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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:27 am to AmosMosesAndTwins
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:27 am to AmosMosesAndTwins
Here are the NHC Flood/Surge Maps for Tampa/St.Pete area
CAT 3
CAT 4

CAT 3
CAT 4

Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:29 am to tarzana
quote:.
You can't convince me this "parking" feature isn't the result of a changing climate.
GTFO, I’d like to change your climate
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:30 am to Greace
quote:
I heard that impact point has changed from Tampa to Port Charlotte. Any truth to that? Pretty sure it was wxman
The models are tending ever so slightly to the south. While there will still be massive devastation, this is better news , especially if the trend continues.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:32 am to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
Looks poised to make a run at CAT5 if it comes off Cuba clean.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:33 am to rds dc
It’s stupid how quick storms blow up now. It’s like they found a cheat code
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:34 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Here are the NHC Flood/Surge Maps for Tampa/St.Pete area
Looks like all of the barrier islands are cooked.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:35 am to rds dc
quote:
Looks poised to make a run at CAT5 if it comes off Cuba clean.
I was afraid of hearing that this morning.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:37 am to Wally Sparks
Minimum high end cat 4 at this point. Will most likely be a 5 at some point
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:40 am to Tigernation1290
quote:
cat 4
What happened to the shear?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:41 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Here are the NHC Flood/Surge Maps for Tampa/St.Pete area
Yikes
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:44 am to rds dc
quote:
Looks poised to make a run at CAT5 if it comes off Cuba clean
Still expected to weaken prior to landfall though, right?
Haven't looked since yesterday, but it appeared to be losing oceanic heat as it moved northeastward from there.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:44 am to maisweh
quote:
What happened to the shear?
It’s still expected to impact Ian, but that won’t happen until closer to landfall, after it reaches peak intensity.
NHC still has it as a Category 3, major hurricane at landfall, though.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 7:52 am
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:44 am to paperwasp
quote:
Still expected to weaken prior to landfall though, right?
Even if it does weaken if it got to CAT 5 it’s taking that surge with it.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:48 am to paperwasp
quote:
Still expected to weaken prior to landfall though, right?
Eh, not much according to NHC - Major hurricane at landfall. That said, I guess "weaken" is relative at this point.
I mean, if it ramps to a 5, and then "weakens" to a 4 or 3...I guess it still weakens, but it's horrible for Tampa.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:50 am to ColoradoTiger1987
You should leave. Weathering a strong hurricane is a horrific experience, especially for young children…
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:50 am to BeeFense5
quote:
Even if it does weaken if it got to CAT 5 it’s taking that surge with it.
Katrina...
A lot of people forget she was a 3 when she made landfall, but she had all that water with her.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:50 am to rds dc
quote:
Looks poised to make a run at CAT5 if it comes off Cuba clean.
One thing to watch for today is an ERC triggered by land interaction. That could keep things in check.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:52 am to ColoradoTiger1987
quote:
I just went to Home Depot and Walmart got a generator, an AC, Tarps, 5 more cases of water (must be up to 30 right now), batteries, filled up 3 gas cans. You would have thought it was a normal Tuesday morning. ETA: Oh and toilet paper was completely in stock
You forgot bread and milk.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:53 am to rds dc
That area of Cuba is getting the business right now
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:56 am to rds dc
Dang - that looks healthy - it doesn't look like Cuba slowed it down at all
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