- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
wdhalgren
| Favorite team: | Georgia  |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 4653 |
| Registered on: | 5/27/2013 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/4/26 at 6:40 pm to Dawg4Life47
quote:
UGA has a larger NIL budget than IU and look at the team difference
You have no idea what those numbers are. Furthermore, you have no idea how Indiana would fare head to head against Georgia or against Georgia's full SEC schedule.
quote:
If it’s both, then what are we talking about? You need heavy portal action.
You're a Georgia fan, right? Get out your wallet. The prices are rising. Oh, wait I know, you contribute with message board advice to Georgia's head coach.
0
Sorry, Deeprig, but you're not responding to the OP. What you're saying is that didn't like the game Bobo called in the Sugar Bowl. The point of the OP is that, despite all of the cries that he is a horrible OC, the season data say just the opposite.
So what happened in the Sugar Bowl. Just the normal things that happen all the time. Players were out due to injury, or hurt during the game. Players had a bad game, players on the other team had a good game, mental mistakes were made on the field and the sidelines. Their kicker made some coin-flip kicks and ours missed one. Officials made calls and missed calls, and the football bounced in random directions. None of that means that one game defines Bobo's season as a coach or a playcaller. Even if it did, Kirby Smart would understand that and act on it without needing input from the message boards. Anonymous message boards are not a useful resource for staffing questions.
Edit: and Cash only had two catches. It's not like the game plan was structured around him.
So what happened in the Sugar Bowl. Just the normal things that happen all the time. Players were out due to injury, or hurt during the game. Players had a bad game, players on the other team had a good game, mental mistakes were made on the field and the sidelines. Their kicker made some coin-flip kicks and ours missed one. Officials made calls and missed calls, and the football bounced in random directions. None of that means that one game defines Bobo's season as a coach or a playcaller. Even if it did, Kirby Smart would understand that and act on it without needing input from the message boards. Anonymous message boards are not a useful resource for staffing questions.
Edit: and Cash only had two catches. It's not like the game plan was structured around him.
quote:
For all those saying we did well with the roster we had
Do you believe that those numbers serve up guarantees of a single game outcome? Clearly they don't and the reasons for that go far beyond coaching. Starting with the fact that, statistically speaking, small sample sizes (Like "1") yield extremely variable results.
In other words, 12-2 is a lot more meaningful than 0-1. Over the course of a season, is where the Team Talent is more meaningful. And even then it takes good coaching to achieve a good outcome. That combination, coaching and talent, is why Georgia won 12 games, and the SEC title over some other very talented teams on that list.
But even then there are other variables that have shifted and made those team talent numbers less meaningful. One that you didn't bother to mention seems very obvious, but maybe not. So, rather than give you the benefit of considerable doubt, I'll explain it using an example or two.
Trinidad Chambliss is probably better than the zero HS rating, or 86 Transfer rating that he was given by the recruiting service that made that chart. In fact, Ole Miss' team ranked 11th in the SEC, and they've won every game played so far, except for one. So, talent data can't, don't, won't foretell every game outcome, regardless of coaching. And the transfer portal makes those numbers even less meaningful, because experience is important, and nobody has a good handle on transfer ratings.
Taking all of that into account, plus inexperience, injuries, and competition vs other good teams, it's perfectly accurate to say Georgia did well with the roster they had. But, if all of this leads you to say Kirby Smart must now switch to a portal based roster, please take out your checkbook and write a very long number and mail it to whomever they ask you to buy for next year's team. Because those numbers are about to get a lot longer and money doesn't grow on trees. Otherwise, stop complaining about the portal because you're part of the problem.
re: If Kirby was indeed the second Saban…
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/4/26 at 3:49 pm to SemperFiDawg
quote:
IMHO Kirby’s broken this rule to perhaps his own detriment.
IMO, your opinion is not worth a flip, and if the "H" stands for Honest, it's not that either.
re: During the '25 regular season, Georgia's offense was #1 in the SEC in Points Per Drive.
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/4/26 at 3:19 pm to lewis and herschel
quote:
I would actually say the most important job is to get points when they matter. Big-time goal line plays with elimination on the line.
