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re: How much do HCs improve...data inside
Posted on 11/30/16 at 11:30 pm to SportTiger1
Posted on 11/30/16 at 11:30 pm to SportTiger1
What can I do about it? Bitch? I know that football was finally fun again when Miles was fired.
Outside of Jimbo and Herman I'm not sure who would have been next in line. I think Miles proved recruiting is huge so I want a guy who knows the state and we won't suffer a class because the recruits don't know the HC or staff. Herman has taken most of his staff to Texas...would anyone really want to lose most of our staff?
I have been saying for years that Miles sucked as a coach. What better way to be proven right than to have O cone in and win?
Outside of Jimbo and Herman I'm not sure who would have been next in line. I think Miles proved recruiting is huge so I want a guy who knows the state and we won't suffer a class because the recruits don't know the HC or staff. Herman has taken most of his staff to Texas...would anyone really want to lose most of our staff?
I have been saying for years that Miles sucked as a coach. What better way to be proven right than to have O cone in and win?
1
Posted on 11/30/16 at 11:50 pm to SportTiger1
Excellent and damning compilation of historical data. The school has incredibly put itself in a position where it has to hope for a nearly unprecedented improvement in its head coach. I wish someone had sent this to Alleva before the hire was made.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:18 am to beauxroux
That's why Mark Twain was a writer, not a mathematician. Statics almost always hold true.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:44 am to Mr. Hangover
Sorry the search function on O jokes must be a little overloaded right now. Moving forward I will perform my due dilligence prior to posting.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 11:04 am to SportTiger1
Nice work, but numbers can and do lie,
I 'member all those off-season threads full of stats on how third year starters in the SEC make a quantum leap forward that third year.
Brandon Harris says hello.
I 'member all those off-season threads full of stats on how third year starters in the SEC make a quantum leap forward that third year.
Brandon Harris says hello.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 11:05 am
Posted on 12/1/16 at 11:35 am to Housplants
quote:
How many of the guys on that list went from being a head coach to being a journeyman DL coach, and then showed great improvement in their 2nd job having never even been a coordinator?
Say this out loud. You make this sound like a positive, when I don't really think it is.
I mean...it's a positive for Orgeron in that he somehow, beyond all odds, turned a career that had bottomed out after his one and only shot was an abysmal failure at Ole Miss into the head coaching job at what we were all calling a couple of months ago a Top 10 job in college football.
But, the reason you likely won't find many coaches that have taken that path ought to be obvious. When a career tanks like that, you don't get Shot #2. And even if you do, you sure as shite don't get Shot #2 at a FAR more prestigious job than the one you failed at the first time. What you MIGHT get is a job at some small school in hopes of working your way back into the good graces of college football.
Good for Orgeron...but hiring him makes LSU look ridiculous, especially when you frame it the way you did.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 11:39 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
Outside of Jimbo and Herman I'm not sure who would have been next in line.
You start at the top of the list of coaches in America and start going down. Somewhere on that list, long LOOONG before you get to the former coach's DL coach, you'll find a successful current head coach who wants the job. Easy peasy.
Anything other than this and it appears that we are pretending that we all thought Orgeron was some diamond in the rough, toiling away as a position coach when what he should have been doing was running his own program. I mean...no other school in America has thought that, but who knows, right?
I appreciate attempting to be hopeful given the situation, but there's really no reason to attempt to make this seem like a solid move that's not far more likely to bite us in the arse than make us great.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 12:13 pm to beauxroux
quote:
Not sure stats agree. Saban is elite now. His first 3 years he averaged over 4 losses a year.
Saban was good, then became elite.
I think the evidence supports you can go from good to elite. Can't go from bad to elite.
People say O has improved. Well that's great, but do you think a workaholic like Saban hasn't improved, even lately? Sure his gains aren't as huge as you would expect O's to be since O was so awful at first, but Saban is getting better as well.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 12:16 pm
Posted on 12/1/16 at 12:27 pm to GeauxTigerTM
To think we skipped over Chip Kelly, Bobby Petrino, Fleck, Fuentes, Gundy, etc etc etc etc etc for O...still makes me 
Posted on 12/1/16 at 1:21 pm to apfour21
quote:
I had a Pro O guy tell me his Ole Miss record doesn't matter because it was a decade ago.
