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Started By
Message
re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 6/21/26 at 9:44 pm to UptownJoeBrown
Posted on 6/21/26 at 9:44 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
Help the civilians take over province by province with the help of American air power
The Ghaddafi solution except without Hillary and Obama replacing Ghaddafi with something worse.
Solution 2 is to arm the protestors whose friends were killed with Ukraine suicide drones and conventional arms.
1
Posted on 6/22/26 at 7:07 am to Auburn1968
During this slow time, I thought I'd post the information below that I posted in the SoH thread. I've read every page in this thread and don't recall seeing "Rules" of use for International waterways and straits. Doesn't really mater if countries want to do what they want to do, but below are the international agreed upon expectations for a location like the straits of Hormuz.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), straits used for international navigation are governed by the regime of transit passage, which balances the sovereignty of bordering states with the need for unimpeded global maritime and aerial flow.
Key Rules for Transit Passage
Right of Passage: All ships and aircraft, including warships and submarines (which may transit submerged), enjoy the right of continuous and expeditious transit through the entire strait and its approaches.
No Suspension: Bordering states cannot suspend transit passage for any reason, including security concerns, nor can they impose requirements that effectively hamper or impair this right.
Prohibited Activities: Vessels and aircraft must refrain from any threat or use of force against the bordering states, conduct weapons exercises, or engage in intelligence gathering. Activities unrelated to transit, such as loitering or scientific research without authorization, are prohibited.
Compliance Obligations: Users must comply with generally accepted international regulations regarding maritime safety, collision avoidance, and the prevention of marine pollution.
Coastal State Authority: Bordering states may designate sea lanes and prescribe traffic separation schemes for safety, enforce laws against pollution discharge, and regulate fishing and customs, provided these measures do not nullify the right of transit.
Exceptions and Alternative Regimes
Innocent Passage: If a strait contains a route through the high seas or exclusive economic zone that is equally convenient, ships may use that route under the ordinary freedom of navigation rather than transit passage.
Existing Conventions: The transit passage regime does not apply to straits regulated by long-standing international conventions, such as the Turkish Straits (governed by the 1936 Montreux Convention) or the Danish Straits.
Geographic Exceptions: If a strait is formed by an island belonging to a coastal state and its mainland, and there is a seaward route of similar convenience, the transit passage regime may not apply to that specific route.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
EDIT...
Key metrics for 2025 traffic include: With respect to the Straits of Hormuz
Crude Oil: Nearly 15 million barrels per day of crude oil passed through, with most exports destined for Asia, particularly China and India.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Around 20% of global LNG trade transited the strait, primarily originating from Qatar.
Vessel Count: Approximately 3,000 vessels typically passed through the strait each month prior to the escalation of conflict in late February 2026.
Alternative Routes: While some oil was diverted via pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, all LNG had to be transported by ship through the strait, highlighting its indispensable role in global energy markets.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), straits used for international navigation are governed by the regime of transit passage, which balances the sovereignty of bordering states with the need for unimpeded global maritime and aerial flow.
Key Rules for Transit Passage
Right of Passage: All ships and aircraft, including warships and submarines (which may transit submerged), enjoy the right of continuous and expeditious transit through the entire strait and its approaches.
No Suspension: Bordering states cannot suspend transit passage for any reason, including security concerns, nor can they impose requirements that effectively hamper or impair this right.
Prohibited Activities: Vessels and aircraft must refrain from any threat or use of force against the bordering states, conduct weapons exercises, or engage in intelligence gathering. Activities unrelated to transit, such as loitering or scientific research without authorization, are prohibited.
Compliance Obligations: Users must comply with generally accepted international regulations regarding maritime safety, collision avoidance, and the prevention of marine pollution.
Coastal State Authority: Bordering states may designate sea lanes and prescribe traffic separation schemes for safety, enforce laws against pollution discharge, and regulate fishing and customs, provided these measures do not nullify the right of transit.
Exceptions and Alternative Regimes
Innocent Passage: If a strait contains a route through the high seas or exclusive economic zone that is equally convenient, ships may use that route under the ordinary freedom of navigation rather than transit passage.
Existing Conventions: The transit passage regime does not apply to straits regulated by long-standing international conventions, such as the Turkish Straits (governed by the 1936 Montreux Convention) or the Danish Straits.
Geographic Exceptions: If a strait is formed by an island belonging to a coastal state and its mainland, and there is a seaward route of similar convenience, the transit passage regime may not apply to that specific route.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
EDIT...
Key metrics for 2025 traffic include: With respect to the Straits of Hormuz
Crude Oil: Nearly 15 million barrels per day of crude oil passed through, with most exports destined for Asia, particularly China and India.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Around 20% of global LNG trade transited the strait, primarily originating from Qatar.
