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Message
How much do HCs improve...data inside
Posted on 11/30/16 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 11/30/16 at 2:37 pm
I know this will not convince any pro O guys of anything they don't already believe in their heart, but i would like you to see it on paper.
One of the main arguments from O guys is, "Do you not think coaches can improve over time?" We've all heard it, over and over again. But my question is, "do they really improve THAT much?" So i set out on a discovery mission.
Since our main objective for O is to win an NC while at LSU, how does his first 3 years at Ole Miss compare to all the past NC winners? So i've included every NC winning coach since 1936 (inception of the AP poll). Obviously some coaches have won muliple titles, so they are only listed once. I've included their record of their first 3 years as a HC in college football, along with their winning % for those 3 years.
Keep in mind, O's winning % at Ole Miss was 28.6%
Based on this, only 1 NC winning coach had a worse 3 year start than O...Bill McCartney at Colorado.
All but 7 of them started with a winning record.
The avg for all coaches is right around 70% in their first 3 years.
TLDR - unless you believe in miracles, we're screwed.
Thoughts?
One of the main arguments from O guys is, "Do you not think coaches can improve over time?" We've all heard it, over and over again. But my question is, "do they really improve THAT much?" So i set out on a discovery mission.
Since our main objective for O is to win an NC while at LSU, how does his first 3 years at Ole Miss compare to all the past NC winners? So i've included every NC winning coach since 1936 (inception of the AP poll). Obviously some coaches have won muliple titles, so they are only listed once. I've included their record of their first 3 years as a HC in college football, along with their winning % for those 3 years.
Keep in mind, O's winning % at Ole Miss was 28.6%
Based on this, only 1 NC winning coach had a worse 3 year start than O...Bill McCartney at Colorado.
All but 7 of them started with a winning record.
The avg for all coaches is right around 70% in their first 3 years.
TLDR - unless you believe in miracles, we're screwed.
Thoughts?
33
Posted on 11/30/16 at 2:40 pm to SportTiger1
But coordinators and locking down I-10 baw
Posted on 11/30/16 at 2:40 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
unless you believe in miracles, we're screwed.
I believe in miracles and still think we're screwed
Posted on 11/30/16 at 2:41 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
I believe in miracles and still think we're screwed
fair enough
Posted on 11/30/16 at 2:42 pm to TheCaterpillar
Brennan will save us when he re commits IMO
Posted on 11/30/16 at 2:55 pm to SportTiger1
You worked hard on this so Ima provide you with a needed bump
Posted on 11/30/16 at 2:55 pm to SportTiger1
I don't think those numbers take into account talking like us
Posted on 11/30/16 at 2:56 pm to SportTiger1
Interesting. But I also don't think LSUs game plan is to win a national championship with O. This may get some downvotes, but I think he's just the placeholder until Saban retires or a better coach becomes available.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:00 pm to Kcoyote
quote:
This may get some downvotes, but I think he's just the placeholder until Saban retires or a better coach becomes available.
You're giving Joe Alleva and Co. too much credit. I sincerely doubt that they've thought that far ahead.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:00 pm to Kcoyote
quote:
Interesting. But I also don't think LSUs game plan is to win a national championship with O. This may get some downvotes, but I think he's just the placeholder until Saban retires or a better coach becomes available.
well sadly, i think you are probably right. and if that's the case, people need to accept that and move on, instead of thinking this hire gets us closer to a championship.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:01 pm to Kcoyote
Saban's numbers are incorrect.
1990 Toldeo 9-2
1995 Michigan State 6-5-1
1996 Michigan State 6-6
21-13-1 (61.4%)
Which makes me question the rest of them.
1990 Toldeo 9-2
1995 Michigan State 6-5-1
1996 Michigan State 6-6
21-13-1 (61.4%)
Which makes me question the rest of them.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:02 pm to Damone
quote:
I don't think those numbers take into account talking like us
and binders... they didn't have the binder.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:09 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
Thoughts?
I think a lot of LSU fans will find shite to bitch about. Let the man complete a season or find another team to follow in 2017, might I suggest Texas
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:10 pm to LSUGrad00
quote:
Saban's numbers are incorrect.
1990 Toldeo 9-2
1995 Michigan State 6-5-1
1996 Michigan State 6-6
21-13-1 (61.4%)
Which makes me question the rest of them.
You're right...i was transferring data pretty damn fast. But feel free to check the rest for me.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:12 pm to LSUfanatic60
quote:
I think a lot of LSU fans will find shite to bitch about. Let the man complete a season or find another team to follow in 2017, might I suggest Texas
It's not like we're talking about uniforms or the band playing Neck. Forgive me if we think hiring a failed HC is 'bitch worthy'.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:17 pm to SportTiger1
Your data is flawed. It doesn't include the shirt rip off and Dwayne Johnson recruiting multipliers. Factoring both of those in, O is clearly on the upper end of this scale.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:18 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
It's not like we're talking about uniforms or the band playing Neck. Forgive me if we think hiring a failed HC is 'bitch worthy'.
Its been well established a lot of folks on here are not happy with the hire. I get it; everyone said their peace (its getting redundant now) its time to move on. Who will be the OC? What kind of offense will we run? What recruits are coming and going (this is the hot topic now)? What juniors are staying? What bowl game will we be in? Basically its time to accept it and move on
This post was edited on 11/30/16 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:19 pm to SportTiger1
Did any of them have a gap between the first 3 years and the next coaching gig as big as O? It's sort of a unique situation to have nearly 10 years between head coaching jobs. I see a big difference in changing your stripes from year-3 to year-4 vs year-3 to year-13. I just don't think his stint at Ole Miss is really relevant anymore, compared to say his 2 stints as an interim coach.
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:21 pm to Damone
quote:
I don't think those numbers take into account talking like us
I'd also like to see a column titled Binder (Y/N)
Posted on 11/30/16 at 3:23 pm to Kcoyote
quote:
But I also don't think LSUs game plan is to win a national championship with O. This may get some downvotes, but I think he's just the placeholder until Saban retires or a better coach becomes available.
This is very likely. At least O pretty much guarantees that we should continue to recruit at a high level (if you don't include the recruiting BS that has happened over the past few days
) and keep LSU as an attractive destination for coaches in the future. I guess this begs the question "why fire Miles in the first place" though.
This post was edited on 11/30/16 at 3:25 pm
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