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re: How much do HCs improve...data inside
Posted on 12/1/16 at 4:49 pm to beauxroux
Posted on 12/1/16 at 4:49 pm to beauxroux
Hey man, i've already conceded that coaches improve.
The data is skewed to only show coaches that have won an NC, then comparing apples to apples against O's resume. there is no manipulation, just hard cold facts.
And that fact is, it's incredibly unlikely for O to improve enough to win an NC, based on historical records. Impossible, no..i guess not.
The data is skewed to only show coaches that have won an NC, then comparing apples to apples against O's resume. there is no manipulation, just hard cold facts.
And that fact is, it's incredibly unlikely for O to improve enough to win an NC, based on historical records. Impossible, no..i guess not.
1
Posted on 12/1/16 at 4:52 pm to molsusports
quote:
Michigan State improved immediately under his coaching.
If you are talking about wins/losses... not so fast. Sparty was 6-6 and 5-7 (although they had to later forfeit their 5 wins) in the two years before Saban. Saban went 6-5-1 and 6-6 in his first 2 years. Not such an "immediate" improvement.
Just 2 years before that, they were ranked 14th and beat USC in the bowl game.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 12/1/16 at 4:57 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
And that fact is, it's incredibly unlikely for O to improve enough to win an NC, based on historical records. Impossible, no..i guess not.
I understand what you are trying to prove. I just think your stats do not prove it. So, my question to you still stands: How does the success or failure of other coaches' past performances in any way, shape or form, determine what Coach O will or will not do?
Posted on 12/1/16 at 5:20 pm to beauxroux
What are we even talking about? Sure they improved. The program went from a losing record to a winning record in the first year. Granted it wasn't as dramatic as what he did at Toledo or LSU immediately. But it was an improvement and it notably differs from progress in the opposite direction - as seen with Orgeron at Ole Miss.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 5:29 pm to molsusports
quote:
What are we even talking about? Sure they improved. The program went from a losing record to a winning record in the first year. Granted it wasn't as dramatic as what he did at Toledo or LSU immediately. But it was an improvement
And didn't USC and LSU improve under Coach O? LSU was 2-2 when he took over. Didn't LSU finish with a winning record? Immediate and dramatic improvement.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 12/1/16 at 5:48 pm to SportTiger1
Suggests that these men were good coaches from the get geaux. Does not mean that they did not get better over the course of their careers. I am one who thinks the O hire is 100% fail anyway one slices it as things stand now. He cannot be a top 10 coach assuming LSU is a top ten program, which BTW it has not been for about 5 years in terms of end of year rank.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 5:51 pm to Rickdaddy4188
I find myself agreeing with RickDaddy....what's happening to me... 
Posted on 12/1/16 at 6:24 pm to beauxroux
quote:
I understand what you are trying to prove. I just think your stats do not prove it. So, my question to you still stands: How does the success or failure of other coaches' past performances in any way, shape or form, determine what Coach O will or will not do?
It doesn't determine anything.
But great coaches are usually at least good from the very beginning of their careers. Starting off your career 10-25 does not typically lead to NC success. Is it definitive? No but the data is reliably predictive.
The world is probablistic. Nothing is set in stone for Coach O. But there is no doubt that given his background and who he has to coach against the odds are not in his favor to be a great coach.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 6:28 pm
Posted on 12/1/16 at 7:16 pm to beauxroux
No. A reasonable guess is both USC and LSU probably finish with the same record. He has no good wins to point to from LSU this year and lost to Florida. He also lost two of three at USC versis his good opponents. So no. There's no good reason to argue he improved either team. The coaches he replaced at both schools were fired for his type of results.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 7:27 pm to molsusports
quote:
No. A reasonable guess is both USC and LSU probably finish with the same record.
Guess all you like. My eyes saw improvement with record setting performances. Your eyes saw nothing. No one is as blind as those who refuse to see.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 7:43 pm to beauxroux
Well. It was a record to be held scoreless at home. We hadn't done that since 2002.. We also hadn't lost at home as 14 point favorites in a while. So yeah. I guess there were some record setting performances.
Can I get a yaw yaw?
Can I get a yaw yaw?
Posted on 12/1/16 at 8:02 pm to beauxroux
He definitely is better than les at running up the score against horrible defenses, I'll give you that.
He still shat the bed against the two good defenses he played, exactly like les did to start the year.
Based on the performance vs Bama and UF, there is not basis to think O would have beaten auburn and wisky
He still shat the bed against the two good defenses he played, exactly like les did to start the year.
Based on the performance vs Bama and UF, there is not basis to think O would have beaten auburn and wisky
Posted on 12/1/16 at 8:08 pm to molsusports
You really are wasting your breath arguing with people who think Orgeron's interim gigs are better indications than his permanent HC gig.
You forget that these people are just simple farmers, people of the land, the common clay of the new West.... you know, morons.
You forget that these people are just simple farmers, people of the land, the common clay of the new West.... you know, morons.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:01 pm to clamdip
Jock Sutherland...1937. Yup, I see the relevance. In short, the game (both on and off of the field) has changed. I personally would discount the pre-millennial data. Since 2000, Saban (whose data is messed up), and Meyers are the most relevant. Of those two, only CUM fits the mold you are implying IMO. As for the others, a singular. dynamic quarterback seemed instrumental (Brown/Young, Chiz/Cam, Jimbo/Crabby). Even USC won largely because they paid out like a boss. Ditto Miami and tOSU. At any rate, just my .02. Grind on amigo.
Posted on 12/1/16 at 10:17 pm to SportTiger1
We will one day look back on this hire and realize that it was every bit as idiotic as the Hallman hire was in the 90's.
Posted on 12/2/16 at 2:11 am to jimmy the leg
quote:
I personally would discount the pre-millennial data
We'll alrighty then lol. Coaching is coaching. The whole point is, a good coach can improve and be elite. A bad coach can improve and probably just be 'good'.
I guess we'll see. But history is not on Os side here.
Posted on 12/2/16 at 2:14 am to SportTiger1
quote:
He still shat the bed against the two good defenses he played, exactly like les did to start the year.
lord jesus, forgive me. I have to say he didn't shat himself with florida. The execution went all wrong. The fumbles. The botched play at the end.
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:24 am to SportTiger1
quote:
Based on the performance vs Bama and UF, there is not basis to think O would have beaten auburn and wisky
we would be 10-2 with O at the helm all year...with an offseason to prepare and implement a new offense possibly 12-0 or 11-1
quote:
He still shat the bed against the two good defenses he played, exactly like les did to start the year
we dominated UF. Defense gave up a 97yd freak TD or we win...not to mention all the offensive woes inside the 5
quote:
He definitely is better than les at running up the score against horrible defenses, I'll give you that.
and what will be the end result when this happens? Better player development & resting more starters
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:27 am to SportTiger1
quote:Wait, are you saying he shite the bed against Fl?
He still shat the bed against the two good defenses he played, exactly like les did to start the year.
quote:Holy shite. Did you even watch the Florida game?
Based on the performance vs Bama and UF, there is not basis to think O would have beaten auburn and wisky
Posted on 12/2/16 at 8:36 am to SportTiger1
Took McCartney 9 years to get a NC.
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