Vessel Count: Approximately 3,000 vessels typically passed through the strait each month prior to the escalation of conflict in late February 2026.
Alternative Routes: While some oil was diverted via pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, all LNG had to be transported by ship through the strait, highlighting its indispensable role in global energy markets.
This post was edited on 6/22/26 at 7:41 am
Posted on 6/22/26 at 8:51 am to Victor R Franko
Plans of Peace deal must still be on.
Oil prices still dropping.
Oil prices still dropping.
Posted on 6/22/26 at 9:42 am to lsu xman
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Qatar’s Energy Minister tells Reuters that 13 people were killed and 66 injured in the explosion at the Ras Laffan Industrial Area gas site. He says the blast was accidental, not caused by external attack or sabotage, and has not affected Doha’s export capabilities - Reuters
Posted on 6/22/26 at 9:50 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:My contention is that the postwar, U.S.-led international order organized around dollar reserve dominance, trade openness, and American military primacy, has delivered substantial geopolitical advantages to the United States while simultaneously imposing structural costs on its productive economy.
You realize you just supported his argument, right?
All of that requires Pax Americana.
...
There is nothing to suggest this model isn't sustainable.
It is consistent then to claim that persistent trade deficits, deindustrialization, financialization, and rising domestic inequality can be seen as systemic features of a dollar-centered global system, and that many of Trump’s trade and foreign-policy initiatives can be understood as attempts to rebalance these embedded asymmetries.
While we can all acknowledge that the liberal international order has generated enormous benefits for the United States, the important question in the context of my earlier posts is not simply whether the system’s aggregate benefits outweigh its costs, but whether its costs, which are highly concentrated and disproportionately borne by the American productive base, have begun to erode the domestic political foundation required to sustain it.
The extent to which large segments of the population perceive globalization as economically punitive, enriching financial, political, and industrial elites while degrading their own material position, is politically significant and animates the populist backlash associated with Trump, undermining the domestic consensus necessary to maintain an expansive and costly global leadership role.
Posted on 6/22/26 at 10:08 am to LSUnKaty
quote:
My contention is that the postwar, U.S.-led international order organized around dollar reserve dominance, trade openness, and American military primacy, has delivered substantial geopolitical advantages to the United States while simultaneously imposing structural costs on its productive economy.
It is consistent then to claim that persistent trade deficits, deindustrialization, financialization, and rising domestic inequality can be seen as systemic features of a dollar-centered global system, and that many of Trump’s trade and foreign-policy initiatives can be understood as attempts to rebalance these embedded asymmetries.
While we can all acknowledge that the liberal international order has generated enormous benefits for the United States, the important question in the context of my earlier posts is not simply whether the system’s aggregate benefits outweigh its costs, but whether its costs, which are highly concentrated and disproportionately borne by the American productive base, have begun to erode the domestic political foundation required to sustain it.
The extent to which large segments of the population perceive globalization as economically punitive, enriching financial, political, and industrial elites while degrading their own material position, is politically significant and animates the populist backlash associated with Trump, undermining the domestic consensus necessary to maintain an expansive and costly global leadership role.
There's some truth, a lot of truth, in your post. I don't believe that the economic damages you cite were inevitable "features" of the dollar centric global system. We could've used that privilege to invest dollars. Instead, over the decades we have abused that dollar privilege to accumulate excess public and private debt for consumption of excess discretionary goods. The question of whether the benefits of dollar dominance would outweigh the costs depended on how the system was implemented. Unfortunately our choices were not good and the resulting answer is no, not in the long term. That's where we are.
This post was edited on 6/22/26 at 10:26 am
Posted on 6/22/26 at 10:30 am to Victor R Franko
quote:
During this slow time, I thought I'd post the information below that I posted in the SoH thread.
Good information.
Here are some excerpts from the Al-Jazeera live feed:
quote:
What did JD Vance say?
Here’s a recap of the US vice president’s comments at the Burgenstock news conference:
Negotiators made “a lot of good progress”, and a “very good foundation” has been set for a successful final deal with Iran.
Despite the Iranian delegation threatening to walk out, negotiations continued until early this morning.
JD Vance said the Iranians didn’t walk out. He said there was a little bit of threats, a little bit of whining, that they threatened to walk out but didn’t actually walk out.
IAEA nuclear inspectors are set to return to Iran to verify its compliance with the preliminary agreement.
The US could agree to unfreeze Iranian assets for the purchase of US soya beans, corn and wheat.
The Strait of Hormuz “is open”, the US wants to make sure of proper coordination on Lebanon and technical talks will continue in the days and weeks to come.