Fremeau's data shows a high correlation between OPD, DPD, some associated stats, and team success. Probably because teams that score more points per possession (on average) than their opponents usually end up with more points at the end of the game (when they matter). It's not intended to be a guarantee for any specific possession, game or season outcome. Nothing purports to capture that except the delusion of fools. What it does show is that Georgia's offense operated at a very high level relative to their SEC peers in 2025.
During the '25 regular season, Georgia's offense was #1 in the SEC in Points Per Drive.
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/4/26 at 2:56 pm
The #1 job of an offense is to score as many points as possible every time they have the football, as long as the game is in doubt. IMO, the best single statistic to assess how well an offense does that is Brian Fremeau's OPD (Offensive Points per non-garbage Drive). Fremeau calculates OPD as points scored by the offense (not defense or special teams), during regulation play (overtime doesn't count), per non-garbage possession (his definition at bottom if you're interested).
The numbers below are calculated using data found on Fremeau's BCF Toys website, and adapted (by me) to show average OPD for matches between SEC teams during the 2025 regular season. After reading and learning from some experts on this message board, based on the data below I've reached the conclusion that every team in the SEC must fire their offensive coordinators immediately.
Team OPD
GEO --- 3.54
VAN --- 3.43
OLE --- 3.25
TEN --- 3.10
TAM --- 2.83
ARK --- 2.59
ALA --- 2.54
TEX --- 2.43
MST --- 2.01
MZZ --- 1.92
OKL --- 1.69
KEN --- 1.66
LOU --- 1.66
AUB --- 1.58
SCA --- 1.45
FLO --- 1.43
(from the bcftoys.com website)
Garbage vs Non-Garbage Possessions
Unless otherwise noted, all ratings and supporting data on this site are calculated only after first filtering out garbage possessions defined as follows:
An offensive possession of two plays or fewer that runs out the clock to conclude the first half, or that runs out the clock to conclude the second half with the score tied, and does not result in a turnover, score, or field goal attempt.
A possession in the second half of a game in which eight times the number of the losing team's remaining possessions plus one is less than the losing team's scoring deficit at the start of the possession.
An offensive possession of two plays or fewer by the losing team with a score deficit greater than eight points that runs out the clock to conclude the game.
An offensive possession or non-offensive scoring possession by the winning team leading by eight points or fewer at the start of the possession that runs out the clock to conclude the game.
The numbers below are calculated using data found on Fremeau's BCF Toys website, and adapted (by me) to show average OPD for matches between SEC teams during the 2025 regular season. After reading and learning from some experts on this message board, based on the data below I've reached the conclusion that every team in the SEC must fire their offensive coordinators immediately.
Team OPD
GEO --- 3.54
VAN --- 3.43
OLE --- 3.25
TEN --- 3.10
TAM --- 2.83
ARK --- 2.59
ALA --- 2.54
TEX --- 2.43
MST --- 2.01
MZZ --- 1.92
OKL --- 1.69
KEN --- 1.66
LOU --- 1.66
AUB --- 1.58
SCA --- 1.45
FLO --- 1.43
(from the bcftoys.com website)
Garbage vs Non-Garbage Possessions
Unless otherwise noted, all ratings and supporting data on this site are calculated only after first filtering out garbage possessions defined as follows:
An offensive possession of two plays or fewer that runs out the clock to conclude the first half, or that runs out the clock to conclude the second half with the score tied, and does not result in a turnover, score, or field goal attempt.
A possession in the second half of a game in which eight times the number of the losing team's remaining possessions plus one is less than the losing team's scoring deficit at the start of the possession.
An offensive possession of two plays or fewer by the losing team with a score deficit greater than eight points that runs out the clock to conclude the game.
An offensive possession or non-offensive scoring possession by the winning team leading by eight points or fewer at the start of the possession that runs out the clock to conclude the game.
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/4/26 at 1:21 am to Bulldawg2010
quote:
When have I ever said Kirby has to go?
Here's what I said:
quote:
But he and Bulldawg10 are working hard to convince people that Kirby has to go.
I asked for clarification earlier about your self described mission here. You didn't respond. I'll ask again. What does this mean?
The younger Dawg nation. That’s who we need to convince my brother.
