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Started By
Message
re: Trump will go into election night with 268 EV's pretty well locked up
Posted on 11/1/24 at 11:25 am to RolltidePA
Posted on 11/1/24 at 11:25 am to RolltidePA
quote:
If we're relying on PA, WI and MI, might as well prepare for disappointment.
Well, no choice but to rely on them. Trump HAS to pick up one of them. No other way to victory.
0
Posted on 11/1/24 at 11:27 am to GeneralLee
He needs to win unexpected states, like Virginia, where they don't have a big ballot harvesting initiative in place.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 11:31 am to GeneralLee
Like every year I have no evidence beforehand that it's going to happen, but I would be shocked if Wisconsin voted leftward of PA. 2020 margin was about the size of a Bryant-Denny lower end zone and it was also one of the few GOP wins in 2022.
I feel better about WI than NV tbh
I feel better about WI than NV tbh
Posted on 11/1/24 at 11:35 am to rebelrouser
quote:
So probability he wins all three states is 23.10%
Well, this gets a little complicated
If he wins Michigan, 99% chance he wins both PA and WI.
If he wins PA, 90% chance he also wins WI.
If he wins WI, 80% chance he wins PA, 70% chance he wins MI
They mostly vote the same but MI has a tendency to break left and Wisconsin has a tendency to break right. My guess would be whoever wins PA is going to assuredly win their counterpart
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