Posted on 6/22/26 at 10:33 am to Stinger_1066
This was a hot topic a couple of days ago - Trump said he was considering asking the Syrian president to intervene in Lebanon and take on Hezbollah directly.
From Al-Jazeera's live feed:
From Al-Jazeera's live feed:
quote:
Lebanon praises Syrian president’s stance on non-intervention
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam held a phone call with Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani over fast-moving developments in the region.
The call follows recent comments by President Trump suggesting Syria could step in to confront Hezbollah “if Israel cannot finish the job”.
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa explicitly rejected the prospect of a military incursion in an interview on Sunday, saying Damascus is exclusively pursuing diplomatic, political, and economic avenues to restore regional stability.
Salam commended what he described as the “brotherly and forthright stance” expressed by al-Sharaa, according to a statement from Lebanon’s prime minister’s office.
Posted on 6/22/26 at 11:11 am to Stinger_1066
Posted on 6/22/26 at 11:12 am to wdhalgren
quote:
Instead, over the decades we have abused that dollar privilege to accumulate excess public and private debt for consumption of excess discretionary goods.
I agree that the moral hazard you identify is substantial. History, far beyond the U.S. case, offers ample reason to doubt whether any political system can wield such structural advantages prudently or for extended periods without distortion.
Posted on 6/22/26 at 11:40 am to 1999
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"This is probably what we're most excited as Americas — the Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country. That is a MAJOR milestone for the American people."
"And the first step in permanently denuclearizing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran. And that's exactly what we wanted to do. That's exactly what we asked to happen."
"We made a lot of great progress on other nuclear talks. And that leads me to the final thing that we wanted to accomplish, which is actually set up the process for the technical negotiations that will follow."
Posted on 6/22/26 at 11:43 am to Ailsa
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Only joking. The Israeli army found it of course. And they killed twenty Hezbollah terrorists while capturing it.
The sad thing is our media is so bad we can actually joke about it. Western journalists see no Hezbollah - hear no Hezbollah - and find no Hezbollah activity even when they are reporting from a funeral surrounded by Hezbollah flags.
In fact tomorrow, both BBC News and Sky News will probably pretend that the twenty Hezbollah terrorists killed by Israel were actually doctors, journalists, pregnant women or 18 month old babies.
Hezbollah are embedded throughout Southern Lebanon - they have turned key sites inside almost every village into a military target and the top journalists from our biggest media platforms have never exposed ONE SINGLE story about any of it.
They have been there years. And they never saw any of it. They should never be forgiven.
Terrorist mouthpieces. That is all they are. Look at the video - see what is right under their noses:
Posted on 6/22/26 at 11:43 am to Ailsa
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Under President @realDonaldTrump and @VP, we continue to make the world safer and more prosperous.
In line with the ongoing productive talks in Switzerland, Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz and to permit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into their country.
As part of the framework, Treasury has issued a temporary 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil.
Posted on 6/22/26 at 11:45 am to hawgfaninc
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The United States Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued a 60 day waiver of U.S. sanctions on all Iranian crude oil and associated products until August 21st, 2026. The waiver allows Iran to sell oil to anyone, including the U.S., except for Cuba, North Korea and occupied Ukraine.
This post was edited on 6/22/26 at 11:46 am
Posted on 6/22/26 at 11:46 am to Ailsa
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Trump is playing the board he actually has, not the one the hawks or the isolationists want to pretend exists.
According to Hanson, the decision to avoid a ground occupation of Iran while still hitting their nuclear infrastructure was the correct strategic choice.
Iran is too large, too hostile, and too well-backed by Russia and China for the United States to occupy and administer without repeating the Afghanistan and Iraq disasters.
By keeping the objectives narrow ... no enrichment and an open Strait of Hormuz ... Trump avoided turning a limited operation into a generational quagmire right before the midterms.
That part is sound positioning. Where the position gets dangerous is what comes next. Hanson makes it clear that Iran now gets to decide how they test the new reality. They will probe. They will calculate exactly how much they can get away with before triggering a response. And because Trump is operating under real political constraints ... oil prices, House control, and the historical pattern of midterm losses ... the regime has every incentive to find out how serious he actually is.
This isn’t a finished victory. It’s a sharp middle-game position where the next series of moves will determine whether the initial strike was a strong opening or an expensive feint.
If the response to the first real violation is weak or delayed, the entire board state collapses in Iran’s favor. If it’s fast and disproportionate, then the earlier restraint starts to look like calculated patience instead of hesitation.
Hanson isn’t calling it brilliant. He’s calling it the least bad move available ... with the hardest part still ahead
This post was edited on 6/22/26 at 11:53 am
Posted on 6/22/26 at 12:03 pm to BayouBengal51
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Most people are completely fixated on this MoU, treating it as the main story. In reality, it is largely just a pretext, a tool being used to advance much deeper games. The real game playing out is something else entirely, and people should be looking elsewhere to understand what’s truly happening.
