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Started By
Message
re: Trump will go into election night with 268 EV's pretty well locked up
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:36 am to JumpingTheShark
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:36 am to JumpingTheShark
quote:
Personally I put PA at like 60% and MI and WI at like 40% trump but that’s just my two cents
He lost Wisconsin by 20,000 votes in 2020 after polling 6% behind, and the early voting looks better for him. It is at worst 50/50.
0
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:37 am to RolltidePA
quote:
If we're relying on PA, WI and MI,
Dems will be cheating hard in these three states, also in VA and GA.
It's going to be tough to beat the cheat.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:39 am to GeneralLee
There may be some curveballs early in the night depending on how returns look in Maine, NJ, NH, Virginia, etc.
If any or all of those are close, it’s going to take a lot of media collusion to try and pretend Trump’s done.
If any or all of those are close, it’s going to take a lot of media collusion to try and pretend Trump’s done.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:40 am to GeneralLee
Trump basically needs one of those toss ups and the dims need to sweep
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:40 am to dallastiger55
quote:Because you just never know. For me it's because I realize that most Americans are dopes. 60% don't have the foresight to be able to deal with a $1000 emergency bill. And, Romney was spot on with the 47%.
Then why are so many people on here saying he’s going to lose
All the early date points otherwise
This race is 50/50.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:43 am to GeneralLee
Red wave
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:44 am to Penrod
Correct. If Trump wins he wins in a near sweep. If he loses ( a steal for instance) it will look haphazard and patternless and we will be wondering how he won by a large margin here and yet lost there ( likely at 3 am).
I don’t see any LEGITIMATE way all three don’t move in unison . The same with NC and Georgia and AZ and Nevada.
I don’t see any LEGITIMATE way all three don’t move in unison . The same with NC and Georgia and AZ and Nevada.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:47 am to Lsupimp
quote:Why not? Wisconsin went Bush while the others didn't.
I don’t see any LEGITIMATE way all three don’t move in unison .
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:47 am to rebelrouser
And the probability she sweep all the listed states is less than 5 percent.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:50 am to GeneralLee
PA, if he wins PA he wins the presidency. He effectively keeps her from any path to 270.
I am curious about the down ballot. I want to know if he wins, does he have major coat tails.
I am curious about the down ballot. I want to know if he wins, does he have major coat tails.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:01 am to Jake88
Sure. But I think THIS election breaks the same way because these states cluster the same way demographically and and the issues at play. I don’t think the upper Midwest states have any appreciable differences attitude- wise in THIS election. I see them moving as one. An upper Midwest cluster.
Of the three I see Wisconsin as the most likely to go its own way, even more than Michigan.But I see them all being in the Trump camp.
Of the three I see Wisconsin as the most likely to go its own way, even more than Michigan.But I see them all being in the Trump camp.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:03 am to GeneralLee
He has to win PA or we're going to be in deep shite.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:04 am to GeneralLee
quote:
MI: 55% (the naked partisanship of the governor and secretary of state here scares me)
Isn’t the AG one of them too? Is so…yikes !
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:14 am to Lsupimp
quote:Then how are Ohio and Indiana so different? Ohio has large cities like Pa.
Sure. But I think THIS election breaks the same way because these states cluster the same way demographically
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:22 am to Jake88
Indiana is more aligned with Ohio.
Oddly , Iowa and Wisconsin have been historically aligned and Iowa has shifted far to the Right of late while Wisconsin hasn’t.
Bottom line I see a more than 50 % chance that Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin move in tandem. And I see the white working class in general breaking heavily for Trump.
Oddly , Iowa and Wisconsin have been historically aligned and Iowa has shifted far to the Right of late while Wisconsin hasn’t.
Bottom line I see a more than 50 % chance that Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin move in tandem. And I see the white working class in general breaking heavily for Trump.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:23 am to GeneralLee
I pray you are right.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:48 am to Golgi Apparatus
quote:
Nevada appears to be getting close though.
Honestly, if it goes as predicted Nevada doesn't really matter. Trump has to win one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. Nevada's 6 EC votes don't matter in that event because if he wins one of those 3 states he's over 270 with out without Nevada's 6.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 11:02 am to Big Gorilla
quote:If Texas is of any indication, voting was down 1 million + compared to 2020.
Early voting is a relative new thing. I am not sure anyone can make any predictions based on it. It’s likely the early voting is helping republicans but it could also be eating into the day of voting which hurts them. Its just an unknown.
Is this attributed to changes in the "emergency" rules put into place during the Covid pandemic that allowed unfettered vote by mail?
Posted on 11/1/24 at 11:08 am to Epic Cajun
quote:
Nevada's 6 EC votes don't matter
Don't say that. It mattered to Al Gore back in 2000 when he lost his own home state of Tenn. that had 6 electoral votes. Bush won 271-266. Point being, all EVs are important when all other EVs are not known for sure.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 11:22 am to GeneralLee
If there are truly 100-200k Amish preparing to vote for Trump it would be historic, and 90% chance Trump wins PA
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 11:23 am
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