I took that to mean you're trying to convince people to join your fight against Kirby Smart's management of his coaching staff. Was I wrong?
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/4/26 at 12:17 am to Jefferson Dawg
quote:
If hes an undercover troll: Fine, whatever. They slip through
Not undercover. He's not even trying to hide it. Most likely a fan of some school that didn't even make the playoffs, or got monkey hammered like his brothers at Alabama.
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/4/26 at 12:15 am to Jefferson Dawg
quote:
Saved
This troll is really bad and he can't count. But he and Bulldawg10 are working hard to convince people that Kirby has to go. They might have him now that Kirby has fessed up to snapping the football when he wasn't supposed to.
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/4/26 at 12:08 am to SemperFiDawg
quote:
Quite the quandary for those who worship at Kirby's feet. You hold him up as infallible, but he says he isn't. So is he right even when he's wrong, wrong even when he's right, both, or neither? Don't get angry. These are the positions you are obliged to defend when you chose blind allegiance to anything.
The quandary is for trolls like you, who can't make their point without blatant lies. I've never said Kirby's infallible. What I'm saying is that you are just a simple message board troll, coming to a Georgia board and spouting nonsense. You're not capable of critiquing Kirby about doing his job right or wrong, because you're not capable of knowing the difference. To your credit, you've essentially owned up to what you are. Starting a thread to demand that Georgia's football coach fix the problems you perceive; that's about as clear as it can get.
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/3/26 at 11:23 pm to lewis and herschel
quote:
There is only winning and not winning. The rest are just words
Yep, and winning is what Kirby Smart does better than anyone else in the business. The words of his detractors are just lies on a message board.
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/3/26 at 11:13 pm to Bulldawg2010
Have you convinced enough of the young Dawg Nation to get Kirby fired yet? How's that working out for the troll network? You should widen your effort. Did you see my suggestion for recruiting on the Auburn, Tennessee and GT boards. They all share your dislike of UGA's success and would make good foot soldiers for your cause.
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/3/26 at 11:03 pm to playmakers in space
quote:
What are you asking for here, some peer-reviewed source?
Did you expect to just spout BS about everyone dealing with the same injuries as Georgia in the last two playoffs and not be challenged? Did you expect nobody to point out that the Ole Miss team we played was missing practically nobody of importance. Did you expect nobody to point out that we're the only team in these two seasons to lose their starting QB in their last game before the playoff? You can make things up to support your opinions, but expect to be corrected when you do. This is a peer reviewed message board.
quote:
That's great that Ole Miss had good injury luck this year. That's not the norm in the SEC and it certainly hasn't been the case for Georgia for however many years in a row. Ole Miss is also technically on their backup QB and had their running back with a gimped shoulder as well.
FooManChoo said that we've had some critical missing pieces in our last two playoff losses. That's a fact. You explained that away by saying it's inevitable. In other words, you were saying that injuries had nothing to do with our two losses because everyone has them just like we did. That's not a fact, it's just the opposite. I explained why.
You don't like that, having your lies exposed, then maybe reflect on the fact that this is a Georgia board. Side with the detractors of our coaches and our program, expect some pushback from Georgia fans. You don't like the pushback, then deal with it like we've had to deal with the constant trolling from idiots on this board, starting threads to taunt Georgia fans who disagree with their bashing of incredibly successful Georgia coaches and players.
BTW, Ole Miss is not on their backup QB, technically or otherwise. Chambliss won the job just like Jake Fromm won the UGA job in 2017. And half of Georgia's team is "gimped" in one way our another. But we were the with team "missing key players", not Ole Miss. Our missing players didn't lose their jobs, they're unable to play.
You continue with the lying to support your troll buddies and their UGA bashing. They come out after every loss. SemperFiTroll's "Hats off to Bobo" thread was a taunt aimed at Georgia fans. The entire premise of this thread is a taunt. Kirby's won multiple playoff games and he's done it against top 4 teams, not Tulane and James Madison. So, I'll keep on pointing out you and your buddies' BS on this board.