It would matter less if he had re-grouped after being fired at OM and built up some programs as a Hc that led to him getting the job at LSU. Even if they were smaller time programs. Any measure of success ATT ALL. Interim coach is not evidence of success that carries over. That's just my opinion. And even after USC there didn't appear to be people in line willing to hire him at any major programs. Or any programs for that matter.
He didn't do that either because he wasn't desirable option as a HC anywhere or because he didn't want to. In the end it was easier to sneak in the backdoor. And here he is.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 1:38 pm to ibleedprplngld
quote:
That's why Mark Twain was a writer, not a mathematician. Statics almost always hold true.
There are some stats floating around which show our O-Line is the best in the country. You really think that's true?
Posted on 12/1/16 at 1:40 pm to nm1230
quote:
It would matter less if he had re-grouped after being fired at OM and built up some programs as a Hc that led to him getting the job at LSU. Even if they were smaller time programs. Any measure of success ATT ALL. Interim coach is not evidence of success that carries over. That's just my opinion. And even after USC there didn't appear to be people in line willing to hire him at any major programs. Or any programs for that matter.
He didn't do that either because he wasn't desirable option as a HC anywhere or because he didn't want to. In the end it was easier to sneak in the backdoor. And here he is.
This.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 1:44 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
Saban was good, then became elite.
He was 6-5-1 and the 6-6 in his first 2 years at Mich St. That is not "good". So his gains were huge.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 1:49 pm to ffhouston
quote:
Nice work, but numbers can and do lie,
Nope... Figures don't lie....
But Liars do figure...
Posted on 12/1/16 at 1:54 pm to ibleedprplngld
quote:
That's why Mark Twain was a writer, not a mathematician. Statics almost always hold true.
It is what it is. But statistics can be manipulated. For example-- before Nick Saban, no coach with "Saban" as his last name won a title. Does that mean he had a zero chance-- of course not. Mark Twain was much smarter than you give him credit for-- even if he was not a mathematician.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 2:07 pm to beauxroux
quote:
It is what it is. But statistics can be manipulated. For example-- before Nick Saban, no coach with "Saban" as his last name won a title. Does that mean he had a zero chance-- of course not. Mark Twain was much smarter than you give him credit for-- even if he was not a mathematician.
Woah dude. That's some crazy spin.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 2:17 pm to molsusports
quote:
Chizik and Mack owe their championships to Vince Young and Cam Newton.
Chizik was a horrible outlier. But who recruited VY to Texas? And while Mack started 1-10 his first 2 years at UNC, his last 2 were something like 10-2, 11-1. I don't think they lost fewer than 5 games in any year after he left in 97 until last season.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 2:23 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
Based on this, only 1 NC winning coach had a worse 3 year start than O...Bill McCartney at Colorado.
All but 7 of them started with a winning record.
The avg for all coaches is right around 70% in their first 3 years.
TLDR - unless you believe in miracles, we're screwed.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 2:47 pm to beauxroux
quote:
He was 6-5-1 and the 6-6 in his first 2 years at Mich St. That is not "good". So his gains were huge.
You are probably deliberately missing the point.
Michigan State improved immediately under his coaching. You could transplant Saban today to Vanderbilt and he would improve the team. They wouldn't win the SEC because they don't have the talent or support structures, but he would improve the team. As he did during his tenure with Toledo, as he did with his tenure at Michigan State, as he did at LSU, as he did at Alabama.
Superior coaches don't automatically win their conferences, or national championships, but they make their programs better than before they arrived.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 4:23 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
Woah dude. That's some crazy spin.
I agree. It's the same craziness that says coaches don't improve after first 3 years. No matter how many examples are given that show they in fact do. But, people read into things what they want. Or, they skew the data with conditions like "fired from their first job and then got another job at a power 5 school." The bottom line is that some coaches improve from very bad starts and win national championships and some do not. But, their successes and failures in NO WAY, SHAPE OR FORM determine what Coach O will or will not do.
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