Few days ago, one faction of the regime’s gangsters has been faking letters supposedly from Mojtaba Khamenei to claim that negotiations with the US were personally approved by him. Others quickly learned the trick and started playing the same game.
Today, one of the rivals claimed they have access to Mojtaba’s confidential letters with the current negotiating team. It turned into a full-blown public shitshow. Honestly, it was both ridiculous and entertaining. The pigs are turning on each other.
Let me lay out the full picture for you.
Khamenei, to coup-proof his rule, massively empowered the IRGC and turned it into a powerful state-within-a-state. But then he became afraid of his own creation, so he deliberately prevented power from concentrating in any single hand and allowed different competing cartels to form inside the IRGC.
Most of the top figures in these cartels are deeply corrupt, ideology is just a facade for them.
At the same time, he personally cultivated a loyal base from the poorest and most broken layers of society: fanatical, powerless people who were extremely loyal to him personally and would attack anyone on his command like rabid dogs.
After his death, the IRGC clearly took full control of the country, but they are far from united. They’re now openly fighting each other for the real seat of power.
Trump, with his deal-making style and the huge carrot of money, especially after the naval blockade pushed them into real poverty and begging, has brilliantly pushed these corrupt elements forward.
This has created open clashes with the more ideological factions. One of these hardliner cartels belongs to Saeed Jalili and includes figures like the cleric Mahmoud Nabavian, a sitting MP.
Today, Nabavian went on state TV and announced he wanted to reveal Mojtaba Khamenei’s confidential letters criticizing the negotiating team and the current deal. He started reading them live, but they cut him off mid-sentence. The network later called it a serious violation, announced legal action, and even one of the directors resigned and was rebuked.
This was their last desperate attempt to stop the negotiating team from reaching Geneva. But it failed. Just hours later, the other side, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and his crew, still made it to Geneva.
A few days ago, they even put the approval of this Memorandum of Understanding to a vote in the Supreme National Security Council. Everyone approved it except one person, and many believe that lone dissenter was Saeed Jalili, from the same cartel as Nabavian.
Meanwhile, another IRGC cartel, Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, tried to sabotage the surrenderist negotiators’ trip to Geneva by claiming they had closed the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM immediately clapped back and said the Strait is wide open (and ships are moving freely). Perfect own-goal.
Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. He understands these animals better than anyone. He’s weakening the regime from within, without firing a single shot. Just as he predicted, as soon as the corrupt ones smelled real money, they sold out the entire regime and its ideology without hesitation.
Let the man cook, trust the process
Posted on 6/22/26 at 12:34 pm to Stinger_1066
quote:
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa explicitly rejected the prospect of a military incursion in an interview on Sunday, saying Damascus is exclusively pursuing diplomatic, political, and economic avenues to restore regional stability.
Trump clearly knew that even suggesting publicly that Syria enter into Lebanon that Turkey and its proxy Syria would immediately do the opposite as it would give the impression to the rest of the Arab world that Turkey & Syria were subservient to the US. It was a smart calculated strategy he put out there because it did exactly what he was looking for it to do which like many in the TDS world do caused them to take the exact opposite position publicly. Rubio, Hegseth, and Trump deserve the credit for coming up with this strategy at Camp David this weekend.
Posted on 6/22/26 at 1:41 pm to MrLSU
quote:
Trump clearly knew that even suggesting publicly that Syria enter into Lebanon that Turkey and its proxy Syria would immediately do the opposite as it would give the impression to the rest of the Arab world that Turkey & Syria were subservient to the US. It was a smart calculated strategy he put out there because it did exactly what he was looking for it to do which like many in the TDS world do caused them to take the exact opposite position publicly. Rubio, Hegseth, and Trump deserve the credit for coming up with this strategy at Camp David this weekend.
LOL What
Trump threw out the idea last week and anyone familiar with how the new Syrian govt has treated religious minorities would oppose it
This post was edited on 6/22/26 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 6/22/26 at 1:43 pm to jlnoles79
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President Trump has summoned senior Pentagon officials and major U.S. defense contractors to the White House on Wednesday, according to the WSJ.
The meeting will focus on expanding munitions production and rebuilding U.S. missile stockpiles, which have reportedly been heavily depleted during the Iran War.
Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg warned defense industry leaders earlier this month to prepare for the meeting, which is expected to be tense, as Trump pushes companies to speed up production.
Posted on 6/22/26 at 2:17 pm to LSUnKaty
quote:
LSUnKaty
That was a perspicacious post of the first order! I suggest that anyone who didn’t read this go back and carefully peruse it.
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