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Started By
Message
Trump will go into election night with 268 EV's pretty well locked up
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:13 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:13 am
NC, GA, AZ and NV will go Trump based on the early vote being such a high % of the overall vote and we see Republicans crushing it there.
Here are my odds that Trump wins the following states that would put him over the top with 270+ EV's:
PA: 70% (low college educated %, homesite of the Trump assassination attempt, Scott Presler, etc.)
WI: 60% (indies here could swing to Harris and college educated % is higher)
MI: 55% (the naked partisanship of the governor and secretary of state here scares me)
NH: 35%
VA: 25%
NE-2: 25%
MN: 20%
NM: 15%
Here are my odds that Trump wins the following states that would put him over the top with 270+ EV's:
PA: 70% (low college educated %, homesite of the Trump assassination attempt, Scott Presler, etc.)
WI: 60% (indies here could swing to Harris and college educated % is higher)
MI: 55% (the naked partisanship of the governor and secretary of state here scares me)
NH: 35%
VA: 25%
NE-2: 25%
MN: 20%
NM: 15%
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 9:16 am
20
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:14 am to GeneralLee
Its happening isnt it
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:14 am to GeneralLee
Personally I put PA at like 60% and MI and WI at like 40% trump but that’s just my two cents
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:15 am to GeneralLee
Landslide incoming
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:16 am to GeneralLee
quote:
PA: 70% (low college educated %, homesite of the Trump assassination attempt, Scott Presler, etc.)
WI: 60% (indies here could swing to Harris and college educated % is higher)
MI: 55% (the naked partisanship of the governor and secretary of state here scares me)
So probability he wins all three states is 23.10%. But probability he wins at least one of those three is 94.60%. I'll take it.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:17 am to SCwTiger
You damn right it is!!
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:17 am to GeneralLee
None of those states are locked up unfortunately. Nevada appears to be getting close though.
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 9:18 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:17 am to rebelrouser
Then why are so many people on here saying he’s going to lose
All the early date points otherwise
All the early date points otherwise
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:17 am to JumpingTheShark
Wisconsin is the most likely to go Trump IMO.
They underestimated him by 5 and 7 points the last 2 elections. The polls are so close now I cannot imagine he doesn’t take WI.
They underestimated him by 5 and 7 points the last 2 elections. The polls are so close now I cannot imagine he doesn’t take WI.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:18 am to GeneralLee
If we're relying on PA, WI and MI, might as well prepare for disappointment. Coming down to areas with the highest level of fraud will make it a nail-biter that favors her.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:18 am to rebelrouser
quote:
So probability he wins all three states is 23.10%. But probability he wins at least one of those three is 94.60%. I'll take it.
Biden had less than a .02% chance to win as of 2AM on election night at 2AM.
Until the late mail in votes drop statistics don’t matter.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:19 am to GeneralLee
Early voting is a relative new thing. I am not sure anyone can make any predictions based on it. It’s likely the early voting is helping republicans but it could also be eating into the day of voting which hurts them. Its just an unknown.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:19 am to TN Tygah
quote:
Wisconsin is the most likely to go Trump IMO.
Agreed
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:21 am to rebelrouser
quote:
So probability he wins all three states is 23.10%. But probability he wins at least one of those three is 94.60%. I'll take i
Those are the probabilities assuming that all three states are independent events, while in reality they tend to move in a highly correlated fashion. So that increases the odds he wins all three states but lowers the odds he wins at least one of the three.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:22 am to GeneralLee
We will all be focused on turnout in eastern Pennsylvania ( Philly ) at 9:00 pm Tuesday. That will tell the tale. If Trump is running 3%+ points ahead we will know Michigan and Wisconsin are likely to follow.I think all three go the same way one way or the other.
This will be happening in tandem with news in NC and Va that will set the tone early. Any “ steal” of course would again happen in darkness when we are sleeping.
This will be happening in tandem with news in NC and Va that will set the tone early. Any “ steal” of course would again happen in darkness when we are sleeping.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:23 am to GeneralLee
A 270-268 loss where she barely holds the blue wall by fractions of a point would be devastating.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:23 am to rebelrouser
quote:No. that's not how it works. Each state is not an isolated risk. They are all subject to the same variables. So if he loses Pennsylvania, there is an excellent chance he will lose all of those. And if he wins New Mexico, there's a good chance he wins all of those.
So probability he wins all three states is 23.10%. But probability he wins at least one of those three is 94.60%. I'll take it.
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 9:24 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:24 am to JumpingTheShark
quote:
I put PA at like 60% and MI and WI at like 40%
That skank unholy trinity (Governor, SoS, AG) will not let Michigan go red.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:26 am to DallasTiger11
The dude form the Nebraska who refused to change the law is a dick 
but it won’t matter trump will win Pennsylvania 
but it won’t matter trump will win Pennsylvania 
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:34 am to GeneralLee
quote:
Trump will go into election night with 268 EV's pretty well locked up
And Harris will stage the greatest comeback of all time.
The media will explain to you how it was all a mirage, that Harris voters are all gainfully employed and thus could not vote early, etc.
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