:

I just went to Home Depot and Walmart got a generator, an AC, Tarps, 5 more cases of water (must be up to 30 right now), batteries, filled up 3 gas cans. You would have thought it was a normal Tuesday morning. ETA: Oh and toilet paper was completely in stock


You forgot bread and milk.
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
42410 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:53 am to
That area of Cuba is getting the business right now
Posted by cable
Member since Oct 2018
9735 posts
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:56 am to
Dang - that looks healthy - it doesn't look like Cuba slowed it down at all
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