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Trump now leads in RealClearPolitics polling in all the major swing states
Posted on 10/17/24 at 10:41 pm
Posted on 10/17/24 at 10:41 pm
Compare that to the polls from 2016 and 2020. Momentum is really building.
9
Posted on 10/17/24 at 10:42 pm to Thundercles
Sorry but Florida isn’t a swing state
Posted on 10/17/24 at 10:44 pm to Thundercles
The Ohio 16 and 20 numbers are crazy. He won by like 9 both times.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 10:46 pm to Thundercles
Bonkers469 say Trump needs an onside kick to have a chance.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 10:47 pm to Thundercles
can you imagine if the polls in 2024 are as off as they were in 2016 and 2020?
That would mean Trump would run away winning the popular vote. He would win the popular vote by as much as Hillary did in 2016 if these polls are aligned with the past couple elections. That would be an amazing rejection of the woke agenda by the American populace
Just please don’t be rigged
That would mean Trump would run away winning the popular vote. He would win the popular vote by as much as Hillary did in 2016 if these polls are aligned with the past couple elections. That would be an amazing rejection of the woke agenda by the American populace
Just please don’t be rigged
Posted on 10/17/24 at 10:52 pm to Huskertiger2
Not anymore thanks to BDR
Posted on 10/17/24 at 10:58 pm to Thundercles
One would think pollsters would want to get it as close to right as possible.
Otherwise, who cares?
If we're going with assumption that the pollsters are learning from their prior mistakes, is it possible that these polls are closer to what will be than similar polls in 16 and 20?
Otherwise, who cares?
If we're going with assumption that the pollsters are learning from their prior mistakes, is it possible that these polls are closer to what will be than similar polls in 16 and 20?
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:01 pm to Thundercles
Of those 7 swing states if Trump outperformed the polls by roughly the same margin he did in the past 2 elections this would be the win margin for Trump in each state’s election:
Wisconsin Trump +6
Pennsylvania Trump +6
Michigan Trump +4.8
Arizona Trump +4.5
Nevada Trump +4
North Carolina Trump +6
Georgia Trump +4.8
Bonus:
Ohio Trump +15
Florida Trump +12
Wisconsin Trump +6
Pennsylvania Trump +6
Michigan Trump +4.8
Arizona Trump +4.5
Nevada Trump +4
North Carolina Trump +6
Georgia Trump +4.8
Bonus:
Ohio Trump +15
Florida Trump +12
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:07 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
If we're going with assumption that the pollsters are learning from their prior mistakes, is it possible that these polls are closer to what will be than similar polls in 16 and 20?
I recall conversation about pollsters adjusting their methods after the 2016 embarrassment so it probably won't be 10 points off like before.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:13 pm to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
Bonkers469 say Trump needs an onside kick to have a chance.
Got that info from his local Democrat chapter meeting, lol. He was leading the meeting.
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 11:14 pm
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:15 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Wisconsin Trump +6
Pennsylvania Trump +6
Michigan Trump +4.8
Arizona Trump +4.5
Nevada Trump +4
North Carolina Trump +6
Georgia Trump +4.8
I'm almost there....
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:16 pm to Thundercles
quote:the problem is, they adjusted after 2016, and were just as off in 2020
recall conversation about pollsters adjusting their methods after the 2016 embarrassment so it probably won't be 10 points off like before.
They don't know how to find Trump voters, because Trump voters don't want to be found. Simple as that.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:21 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
They don't know how to find Trump voters, because Trump voters don't want to be found. Simple as that.
Funny thing is I wandered over to DU the other day and they are convinced polling is skewed positively toward Trump. Their idea is that Trump voters love to brag about being Trump voters so we'd happily answer a phone call to tell the pollster we're voting for Trump.
Just a picture of the delusion they live in.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:31 pm to Thundercles
That's beautiful 
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:34 pm to Thundercles
I love how they think Ohio & Florida are swing states but there’s wider margin there than in MN.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 2:53 am to Thundercles
FL and OH are not swing states and after this election you probably can move them from lean red to solid red. If he overperforms like he did in 2016 and 2020 than no cheating will be able to stop him and this will be a landslide. Not that is matters, but their hold on the national popular vote may be in jeopardy at this point. It would be nice if he does get the popular vote though so they can shut the frick up about muh democracy.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 3:11 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Wisconsin Trump +6 Pennsylvania Trump +6 Michigan Trump +4.8 Arizona Trump +4.5 Nevada Trump +4 North Carolina Trump +6 Georgia Trump +4.8 Bonus: Ohio Trump +15 Florida Trump +12
Those states would all get called by midnight in that case. Probably earlier.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 6:02 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Of those 7 swing states if Trump outperformed the polls by roughly the same margin he did in the past 2 elections this would be the win margin for Trump in each state’s election:
Wisconsin Trump +6
Pennsylvania Trump +6
Michigan Trump +4.8
Arizona Trump +4.5
Nevada Trump +4
North Carolina Trump +6
Georgia Trump +4.8
Bonus:
Ohio Trump +15
Florida Trump +12
Stop! I can only get so hard
Posted on 10/18/24 at 6:04 am to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
Bonkers469 say Trump needs an onside kick to have a chance.
haven't see bonkers since HHTM pulled his pants down
Posted on 10/18/24 at 6:06 am to Huskertiger2
quote:
Sorry but Florida isn’t a swing state
I know what you are saying but I was stunned when I realized last year while visiting - during Covid, plus a couple of years before and after - there have been more people who moved to Florida, than Alabama has living in it.
5 million more people live in Florida to enable the cheat.
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