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/3/26 at 6:37 pm to lewis and herschel
quote:
That's a lot of excuses. Lost our QB to the future starter
Apparently you missed the reason for my "excuses". The poster to whom I responded said missing key players due to injury was inevitable in the playoffs. His implication was that injuries played no role in the outcome because both teams were equally affected. I pointed out the facts to him.
As for 2024, you call pointing out that Georgia had a rarely used backup QB starting his first game in the playoffs an excuse. I call it a reason, because very few offenses would do well in that situation.
quote:
Game was winnable, bad decisions cost us this game.
Fine, pick and choose your excuses. A very inexperienced center also cost us the game. Missing 5 starters on defense cost us the game. Not having our best RB on 2nd and 3 at the goal line cost us the game. But if you want to join the negadawg rebellion and march on Butts Mehre with pitchforks, be my guest. You and SemperFiTroll can explain Kirby's bad decisions to his face and demand he get it right or face the consequences. He's always looking for feedback from armchair experts.
re: Why can't Georgia win a Playoff Game in the Modern Expanded Playoff?
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/3/26 at 5:32 pm to playmakers in space
quote:
This is going to happen every year. When you play 14-16 games in a season and 9 of them are conference games, you're going to lose several important pieces by the end of the year, it's inevitable at this point.
Did you actually research this, or just saying things that validate your opinion? On defense, every single one of Ole Miss top 20 tacklers this season (by number) played in the Sugar Bowl. On offense, every one of their top 5 rushers played, and every one of their top 10 pass catchers also played. As far as I can tell, they had one OL out, but he wasn't much of a contributor. What important pieces were they missing?
As for Georgia's two playoff appearances, losing your starting QB in game 13 is not a trivial loss, it's a critical loss and most teams will struggle against playoff competition with a first time starter. Losing your starting center in game 12 is pretty important too, and Tolliver made a mental error that may have cost us the Ole Miss game. Nate Frazier was hurt in game and not available for a critical final goal line series. On defense we lost Kyron Jones, who had basically won a starting job, in midseason. We lost starters Jordan Hall in game 8, Joenel Aguero in game 12, Gabe Harris in game 13, Jacorey Thomas just before halftime in in the Sugar Bowl due to a questionable targeting penalty.
I'd say the differential attrition of the two teams played a big role in this year's playoff loss.
re: Offensive YPP in Big Games Over 5 years
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/3/26 at 12:43 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
The younger Dawg Nation. That's who we need to convince my brother.
Interesting quote. Why do they need to "convince" the younger Dawg Nation; convince them to do what? Have an uprising and take control of the Georgia football program? :lol: :bow: We're witnessing a coup by the Nega Dawg message board brain trust, an attempt to overthrow the status quo led by Kirby Smart and his cronies in Athens GA. That always works well. If Kirby doesn't see it their way, they'll just shite all over the message boards and keep on "convincing" in perpetuity. They'll do it after Kirby's gone too, I guess, because winning every game is not in the cards and that's about the only way to improve on Kirby's track record.
They should recruit from the Auburn, Tennesse, Florida, and tech message boards. A lot of those folks will get on board with the idea of taking the controls away from Kirby.
quote::confused: This is bizarre.
The 50+ year olds, it's too late for them, they are too far gone. Remembering glory days of days long gone in the 90s
re: So Who We Rooting For Now
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/3/26 at 11:14 am to Bulldawg2010
quote:
Wasn’t there a report that came out that Beck and Bobo didn’t see eye to eye. Beck was a horrible teammate? Etc.
None of that speaks poorly of Bobo. Reports, which is a euphemism for rumors, say all kinds of things. There were "reports" that Miami paid Beck $4M this year, which is a lot of incentive if true. Also, in 2024 the internet was riddled with Georgia fans, or people claiming to be Georgia fans, who badmouthed Beck virtually the entire season, picking up where they left off badmouthing Stetson Bennett. College players read that stuff and it makes them feel unwelcome. Now they have immediate options and they frequently look elsewhere, which is one reason we have a growing cottage industry in internet college football trolling.
Gunner Stockton had 16 pass attempts in the 2024 regular season, against Tennessee Tech and UMass. I doubt Bobo ran Beck off, because he knew Carson was the best and most experienced QB on his roster, troubles against a tough 2024 schedule notwithstanding. But the combination of "fan" bashing and a massive paycheck were more than enough reason for Beck to leave.
quote:
Then he goes to a team with arguably less talent.
If he wins a title….I’m a firm believer it’s not a talent issue. It’s coaching
This is the point I was making in my earlier response. Nothing about Miami making the playoffs with Beck, or even winning it all, says anything negative about Mike Bobo. Beck could win a title at Miami. He could've won a title at Georgia but, because of different circumstances, he didn't get the opportunity to play in the playoffs that he's getting at Miami. In 2023, cfb had a 4 team playoff and Georgia didn't make it in with one 3 point loss in the SECCG. That was a championship caliber team. In 2024, Beck didn't participate in the playoffs because he was injured.
In 2025, Miami made it in with two lossess and didn't even play in the ACCCG. And, unlike Bobo, Miami is actually getting a chance to use their experienced 5th year senior QB in the playoffs. During the Ohio State game, Cristobal described Beck as having "old eyes". What he meant was that Beck (and, by extension. Miami) is the beneficiary of the time, experience and coaching he had in Athens.
quote:
The dominance is over, I was wondering how long it would take once Saban left.
Saban's last national championship was 2020, a screwy Covid year where players and entire teams opted out or were forced to miss multiple games. In the playoffs, Alabama faced a Notre Dame team that played a very weak schedule and lost 34-10 to Clemson in the ACCCG, and an Ohio State team that played 6 games in the regular season and no CCG.
Other than that asterisk season, Saban's dominance has been over since 2017 when they beat UGA with the help of some bad officiating.
re: So Who We Rooting For Now
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/3/26 at 9:03 am to Bulldawg2010
quote:
I think it would be hilarious if Miami won it all.
The bobo apologists would just try to paint it in a way that doesn’t make their damn good dawg look bad though.
I'm struggling to follow your train of thought here. Could you elaborate on what you mean? Specifically, why would you deem it "hilarious" if Miami won it all? And how would that make Mike Bobo look bad?
re: Offensive YPP in Big Games Over 5 years
Posted by wdhalgren on 1/3/26 at 8:00 am to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
Two things can be true at the same time.
1) We really miss Monken.
2) The probability of hiring someone as good as Monken is really low.
And then it's my opionion that next season is piss or get off the pot time for Bobo. He'll have a returning quarterback that he's always thought really highly of and also one of the best offensive lines in the country, assuming Freeling comes back. Or if Freeling leaves, we figure out something good at left tackle.
There are reasons for statistics like the ones cited in the OP to be considered unreliable. One is small sample size. Another is confounding variables. Both are present in the "analysis" above. It's a waste of time trying to explain those things here, because they should be obvious to anyone attempting an honest comparison of Bobo and Monken.
As for next season, it remains to be seen if Gunner starts at QB. Bobo thinks highly of Gunner (as he should), but at this point he also has a better understanding of Gunner's skillset and how it affects what his offense can do. Bobo is a professional and he's gonna use whoever is best for the job.
quote:
1) We won the SEC.
2) We beat every team we played.
3) We were fortunate/lucky enough to beat UT.
We also were fortunate against AU. A bad team.
4) We beat all our rivals.
5) We started 2 freshman OL. We played a ton of guys.
6) We are young.
7) We still retain most of our players-more so than anyone.
8) We had a great recruiting class.
9) We will pick up a few pieces in portal.
I, like everyone wished we had a few things/plays back-damn yall ppl who want to burn it down are dumb. I spent $1500 with my boys on Sugar Bowl and 8 hours driving back today and told them I do it again. For every "bad" decision we faked a punt-helluva play-came back after being down 6 and 10. I live and breath UGA football- disappointed YES! Discouraged-NO. For a reference I am 52. You young folks are spoiled rotten.
WE ARE NOT ALABAMA UNDER SABAN. That will never happen again with free agency. EVER!
Good post. We had a great season. Inexperience and injuries were an issue all season long, but the coaches did an exceptional job to win 12 games and the SEC title for the 2nd year in a row. Until we manage to find a coach as brilliant as SemperFiTroll, sometimes we're just gonna have to settle for winning a dozen games and beating all our rivals.
Popular
29
